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Understanding Turkish geopoliticsPerry de Havilland (Wiltshire) · Economics, Business & Globalization · International affairs · Middle East & Islamic · Military affairs · Russia · Science & Technology · Ukraine August 8th, 2023 |
 33 comments to Understanding Turkish geopolitics |
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tl;dr: the Turks are & always will be on the side of the Turks. And on balance, it’s better to have them more or less on our side than more or less not. And that’s also pretty much how the Turks see NATO too. And while they’re happy to make coin trading with Russia while also providing arms to Ukraine, ultimately Turkey & Russia are natural rivals, not friends. In the long run Erdogan wants to see Russia well & truly fucked over.
Anyone who attributes to “strategy” anything that Erdogan is involved in is delusional at best.
Erdogan is another in Putin’s line of irredentist leaders seeking to recreate ancient glories of their former empires. The payback for that in Putin’s case will be the utter destruction of Russia; in Erdogan’s case, that remains to be seen. He may get away with living his dream; odds are that he will not, given the economy he’s bequeathing Turkey, along with his re-Islamization of the place.
Putin’s place in history is virtually set; he’s going to go down as the responsible party for Russia’s final denouement and destruction. Erdogan still has room for pulling it out, but he’s likely to also be remembered as the clown prince of stupid.
Here’s a quick marker for you: Look at the uniforms. Any idiot seeking to recreate the “ancient glories” will have his palaces (a sign in and of themselves…) guarded by those wearing elaborate fancy uniforms pulled up out of history. Putin’s personal guards? Gaudy and bedecked, same as Erdogan’s. They’re men of the same sort, delusional autocrats full of themselves, and totally incapable of building anything lasting.
You want to see someone to worry about? Then, look for someone whose guards are wearing workaday clothes, and who works out of a storefront. The assholes who build elaborate palaces and headquarters are not the real deal; they’re more the sort of poseur you can count on eventually coming a cropper. See for examples one Adolf Hitler, and Benito Mussolini…
It’s the same in the corporate world; once a big, successful company builds its massive and elaborate signature headquarters building, that’s usually a marker that the wrong sort of egotist CEO has taken over, and the company has reached its peak. It’s all downhill, from there.
Erdogan is an idiot. The thing you need to worry about is not some “grand strategy of Turkey”, but the fact that he’s not got one and will be flailing around in short order as all the repercussions of his bad decisions come crashing down around him.
You didn’t actually watch the video, did you 😀
LOL… I did, actually. I think Perun is way off base with this.
Erdogan is about as far as you can get from an international political genius, whose mastery of economics inspires awe in others. Raw fact? The man is a small-time domestic Turkish populist who caters to the worst aspects of Turkish irredentism. Elsewise, he wouldn’t be in Syria, nor would he have done his best to block US access to Northern Iraq.
Fifty years from now, most Turks are going to curse his name. He’s at about the point that Putin was in 2000, well before the consequence of his actions came home to roost.
Perun wants to ascribe wisdom to things that are entirely absent of wisdom or long-term thinking. Erdogan was the dimwit who blew up the nascent Turkish-Israeli alliance, which would have served to make both parties much better off politically and economically. He’s an ideologue who can’t see past his ideology; he’s pissed off major financial backers in the Gulf, and with his dealings with Saudi Arabia, don’t expect Turkey to come out of all this at all well. In fact, expect that when the consequences of the Kurdish demographic growth curve come to full fruition, he’s going to be faced with a set of implications that are going to blow up what’s left of the Turkish state.
Pretty sure that not what Perun claimed. He was describing Turkish geopolitical thinking, not praising it. They are willing to play hardball to extract concessions & have a very compartmentalised notion of how the game is played. I’ve spent time in Istanbul & because the brother-in-law was a UN diplomat there, I’ve met Turkish establishment figures over a beer or six, and Perun’s description of how they think is pretty accurate: everything is a series of discrete chunks to be negotiated for, they offer nothing for free, and they have zero understanding of real world economics.
Perun also makes it clear Erdogan’s understanding of economics is… “unique” 😉
Kirk: If “gaudy”, “fancy”, “bedecked” palace guard uniforms “out of history” are supposed to be the indication that someone’s seeking to re-establish their empire, how is one supposed to interpret the red-coated, bearskinned guardsmen at Buck House, let alone the actual horse cavalry with plumes and cuirasses?
Erdogan is like a drug addict who is trying to heal his drug addiction by taking even more drugs. Drug addict can sometimes be very cunning in extracting money from people to finance his addiction but in the end he is doomed. 70% inflation means that he is stealing money from Turkish children and grandchildren. A true Ottoman VOMIT…
Regards
From Turkish English language television it has long been clear that the Turkish state wants Russia (the ancient enemy of the Turks) to lose – but Mr Putin did not seem to grasp this. Mr Putin thought that Mr Erdogan was his friend and ally – which shows that Mr Putin is divorced from reality, and (also) shows that no one in the Kremlin is in a position to tell Mr Putin the truth.
@Perry de Havilland,
Point I’m getting at is that ascribing what Erdogan is doing with Turkey as being part of some grand “Strategy” is insane; what other Turks think or have done in the past is irrelevant; it’s all Erdogan, all the time. He’s a loose cannon on the Turkish deck, and trying to say he’s got some scheme or plan in mind is purely delusional. I’m sure that other Turkish officials will try to have some effect on matters, but it’s all Erdogan, all the way down. Until it isn’t…
@ anon,
That pomp and circumstance lunacy has always been there; the stuff I’m talking about with Putin and Erdogan is the Potemkin Village sort of thing, where they’re trying to recreate past imperial glories… The monarchy in Britain has been there continuously, and it isn’t associated with the actual government. If Boris Johnson had put himself up in a palace, with fancy-dress toy soldier guards, that’d be a similar case. As is, the traditional crap associated with the various royal houses of Europe are not at all the same sort of lunacy.
All of it looks nuts to me, but I’m an inveterate small-r republican who thinks that all of that sort of thing is sheer waste and utter folly. Not, however, any of my business as a foreigner.
It’s a marker, though, for regimes like that of Putin; you find yourself emulating Third-World pretensions, don’t be real surprised when you wind up there.
There clearly is strategy underpinning what Erdogan does, even if much of it is not realistically attainable. I don’t think Erdogan wakes up each morning and just goes with todays urge.
It was certainly explained rather differently to me by various Turks. Erdogan is not a unique outlier, he really does win elections as he is representative of a definite strain of Turkish through. He is good at getting factions invested, and the internal dynamic is fairly different to the one in Russia. All that said, although I’ve chatted with insiders, I’m certainly not an expert on Turkish politics. Claire Berlinski, who I know, is much more au fait with the nuances of that, albeit her broader world views are a bit over-filtered through a layer of TDS & BDS.
ascribing what Erdogan is doing with Turkey as being part of some grand “Strategy” is insane
I’ll second that.
It seems to me it’s insane to produce an hourlong podcast talking about Erdogan’s “strategy”, so I skipped it.
Erdogan plays it by the ear and the gut, changes his policies frequently, is a kind of shrewd and crafty operator and opportunist, and has managed to keep power for quite a long time, proving that he is quite able, but not necessarily a strategist. He is not a guy that can be analyzed, categorized or predicted. And he is more reasonable and pragmatic than some East European leaders out there.
Erdogan is probably quite happy to see Russia and Ukraine fighting rather that collaborating.
Turkey becomes thus the dominant power in the Black sea, even more than it has always been.
Opportunist for sure. But when you look at his industrial strategies, this has been something that has been developing for a while. That said, the fundamental inability to face the economic consequences of what he does means it isn’t all going to happen the way he hopes (but Turkey is hardly unique on that score!). But it is not hard to see certain threads running through much of what he does. It’s really not random. To paraphrase something naval wonks say, long term strategy is “build strategy”. Russia & Turkey have mutually exclusive goals & unlike many other nations, as Turkey is in NATO, it is harder to plausibly threaten them with nukes.
Absolutely. But he certainly also sees Ukraine as a long term friendly trading partner as it has none of the incompatible aspirations Russia has, plus Bosporus access is much more important to Ukraine than Russia. Turkey wants to move the Turkic ‘stans very much into his orbit & out of Russia’s zone of control.
“But when you look at his industrial strategies…”
And, please, what are the “industrial strategies” of the US and Europe? Print heaps of money and spend it on ridiculous and absurd “net zero”? Erdogan’s policies are less ridiculous.
The objectives of the government of Turkey are those the Ottoman Empire had for centuries – the destruction of Russia and other powers that are deemed alien, and the spreading of Islam. The Ukrainian government has, de facto, now allied with the Turks – but it is a wartime temporary measure, the Ukrainians know that Mr Erdogan is not a friend of any infidel.
That Mr Putin was unable to grasp this, that he thought Mr Erdogan a friend, shows how out of touch with reality Mr Putin has become.
Jacob.
“Erdogan’s policies are less ridiculous” – not on creating money from nothing they are not, Mr Erdogan has produced vastly more (more – not less) inflation than most other countries. Nothing to do with Islam – you can read the Koran and the hadiths for ever and you will find no Keynesian economic policy in there, Mr Erdogan is following the modern Western economic playbook – he has just pushed it to an extreme not, yet, seen in the West.
The madness of inflation we see in Turkey was done in Russia decades ago – it discredited Western advice in Russia (for it was Westerners who advised creating Credit Bubble banking) and led to the rise to power of Mr Putin.
The madness of massive inflation is what Western governments will now do – to inflate away their debts, and to pave the way for a new international digital currency, total control of life by governments and partner corporations, totalitarianism – on the Public-Private partnership world “governance” model.
All hope that Russia might prove an alternative to that madness died when Mr Putin invaded Ukraine. Not that there was much hope in the first place.
What is your point? I was under the impression you didn’t think Erdogan had industrial strategies (which he clearly does).
The madness of massive inflation is what Western governments will now do
Oh, they have been doing this regularly since when? I think, at least since WW1.
the Ukrainians know that Mr Erdogan is not a friend of any infidel
And the Orthodox Ukrainians are also no friend to any Moslem (or Jew).
But in politics – religion is no longer the determining factor, Ukraine will accept help from anyone, and Turkey, as a significant regional power, with a long history of conflict with Russia is a natural candidate. Turkey, of course, does no HELP anyone, but will supply and provide this side or the other (or both), if the price is right.
you didn’t think Erdogan had industrial strategies
You call printing money “industrial strategy”? I call it an idiocy that is universally practiced.
You do know Ukraine elected a Jew as president, yes? 😀
No, I’d call that financial strategy, albeit a bad one. Industrial strategy is something quite different.
“Industrial Strategy” is about governments subsidizing certain industries – it normally works out badly. The “Green” industrial strategy will certainly end badly.
Expanding the money supply does subsidize certain industries – mostly Finance (the banks and entities such as BlackRock), and Real Estate – because people in Finance are not fools, they know they are playing a Shell Game – they need to get their “money” and turn it into real assets, such as land. Hence a Credit Money expansion turns into a Real Estate “boom” – which, yes, is a bubble, but at least the Finance people end up with something real. The value of the land may fall – but it will not fall to nothing.
Trouble is – if the West goes full totalitarian (like the People’s Republic of China) these people may loose their land just for offending the wrong person.
The origin of the modern West goes back to 877 AD when King Charles Bald of France formally admitted that he, unlike a Roman Emperor, had no right to take land from onw family and give it to another family.
That, secure land holding, is what makes the West the West (everything else is an add-on). It is what, for example, makes Texas different from Mexico (and most of Latin America), secure private land holding. And it is what made the Empire of the Hapsburgs part of the West – and the Ottoman Empire, which did not have secure private land holding, NOT part of the West.
If that, secure private land holding, goes – THERE IS NO WEST, THE WEST WILL HAVE DIED.
I would argue that we are well on the way to that situation.
In Scotland now, for instance, you need “planning permission” to rent out your spare bedroom. And if you are a “landowner”, the government may (often does) give money to your neighbours and force you to sell to them, at a price the government decides.
Secure private land-holding is on a very slippery slope.
You’ve essentially described urban America. You do have a chance in court to contest a land value assigned by government, but the government’s arguments usually prevail.
Peter Macfarlane and bobby b – grim indeed Gentleman, grim indeed.
Here is “Industrial Policy” …. why complain about Erdoagn?
Kirk – August 9, 2023 at 12:02 am:
At the start of the Iraq War? He didn’t. In fact, he lobbied Turkey’s National Assembly to vote to allow US forces to operate from Turkey. The vote was 264-250, with 19 abstentions and 17 absent (thus 12 votes short of the required absolute majority). I could not find a breakdown of voting by parties, but since the opposing Republican Party (178 seats) was vehemently opposed to the US request, it seems likely that most of the 363 AK members followed Erdogan’s lead.
Erdogan was and is a nasty piece of work, but on this point he was on the US side.
Not sure what your point is, Jacob. Personally I think industrial policies are always based on terrible ideas but yes, there is nothing groundbreakingly uniquely terrible about Erdogan’s questionable industrial policies.
Really? I doubt you’re ever been to Ukraine.
“nothing groundbreakingly uniquely terrible about Erdogan’s questionable industrial policies.”
Yes, that was the point.
He is copying some of the wrong policies that are widespread also in the US and UK.
Poniatowski – I condemn Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but let us not make up stories. Ukraine does not have a better history with either Jews or Muslims than Russia has. If anything it has a worse history with both – one should not make a up a false history and then imply it is proved with a Tweet (these days an X).
Ukraine does not have a history of Rainbow flags and Multiculturalism – it may pretend to have such an “Inclusive” culture in order to get Western support (and YES I might pretend the same thing for military reasons) – but we are all adults here, so let us not play these games.
Ukraine has not become a modern Western style Frankfurt School of Marxism “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion” place – let us not pretend that it has.
Mr Putin’s invasion is wrong because it is the invasion of a sovereign nation – a nation, not some Rainbow Flag joke.
As for ordinary diversity (small d – not Frankfurt School of Marxism big D Diversity) Russia is a more diverse place than Ukraine. For example, Russia has a vastly higher proportion of Muslims than Ukraine has – that is one of the reasons that the Tweet (or X) was a bit misleading.
One might as well pretend that Poland welcomes Islam.
What stories have I made up?
Not relevent. I wasn’t talking about history, I’m talking about Ukraine right now. Because my job, I’ve come here many times a year since 2001 (posting comment from a shitty hotel in Lviv).
What false history? I never mentioned history, I’m telling Jacob, who I doubt has ever been to modern Ukraine, I’m sure you haven’t either, mainstream “Orthodox Ukrainian” culture these days doesn’t care if someone is Jew or Muslim. Ukrainians doesn’t really even think about that – unlike people in Poland & that’s because EU wants to force Poland to follow Sweden & Germany to import millions of Muslims.
I’m Polish/Ukrainian (Russian speaking mother from Kharkiv, with extended family from Krasnodar), living in Denmark when not on the road selling agricultural equipment & support services (working for the Yankee dollar). Gotta laugh about westerners who don’t have first hand experience with Ukraine after 1991 telling people what Ukrainians think in 2023. Jews & Muslims weren’t a big deal in 1991, even less after 2014, elected Big Bad Jew President in 2019, and really, really, REALLY no one gives a damn in 2023. To many, Zelenskyy is like the archangel of Ukraine now, not hard to see why.
Poniatowski.
You linked to a film (on what used to be called Twitter) of some Muslims saying they were much better treated in Ukraine than in Russia because Ukrainians “believe in freedom”.
As you know well, there are not many Muslims in Ukraine (unlike Russia – where there are millions) – and if Ukraine really was a bastion of freedom, with people denouncing Muhammed for various alleged crimes, I rather doubt that they would like Ukraine, any more than they like what has been happening in Sweden.
Turkish English language news is not exactly fond of free expression in Sweden, but they have reported no such incidents in Ukraine.
By the way – I agree with you that Poland should not be bullied by the E.U., the trouble is not obeying E.U. orders means you do not get E.U. money.
A nation can not be independent and in the European Union – something Ukrainians should be made aware of.