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Political & military earthquake in Syria The brutal Assad regime has collapsed. That is one on the eye for Russia, always a good thing, seeing the end of the Russian navy’s only base in the Mediterranean. And one in the eye for Iran, also a good thing, meaning they have little to no ability to continue supporting what is left of Hezbollah… but the motley crew who have toppled the Ba’athist Syrian regime have more than a few black ISIS/Al-Qaeda flags in their midst, so regardless of very conciliatory statements by HTS towards Syria’s non-Islamic population and even Israel, it remains to be seen how this will shake out.
As a side note: when Patricia Marins predicted the rebel offensive would go nowhere, I became confident the rebels were headed for victory a week ago 😀
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So when do all the jihadists, I mean refugees, who fled from Syria to Europe to escape Assad get deported?
Not an unreasonable question, Martin. But hard to see why Labour would want to see the back of future Labour voters
Obviously HTS (which sounds like another UK railway fuck-up) are gonna sound nice to get the cash in for “re-construction”. Even the Taliban did that. At first.
The Syrian Civil War (if it can even be called that – the opposition were never exactly united) was never a war with black-hats and white-hats. It really was (is?) one where you wanted everyone to lose.
Perry, I agree it is a poke in the eye for Iran and Russia but it is also – potentially – a big score for Erdogan and that’s not good.
A victory for Turkey, Sunni Islam, in their centuries long struggle with Iran, Shia Islam. Most Syrians are Sunni – so this was always likely to happen eventually. Mr Assad pretended to be Sunni – but no one really believed him, as his family came from a minority sect that is closer to Shia than Sunni Islam.
Neither is fond of the West.
By the way – Mr Assad’s own Prime Minister appears to have back-stabbed him, in order to save his own skin. Not an astonishing development.
Mr Putin wasted a lot of resources in Syria – which is of no importance to the Russian people (most of whom have no interest in Syria).
Mr Putin is not the rightful Czar – he has no hereditary right to rule Russia, and his adventures in the Middle East, Africa and even Latin America (for example the support for the regime in Venezuela) in no way benefits the Russian people. He has also sold out the Russian people the the People’s Republic of China (which was really behind both the Islamic Republic of Iran – and behind Mr Assad) – Mr Putin needs to be removed.
The People’s Republic of China has suffered a blow from this – the dream of that dictatorship of ruling from China through Pakistan and Iran, and Iraq – and, via Syria and Lebanon, all the way to the Mediterranean Sea, has suffered a blow.
Pah. One tyrannical dictator of a tinpot failed state will soon be replaced by another, and a fresh flood of ‘refugees’ and ‘asylum seekers’ will soon follow, consisting of those who were in aupport of the previous tyrant and who are now in danger from the new one. There will be a realignment dance, and then everyone will get back to the normal Middle-Eastern modus of nationwide corruption, murderous religious strife, and (naturally) trying to wipe out the Joos. Expect the PRC to be right there with an eye on the main chance. Once again, untold millions of US ‘black’ money pissed away to no result whatever.
Meet the new boss.
llater,
llamas
I suspect that the “conciliatory statements” should be interpreted as “we are completely occupied with fighting our own war right now, so we currently don’t want to get involved in anything else”, and no more than that.
Fascinating turn of events.
Ironically, the HTS et al. actually owe their success to a chain of events that began with Hamas, which through its murderous rampage on 7 October 2023 precipitated Israeli military action both against it and its Hezbollah pals, seriously weakening the ability of the latter to operate in Syria.
Through it all, the US proved politically incompetent while the Russians proved militarily incompetent (something we already knew thanks to their “special military operation” in Ukraine).
As for the Iranian mullahs, boy, do they look silly now.
JJM,
And the Ayatollahs didnt look already look silly?
Good point, NickM. Now they look even sillier.
Who knows? Perhaps there’s a chance they will be next on the chopping block?
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
You vastly overestimate US power & influence, and even meaningful presence there. This happened because of Russian weakness.
This video contains a discussion over the ramifications of the fall of Syrian from what purports to be a well-informed Israeli perspective. The thesis is basically:
‘There are no good guys. It’s the bad or the worse.‘ Assad losing power removes a very close Iranian proxy and as Iran may have nukes, this is better for Israel in the long run and it may significantly weaken Iran and certainly Hezbollah in Lebanon, who now appear to have a fundamentalist Sunni regime as their neighbour, so the winner here may be the non-Hezbollah supporting Lebanese who can now work to remove the weakened by Israel already State-within-a-State that is Hezbollah.
The price for this is a Hamas-style regime in Damascus controlling (all but) all of Syria, but that will be one with essentially armed with AK-47s, PRGs and trucks rather than tanks and chemical weapons and certainly no risk of nukes.
This of course feeds into the bizarre narrative one sees in certain quarters that Israel supported Al-Qaeda and friends on a ‘worse is better’ basis, but if it wasn’t that, it would probably be some other theory.
The effects on Syria?
1. The Sunnis 80% of Syrians are rid of a hostile regime that was notionally secular socialist (Ba’athist) but incredibly brutal and was happy to be an Iranian proxy in Lebanon and elsewhere, and historically very hostile to Israel and the West. (Anyone remember Nezar Hindawi and the airline bomb attempt of 1986?). It seems that in the last days of the regime, it may have dawned on Assad that his best hope of survival would have been to be less hostile to Israel and, had he united the non-Sunni minorities and secular Sunnis in Syria behind a secular regime, and kept down the extremists, and kept Iranian influence out of Syria and hence Lebanon, then he might have offered something to a sufficiently large segment of the population to have had some support.
2. Turkey can now encourage the millions of Syrian refugees it hosts to return home.
3. Those in 2. may pass on the way in some of the various minorities, Christians, Alawites, Shia, Kurds, Armenians etc. and secularists who fear for their future under HTS.
4. What has happened, if it be so, with regards to the alleged stocks chemical weapons that the Assad regime held, now falling into the hands of HTS?
5. Lots of foreign aid will come pouring in courtesy of Western taxpayers which will lead to the usual results.
and/or
6. A Libyan-style disintegration of Syria into competing factions, with or without a new Alawite state in the coastal regions.
As the Kerryman (never) said ‘I wouldn’t start from here!‘.
Could be interesting times, will the new-old government finally make peace with Israel to spite their former Iranian masters?
This may actually be a difficult decision for Israel to accept as they would have to leave the geographic and economically important region of Golan for good as per Resolution 242 and would no longer be able to air strike inside Syria at will.
@PdH, who wrote:
“You vastly overestimate US power & influence, and even meaningful presence there. This happened because of Russian weakness”
Er – but that’s exactly my point. Over the past 20 years, the US has pi**ed unimaginable amounts of money at this region – literally, pallets of cash – and obtained – nothing. No power, no influence. It was bad enough under Obama, where they took his money and laughed at him behind their hands – but under Biden, they took his money and then just ignored him. They know the US is an empty vessel, and act accordingly. They know that Russia and China are not, and act accordingly. Not yet sure exactly what was the tippong point here, except that it certainly wasn’t due to any US influence, ‘cos there ain’t none. The US is the eternal simp of Middle East politics.
llater,
llamas
LA Times headline from 2016:
In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA
By Nabih Bulos, W.J. Hennigan, Brian Bennett
March 27, 2016 5 AM PT
Kind of sums up how schizo US policy was in Syria
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
Won’t Get Fooled Again – The Who
Except that’s not actually true from an external perspective (although it might be from a hapless domestic Syrian one). This weakens Russia & Iran, really quite a lot, which from a Western geopolitical perspective (& indeed Ukrainian & probably Israeli) is pretty damn nice.
I noticed the rebels were parked bumper to bumper outside the cities and didn’t seem afraid of any kind of airstrike or even artillery.
Who is going to miss Assad? Not me. But the idea that I hear bandied about by celebratory Syrians, that no one can be worse than Assad I think greatly underestimates the potential of depravity in the human soul. These people are Al Queda people, so I am not feeling positive about the future of the poor Syrian people. Last time we had this sort of thing in Syria, they were called ISIL and they were the very zenith (or nadir) of human depravity.
I think the future of the middle east as a whole depends on the progress of the Abraham accords and the progress of Trump’s policy to strangle Iran. I also greatly worry about a large amount of nuclear proliferation in the middle east. The embrace of North Korea by Russia normalizes them, and they have one really valuable product to sell on the international market. That coupled with the Biden administration’s determination to poke and prod the Russian bear, perhaps trying to draw the US in to war to hamstring the Trump administration, is very worrisome. I think we are closer to the use of tactical nuclear weapons than we have been since 1945. I imagine there is a lot of backchanneling going on to Russia from Trump, evidenced by the fact, for example, that Tucker Carlson, who is close to the Trump administration, is currently in Russia, and has just posted an interview with Lavrov. (I haven’t listed to it, but will when I find time.) I hope it is enough to offset the utterly reckless behavior of the “Biden” administration. (Biden in quotes because I doubt he has much to do with it. To call Biden a “lame duck” president is the understatement of the year. More like the duck has had its legs amputated, is in a coma on a respirator, and the doctors are talking to the family about options for organ donation.)
Syria, I expect is going to be pretty far down the list of priorities though unless we get a resurgence of ISIL type organizations which Trump squashed last time.
I also wonder to what extent Syria’s future will be part of the discussions that Trump and Putin have regarding Ukraine. He has set the foundation for that in Paris this weekend.
Any clue what life is like today for the average Syrian dishwasher or doctor? Has it changed, or is it just an exchange of demons? Are they celebrating, or are they hunkered down fearfully?
My assumption is that they excused the line of condemned wretches waiting for summary execution and brought in a whole new line of people with different bumper stickers to take their place.
Martin, that was actually not schizo, but heartwarming and philanthropic.
The human race benefitted.
I am of a different opinion.
One of the things that western observers and commentators utterly fail to take into account is the tribal mindset of the populations under discussion. The mindset is so alien to westerners that they persistently and consistently misunderstand it. The difference in mental processes are as different in fundamental operation as a steam engine and a gas turbine. Both can be used to propel a ship through the water and from an outside observers point of view, are equivalent but their way of working is miles apart.
We have tried regime (or dictator) change in both Libya (with Gadaffi Duck) and Iraq (Saddam Hussein) with disastrous results. Maybe, just maybe, those countries needed and can only be held together by a strong ruler. Without that ruler, then the tribal aspects arise and you have civil war. Anyone recall what happened in Yugoslavia once Josip Broz (Tito), a strong dictator died? Was Yugoslavia better under Tito or better once he was no longer holding the country together. Similarly was Libya or Iraq a more stable and better place to live under the rule of the respective dictators?
Would I have liked to live in either Libya or Iraq under Gadaffi or Hussein? No, but I’d be even less likely to want to live there after they were removed.
Maybe, just maybe, western nations causing regime change and saying “Just be like us and here is our election system which is, of course, the very best so life will be milk and honey from now on and we’ll all live happily ever after” may not work out quite as expected. Treating a Great White Shark like your friendly Labrador mutt is unlikely to work out BECAUSE both have a different mental process and a different world view of things.
Similarly, if you look at pre- and post- Colonial Africa you can see tribalism not only dominates the populations thinking but can no more be separated from the national psyche than the nervous system in all its fine detail can be separated from a human. Anyone remember Rwanda and the Tutsi and Hutu? It is almost inconceivable to a westerner that people could turn upon their neighbours and commit atrocities but viewed from a tribal point of view, it is, if not acceptable, at least understandable. Or maybe a western style democracy would have cured or prevented that?
So Assad has been deposed. Yay us. Now all they need is a fair and honest election system, bacon sandwiches (who doesn’t love bacon?) and a fully funded Social Security system and this time next year, you’ll be able to book your holidays in Beirut (which was once called The Paris of the Middle East). Or maybe, just maybe, tribalism and the many fragmented groups will turn on each other without the strong and brutal hand of a firm ruler to unite them and make an already just tolerable existence an utter hell on earth.
I’ll put my money on the hell on earth scenario and look forward to the west pouring in vast amounts of cash, material, food and treasure as well as the blood of their young men in the form of “Peacekeeping” troops. These unfortunates will, at least, form a common enemy and when the various factions are killing them are sparing their own countrymen (but NOT their own tribe). Rinse and repeat, just as in Libya and Iraq.
Such tribalism and its associated fighting and killing has been going on for thousands of years and no amount of western intervention will overturn that by this time next Tuesday. Not our circus, not our monkeys. Make all the “oh dear, how sad” noises you like but realise that western leaders or sentiment will have the slightest effect.
Not really a time for celebration, eh?
In the long run the collapse of Yugoslavia is a good thing. The Serbs don’t like it, because they think they should be in charge of everyone else, but the other nationalities aren’t exactly hankering after a reunification.
Do you really think that having a shockingly authoritarian country held together by terror is worth keeping because the split brought out into the open the hatred that had long been hidden and denied?
Trump seems to be of like mind to you regarding tribes. I see him choosing to let the tribes exhaust each other.
As to general US feelings, we can spend a lot of time and money and lives over there and be hated, or we can NOT do that and be hated. We’re kinda broke, so I see us going the cheap-hate route this time.
What say the rest of the West?
@Phil B,
I think you make a great point but it is worth pointing out that not all strong men dictators are alike. There are places where quite successful and liberal, in a conservative sort of a way, For example Singapore, most of the Emirates in the UAE, to some extent Qatar and Bahrain and Saudi seems to be headed that way. Some of these countries I wouldn’t want to live in (though for sure I’d be quite happy living in Singapore or Dubai — if it weren’t so damn hot anyway), but they all sure are better than Iraq under Saddam.
What makes the difference? I think to some degree the luck of the draw, but certainly what makes many of these places good, even excellent, is their engagement with the west and their desire to trade with the first world. This really is a core principle of libertarianism. Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations—entangling alliances with none. It’s an idea as old as Jefferson. We should practice it with the countries in the Middle East.
I do think though that Trump’s Abraham accords when extended will be a transformation in Middle East politics, especially if it is tied to a strangulation of Iran. As to Syria, I’m afraid they probably replaced one bad guy with another. Who knows which monstrous leader will be better. All I know is I’m glad I don’t live in Aleppo.
And BTW, Beirut was a lovely city and tourist destination as recently as a few years ago. I know some people who live there and the Hamas attack on Israel has ultimately brought unbelievable trauma to that beautiful country and city. Without them the Hezbollah gangs would have stayed in an unstable peace. May these Hamas guys die a painful and drawn out death for the hell they have brought on many innocent people, Jews, Muslims and Christians alike.
Phil B: “we” didn’t depose Assad & “we” didn’t cause the Syrian civil war.
Also, hard to see the downside of the end of Yugoslavia once the war itself was done.
Assad survived this long because every time his enemies had him on the backfoot militarily, the Russians & Iran’s proxy Hezbollah reinforced him.
Russia is now a shadow of its former power just three years ago & Israel ruthlessly blew the hell out of Hezbollah, making the limits of Iranian power brutally clear.
That’s why Assad fell. Yesterday the leader of HTS explicitly said he could not have won without Israel laying waste to Hezbollah.
Perry de Havilland (Prague): “Phil B: ‘we’ didn’t depose Assad & ‘we’ didn’t cause the Syrian civil war.”
The people of Syria and the former Yugoslavia do share a common characteristic. They are ready to blame everyone for their troubles.
Everyone except the true culprits: themselves.
Hardly exclusive to Syrians and Yugoslavians. It’s just that certain other nationalities get a better press for blaming others for their woes than these two peoples.
Mr Ed: “6. A Libyan-style disintegration of Syria into competing factions…”
Yes, but how would we tell?
“Mr Biden wasted a lot of resources in Ukraine – which is of no importance to the American people (most of whom have no interest in Ukraine). ”
FIFY
If Ukraine, and thus Europe’s security doesn’t matter to “the American people” (whatever that means), then USA really is retreating into splendid isolation & the sooner Europe comes to terms with the end of US geopolitical dominance, the better.
Not convinced that is actually true though (either Europe moving onto a post-Pax-Americana reality or the USA relegating itself to becoming only a regional power).
No Perry – this did not happen because of Russian weakness, it happened because the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the “Party of God” Shia fighters from Lebanon did not have enough strength to save the Assad regime – as they have done before. And that is because Israel has been hitting these Shia forces.
Whether having the Sunni, rather than (indirectly) the Shia, in control of Syria will be less bad (or worse) – remains to be seen.
As for Mr Putin wasting Russian resources in Syria – well he is an idiot, Syria in no way matters to the Russian people. But then it does not matter to the American people either – and the American government has also spent a lot of money there.
Mr Biden is pledging to send even more aid to Syria – whilst people in North Carolina remain homeless from the Hurricane, and FEMA does everything it can to make it HARDER to rebuild in the rural area that was hit so badly – because the Feds want people to sell their land to vast corporations.
Very much an international agenda.
Ukraine – Russian forces continue to advance, although they are not gaining anything that could be of any possible use to the Russian people. Russia has vast amounts of farm land and natural resources – Russians do not need anything that is in Ukraine, this whole war is Mr Putin’s (demented) vanity project – because he wants to pretend he is a great leader (which he is not).
President Trump wants to stop the Russian advance by a ceasefire – which is calling Mr Putin’s bluff. Mr Putin says he wants peace – O.K. then, agree to the ceasefire.
The trouble is that President Trump is not in office again till January 20th – Mr Putin’s forces may have advanced rather more by then.
I think that Ukraine’s security should matter more to European states than the USA. The Europeans are just decadent in expecting the USA to do the work for them. It is not 1955 any more, European states are rich enough to support Ukraine if it really matters to them. Britain can apparently afford to spend £5 billion a year hosting bogus asylum seekers in hotels. That buys a lot of guns and ammo.
One problem that President Trump faces is that, even after he is office again on January 20th 2025, Mr Putin may find some excuse NOT to agree to a ceasefire – as his forces are advancing in Ukraine.
Most Americans do not want to send more money to Ukraine (although Perry does not seem to have heard this), but President Trump needs something to MAKE Mr Putin agree to a ceasefire – i.e. to stop the advance of Mr Putin’s forces.
That “something” can only be the threat to send a LOT more military aid to Ukraine – which the American taxpayers will not like. But that threat is the only thing that will convince Mr Putin to agree to a ceasefire – i.e. to stop the advance.
By the way – no one in Russia really believes that Ukraine is governed by “Nazis”, as Mr Putin falsely claims, they know that the President of Ukraine is a Jew.
Mr Putin is lying – and everyone knows it.
“They lie, we know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, but they continue to lie”.
Tell Mr Putin that he must stop the advance or unlimited amounts of American military aid will be delivered to Ukraine – that is the only way to make that lying toad Mr Putin agree to a ceasefire and stop the advance.
Untrue. Time & again it was Russian airpower & resupply via the SLOC terminating in Tartus that kept Assad’s war machine viable. Those tanks, artillery shells & SAMs came from Russia. Russian & Iranian support was the basis of Assad’s power, just Iran alone was demonstrably not enough. Enough Syrians understood that to cause morale to collapse.
Johnk – the Western European states are in a terrible mess, their governments are falling apart. They can not, or will not, even defend their own borders against migrants from Africa and the Middle East – let alone go to war with Russia. And even the British government is not mad enough to risk thermonuclear war.
Without the United States Western Europe is, militarily, nothing – it is the contents of an empty bag. The trouble is that the United States is also heading for a terrible economic crises – for which President Trump will, unjustly, be blamed – even though this economic crises has been many decades in the making.
However, I still think President Trump can stop the advance of Mr Putin’s forces in Ukraine – by getting Mr Putin to agree to a ceasefire, by the threat of a vast increase in American military aid to Ukraine.
The American taxpayers will not like that threat – but it would not actually involve spending the money, it would mean threatening to do it, in order to make Mr Putin stop the advance of his forces.
Deterrence.
And, in the longer term, finding someone in Russia who is actually interested in the welfare of the Russian people – who Mr Putin does not care about.
His war, this vast waste of Russian lives and resources, proves that Mr Putin is unfit to rule.
Old Jack Tar – air power can only do so much. Without the Shia fighters, on the ground in Syria, from Iran and Lebanon, the Sunni fighters in Syria (from various groups) were bound to win in the end.
Certainly Mr Putin was in alliance with the Shia – and like his alliance with the People’s Republic of China, this proves that Mr Putin is no friend of the Russian people.
As Mr Navalny (the leader the West said they so admired) often said – how can Mr Putin be a friend of the Russian people when Mr Putin is an ally of powers that have been enemies of the Russian people for so many centuries.
Islam (of various sorts) has been an enemy of the Russians for a thousand years – and long before that the Indo-Europeans (ancestors of the Russians) were pushed out (or killed) of areas by the ancestors of the east Asians (and, much later, pushed out of other areas, or killed, by the Mongols), only retaking those areas in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Mr Putin has an odd choice of friends for someone who poses as a Russian patriot.
When Eisenhower was NATO Supreme Commander before becoming President he said words to the effect that if American troops were still needed in Europe after a decade, he’d consider that as a failure of the alliance.
Here we are 70 years after Eisenhower said that. Completely embarrassing. The EU may be partly to blame. Had the EU been established primarily as a European defence alliance and not a vehicle for economic and political homogenisation it may have been a worthier enterprise.
It’s not just the EU though: Britain is embarrassingly reliant on America, and I don’t think it’s possible for Britain to credibly pursue an independent policy of Washington outside a few trivial areas. The desperate way successive PMs bleat about the so-called special relationship is quite depressing.
Paul:
I think that is what Trump will do. Offer Putin the choice of a ceasefire now, or else the USA will go all in for Ukraine. One thing Trump knows is the art of the deal. If Putin has any sense he’ll take the offer. But does he have any sense? He’s been in power for 24 years and seems to have lost the low animal cunning which used to sustain his corrupt and authoritarian rule.
Have you seen the percentage of GDP going to Ukraine from Poland & the Baltic states? Far higher than USA or any Western European nation.
@JohnK
If Putin has any sense he’ll take the offer. But does he have any sense?
Even though Putin is a bad dude he is certainly smart. I think all the evidence is that he is very much wants to get a deal in place. As I think I mentioned earlier, Tucker Carlson, who is very close to Trump, is currently in Russia interviewing, among others, Lavrov, Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. This seems to me to be clear backchannelling to begin the process of making a deal. And the other party, Zelenskyy? I think it is crystal clear from his Paris meeting with Trump that he knows that he needs to make a deal and his aspirations to get back all the land Russia has taken is impossible. His focus is on security guarantees.
The only question is — will the Biden administration screw things up so badly that nuclear weapons get involved, at which point I think it goes beyond the point where a deal is possible. And, FWIW, I think that is a non trivial possibility. I think there are some in the Biden’s military complex who are not entirely opposed to the idea of a “limited” nuclear exchange.
Interesting vids all over Xitter of victorious rebels declaring “on to Jerusalem!”
Perry:
Yes, Poland and the Baltic states get it. But Western Europe is decadent, and expect the USA to do the heavy lifting for them. I cannot blame the American people for thinking that their rich European allies might do their bit for once, when the enemy is literally at the gate. Could they not cut their bloated welfare states by a couple of per cent to pay for defence? Seemingly not, so whose fault is it?
Well… by the standards of most recent US Presidents and Vice-Presidents, Putin is smart indeed!
Also by the standards of most, if not all, recent leaders of the UK, Germany, and France.
That is nothing to do with Putin’s ethical standards, of course.
Still staying off-topic:
It seems to me that the real divide in Europe is not between Eastern and Western, but between countries where the anti-EU/anti-immigration parties are accepted as legitimate partners in debate, and the countries where they are demonized.
The latter include Germany and France; and no other country of much consequence.
“on to Jerusalem!”
Words are cheap.
However the downfall of the relatively supportive Alawites and their likely replacement by a disorganised pot pourri does not bode at all well for the 10% Christian minority. Irrespective of various European countries having stated their intention to stop processing Syrian refugees there are going to be a whole lot more of them – unless we really are dealing with a kinder, gentler form of jihadism.
Having said that an influx of Christians would at least make a change and hopefully not further increase the proliferation of “Turkish” barbers and nail bars in our towns.
Perry – please spare us the “percentage of GDP” tap dance, without American aid Ukraine would have lost the war years ago. Close to 200 Billion Dollars has been taken from American taxpayers (“not much if you say it quick”) although how much actually got to Ukraine and how much went to the pockets of the corrupt establishment in the United States is open to discussion.
JohnK – yes and I would support such a policy by President Trump.
Tell Mr Putin that he must agree to a ceasefire, no more advances – or the United States will massively INCREASE support for Ukraine. American taxpayers will not like that threat, but it is the only way to get Mr Putin to stop the advance of his forces in Ukraine (which in way benefits the Russian people) and agree to a ceasefire.
If (if) Mr Putin still refuses to accept this deal – then have him KILLED. The Russian people desperately need new leadership – a leader who actually cares about the Russian people, not someone who continues to throw their lives away on a vanity project war. If (if) Mr Putin will not agree to a ceasefire – then it is time he left this world.
I know what I just typed – and I thought about it before I typed it.
Paul:
That is less than 100B $/year since the start of the war: small change relative to the US budget under Biden.
But enough with the sarcasm. What i’d like to know is how much money “Biden” has forced “us Europeans”, and the American people, to pay to Putin, by raising energy prices. Has anybody attempted an estimate?
And btw how much money did “we” have to pay to the Ayatollahs?
I know, I know: “we” must accept much of the blame; but fracking is not so easy in Europe, for both geological and legal reasons; and in any case, European energy policy has been shambolic for a long time*. What changed and made Putin’s war (and Iranian aggression by proxy) feasible, was American energy policy.
* but, coming to think of it, the high European energy taxes go against Putin’s interests, by decreasing demand.
HTS are currently a proscribed organisation in the UK. This potentially means that anyone expressing support or cheering on their victory could be prosecuted. Given this would include numerous British politicians and journalists, I can’t see this happening of course.
Go back & reread what I wrote in the knowledge I wasn’t replying to you, but to a specific statement by JohnK regarding the political willingness of (generic) ‘Europeans’ to spend treasure in support of Ukraine. My observation is thus entirely unrelated to the absolute quantity of aid. Spare me irrelevant asides.
Perry and Snorri.
200 Billion Dollars is not small change.
Mr Putin will try and take as much land as he can before January 20th – this in no way benefits the Russian people (who have all the farm land and natural resources they could want), this is just a continuation of his mad vanity project war.
On January 20th Mr Putin must be clearly told – no-more-of-this, cease fire (at once) no more advances. Obviously Mr Zelensky will agree to this (whatever he says now) – as he depends on American military support. There must be peace – no more killing and maiming. “But Western Europe says….” – Western Europe is NOT united, and is not relevant anyway.
If (if) Mr Putin refuses the deal – then forces in Russia must be worked with to remove Mr Putin from this world.
Mr Putin has done great harm to the Ukrainian people – and he has done even more harm to the Russian people, more of whom have been killed.
This war was pointless – I say again, it was the personal vanity project of Mr Putin.
Of course, Perry and Snorri know that 200 Billion is not small change – but I still think that President Trump should threaten to “double down” if Mr Putin refuses to agree to a ceasefire – and an end to all advances by his forces.
But as well as the stick – there is also the carrot.
An end to sanctions is a good incentive – as would be the unfreezing of assets, the idiot Mr Putin left hundreds of Billions in fiat “Dollars” which has been frozen – he could be offered this money back IF he agrees to an end to the war, no more killing.
Why Mr Putin did not first convert this “money” into a proper store of value (such as gold or silver – to be physically stored in Russia, not Belgium), rather than just a medium of exchange (such as the absurd fiat “Dollar”, or Pound, or Yen, or Euro – they are all worthless fiat currencies) and store the commodity money in Russia, has never been explained – but then Mr Putin is an idiot and idiots do idiot things.
He may not even know that real money has to be a store-of-value (which needs to be something that people choose to value before-and-apart-from its use as money) not just a medium-of-exchange.
To go to war with vast sums of “money” overseas in the West was still demented.
If (if) Mr Putin refuses both stick and carrot – then have-him-killed, work with Russian forces to do so.
As for Syria….
I take it that the ten million “Dollars” that the American government offered for the killing or capture of a certain person is no longer on the table – now that this Jihad person has become head of government in Syria.
Well… not for me!