I came across this Substack essay by someone called Mick Ryan about the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region of Russia, a move that seems to have taken Moscow completely by surprise:
This Ukrainian operation represents a very significant effort on the part of the Ukrainians to reset the status quo in the war, and change narratives about Ukraine prospects in this war.
It is the kind of strategic risk-taking that I don’t think is well understood in many Western capitals anymore. For nearly two generations now, Western nations have been able to cut military spending. None of them have faced existential threats, even though the War on Terror did require a significant response for more than a decade after 9/11.
The slow decision-making cycles in Western military and political circles, and in military procurement, is indicative of institutions that no longer understand the imperative to act quickly and decisively while taking major risks.
This is not the case for the Ukrainians. They have faced an existential threat since February 2022 (and more broadly, for the entirety of their existence as a people) and have a very different political and military decision-making calculus than those of their supporters. A nation and a people who face an existential risk from their neighbour tend to think differently from those who do not.
Mick Ryan is a useful commentator, been following him for years.
You could reasonably extend the argument to the Israeli/Gaza conflict. Arguably comfortable Western Governments are not ‘geared up’ to think of existential threats and their consequences.
DJ
Except that here in the UK, our government is the existential threat to the country and it appears to relish that, the process and the consequences.
Does anyone know why there has been so little action on the Northern Front which, after all, would seem to be the obvious front to fight on? Terrain, lack of strategic importance?
The very northern bit is quite forested, which makes it very easy to defend. The Russians found this out when they had their original drive on Kiev.
None of the land has any strategic importance, other than the river crossings and the Perekop peninsular to Crimea. In that regard it resembles the main fronts of WWI.
It is now a meat grinder, and the winner will be the one that doesn’t crack or somehow finds some tactics to break the stalemate. (Such as tanks in WWI, the F15/F16 hopefully for Ukraine.)
So how far can the Russians be pushed back into their own territory before the immediate military benefit of using tactical nukes outweighs the long-term strategic cost of using them?
This is the kind of complex military/political situation that makes me glad we have such a razor-sharp man at the helm here in the US. I am sure that in between his naps and doses of amphetamines the “Big Guy” is right on top of things.
cf Israel
This concept perfectly applies to the current American political landscape. The Democrats have changed who votes, how we vote and who counts the votes. The Republicans can’t be bothered to respond in kind.
Mr Putin thinks of himself as a second Stalin – but he is more like another Nicholas II, a militarily incompetent leader.
But that is unfair on Nicholas II – Nicholas did not want war, it was forced upon him. Whereas Mr Putin actively decided on war (in spite of then Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, and many others, going to Russia and pleading with Mr Putin not to invade Ukraine – warning him that there would be terrible consequences for Russia if he did so) and then totally messes it up.
Mr Putin seemed to believe that the Ukrainian armed forces of 2022 were the same as Ukrainian armed forces of 2014, he totally missed the arming and training of the Ukrainian military over eight years.
Even now, in August 2024 (two and half years into a major war) Mr Putin still does not understand.
Russia may (possibly) still win this war – but it will be in spite of the leadership, not because of it.
The leadership of Mr Putin has been an incompetent disgrace.
He is secret police – not a soldier. He is only good at dealing with “enemies” who are unarmed – indeed are chained up in some cellar.