We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
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Here is an information-dense video with far more than the usual talking points on Ukraine. It is not just about what is going on. It is useful understanding that helps with how to reason about what is going on.
Topics covered include:
Manpower and production;
training on Western weapon systems;
survivability of tanks;
effects of long range weapons;
possible trajectories of the war over the next year or so;
the USA’s self-interest in the war.
It provides good context for the usual talk of things like F16 deployments and map changes.
Given the agreement today to confiscate Russian assets (and Mr Putin was an idiot to have 300 Billion Dollars in American government IOUs in the first place – it should also be noted that the Russian Rubble is also a fiat, i.e. Credit Bubble, currency – it is based on nothing other than threats from the government, just like the Dollar and the Pound) China and other powers will continue to quietly get out of American (and other Western) IOUs (so called “securities” or “Treasuries” – bonds, debt instruments), most likely they will buy physical gold and silver and stockpile it under their physical control (in their own countries).
The American government debt market will NOT collapse at once – as (as many people have noted) the banks and so on in America and elsewhere are not really independent commercial enterprises (private enterprise) they are part of the Corporate State and will continue to “buy securities” (buy American and other Western government debt – “buy” it with “money” created by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks), they will continue to “buy Treasuries” because they will be TOLD to do so (anyone who thinks that America in 2024 is still a capitalist economy is mistaken).
However, over time the Dollar and other Western currencies will become less and less important – which will not bother the international elite, as they are planning to replace them with an international fiat currency anyway.
In 1933 the United States government de facto defaulted on its gold debt to private citizens (in 1935 the Supreme Court, 5 to 4, declared that defaulting on the gold debt and voiding, violating, the gold clauses in all contracts, public and private, was fine), in 1971 the United States government defaulted on its gold debt to other governments (up till then, whilst private citizens had been cheated, defrauded, foreign governments could still get physical gold for their Dollars) – so the United States has been a totally fiat (fiat – will, command, whim) economy for 53 years.
However, today is still important – it means that if someone “buys U.S. government debt” they may not even get fiat “money” back.
Therefore no one should buy U.S. government debt (or the debt instruments of other countries) – and, over time, fewer and fewer people will.
Today is NOT the end of the Credit Money West – but it is the beginning of the end.
Go watch it. Simply the best no agenda analysis I’ve seen anywhere.
Based on watching Russian state TV station 1tv RU news programmes since late 2021 there is now the same vibe as Soviet TV back in 1988 / 89. This became very obvious around the run up to the Victory Day parade. Which was a somber affaire. Just like the last October Resolution Parade in 1990.
This current summer offensive is the one last push for Russia. When they fail there is nothing left. Except for Putin maybe to push for a Escalate to Deescalate crisis as a last throw of the dice like he tried to do in the summer of 2022. Before dissuaded.
As the Democratic Party have made it very obvious they will not accept any result in November where they lose no matter how the voters vote I’d guess the Russians to make their last big play during the total anarchy the Democratic Party create post election.
The only good news is that in recent appearances of the Real Vladimir Putin on Vremya on the few occasions he comes out of the bunker office he genuinely looks old and ill. Not quiet Brezhnev the last few years walking corpse. But close.
Whether Mr Putin wins or loses in Ukraine the Credit Money West has already lost – even if Mr Putin is killed, as he may well deserve to be (as vast numbers of Russians and Ukrainians have died due to his incompetence), it will make no difference to the collapse of the Credit Money West – which will happen.
The collapse of the Credit Money system was inevitable – but the decisions made, including the decision today to confiscate Russian owned American Treasury I.O.U.s, have brought that collapse forward. It will happen before the end of 2025 – with such things as a 90% decline (in real terms) of the American stock market likely over the next year or so. The other countries of the Credit Money West will also suffer economic collapse.
The question now is – what will replace the present system.
Will there be a return to liberty (a turning away from the Credit Money Corporate State – of “Stakeholder Capitalism” which is not capitalism at all) – or will there be a move towards global tyranny based on an international fiat (order-command-whim) currency.
It is true that the West would, most likely, have suffered economic and societal collapse anyway (I do not deny that) – but by its actions it has made this certain, and brought it forward.
The present system will collapse in 2025. Indeed the process has already started.
However, none of this justifies what Mr Putin has done. Not only has he greatly harmed Ukraine – he has also led vast numbers of Russians to their deaths.
War is not like a re-enactment – at the end the dead do not stand up again, they stay dead.
I fear that it is the People’s Republic of China (already by far the largest manufacturing power in the world – more than twice the manufacturing output of the United States) will emerge the winner from all this – and, contrary to the delusions of Mr Putin, the People’s Republic of China is no friend of the Russian people.
Whether he knows it or not – Mr Putin has betrayed Russia, has betrayed the people. Even if he wins in Ukraine – the dead Russians (and dead Ukrainians) will not come alive again.
War is not a form of entertainment – at least not for sane people.
I fear that it is the People’s Republic of China … will emerge the winner from all this
There is an argument that says Xi egged Putin on in Ukraine because he expected Putin to come off badly so that China could force a deal on Siberia. Plausible?
I sometimes think of a scenario where the Third Reich invades Poland on 1 September 1939 but by 20 December 1941 has had little real success.
The initial German attempt to employ a coup de main with paratroops against Warsaw was a frightful disaster. Although portions of the Polish western border regions have been taken, along with part of the Baltic coast, the Wehrmacht is now largely stalled, still slugging away at the Poles, who occasionally sink battleships and destroy industrial and military targets in eastern Germany.
This always helps me get some better sense of just how badly the Russians have performed against Ukraine in their cack-handed invasion.
There is an argument that says Xi egged Putin on in Ukraine because he expected Putin to come off badly so that China could force a deal on Siberia. Plausible?
It assumes that Xi knew more than Putin (or made a better guess).
In particular, it assumes that Xi knew that Zelenskyy would not accept Biden’s offer of a ride.
It assumes that Xi knew more than Putin (or made a better guess).
Hard to know.
In particular, it assumes that Xi knew that Zelenskyy would not accept Biden’s offer of a ride.
Zelenskyy took pretty much everyone by complete surprise by proving to have balls of steel. Several Ukrainians I know (none of whom voted for him) now have great respect for him.
Zelenskyy took pretty much everyone by complete surprise by proving to have balls of steel.
As i said before (perhaps not explicitly), i see Zelenskyy as the latest in a line of fighters against fearful odds, going back at least to Miltiades, Leonidas, Themistokles, Epaminondas, and Horatius Cochles.
I admire Bibi, too, but not for fighting against fearful odds: I admire him for fighting on in spite of adverse international propaganda.
Russia has always suffered from delusion, particularly when it comes to military matters.
Modern warfare is going lower and lower in scale; today’s infantry squad and platoon has to contend with issues that were the exclusive purview of battalion commanders and staffs back during the Second World War. They control equivalent firepower, as well, if they’re part of a modern army.
Russia is still operating as though it were fighting in WWI or early WWII. They’re not a learning organization, in any way, shape, or form: They don’t learn from their mistakes, and keep repeating them. The utter lack of real professionalism and low-level leadership is killing them by the thousands, but what do they do about that? Nothing. They keep throwing men and material at the Ukrainians in the same old way, hoping that they’ll somehow gain some success.
Frankly, if they were at all rational? They’d have had an immediate after-actions review around the 5th of March, 2022, and then immediately sued for peace and withdrawn from Ukraine, before wiping out the youth of an entire generation. The epic and incredibly unprofessional execution of the advance on Kyiv should have served as a wake-up call for the leadership, and they should have withdrawn to have a long think about the direction they’ve been going for the last thirty years, and considered that, just perhaps, they were on the wrong course. Instead, they’ve doubled-down on the stupid, and at the end of it all, I’m morally certain we’re going to see a collapse of the entire house of cards. The floods earlier this spring, and all the infrastructure failures that went on? Signals, my friends, signals. The urban areas around St. Petersburg and Moscow are not the leading indicators for the health of the Russian people or their state; those indicators are out in the hinterlands, where most live without access to modern health care, medicines, educational facilities, or even rudimentary indoor plumbing and heat. I’ve got a friend who was a US Bureau of Indian Affairs doctor; that’s how he paid for his education. The stuff that he saw in his travels across Russia while out in the countryside? His description was that most of the Russians he’d met would have found the conditions at the Pine Ridge or Rosebud Indian Reservations here in the US a marked improvement… Which is a mind-boggling thought. He was pretty sure that the alcohol problems at Pine Ridge were actually better than most of what he saw in Russia.
Interesting guy. You ask him what he thinks about the Soviets or modern Russia being considered a superpower? He’ll laugh hysterically at the notion, and I think he’s probably right. Russia is not a modern country in the terms that count.
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Given the agreement today to confiscate Russian assets (and Mr Putin was an idiot to have 300 Billion Dollars in American government IOUs in the first place – it should also be noted that the Russian Rubble is also a fiat, i.e. Credit Bubble, currency – it is based on nothing other than threats from the government, just like the Dollar and the Pound) China and other powers will continue to quietly get out of American (and other Western) IOUs (so called “securities” or “Treasuries” – bonds, debt instruments), most likely they will buy physical gold and silver and stockpile it under their physical control (in their own countries).
The American government debt market will NOT collapse at once – as (as many people have noted) the banks and so on in America and elsewhere are not really independent commercial enterprises (private enterprise) they are part of the Corporate State and will continue to “buy securities” (buy American and other Western government debt – “buy” it with “money” created by the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks), they will continue to “buy Treasuries” because they will be TOLD to do so (anyone who thinks that America in 2024 is still a capitalist economy is mistaken).
However, over time the Dollar and other Western currencies will become less and less important – which will not bother the international elite, as they are planning to replace them with an international fiat currency anyway.
In 1933 the United States government de facto defaulted on its gold debt to private citizens (in 1935 the Supreme Court, 5 to 4, declared that defaulting on the gold debt and voiding, violating, the gold clauses in all contracts, public and private, was fine), in 1971 the United States government defaulted on its gold debt to other governments (up till then, whilst private citizens had been cheated, defrauded, foreign governments could still get physical gold for their Dollars) – so the United States has been a totally fiat (fiat – will, command, whim) economy for 53 years.
However, today is still important – it means that if someone “buys U.S. government debt” they may not even get fiat “money” back.
Therefore no one should buy U.S. government debt (or the debt instruments of other countries) – and, over time, fewer and fewer people will.
Today is NOT the end of the Credit Money West – but it is the beginning of the end.
Go watch it. Simply the best no agenda analysis I’ve seen anywhere.
Based on watching Russian state TV station 1tv RU news programmes since late 2021 there is now the same vibe as Soviet TV back in 1988 / 89. This became very obvious around the run up to the Victory Day parade. Which was a somber affaire. Just like the last October Resolution Parade in 1990.
This current summer offensive is the one last push for Russia. When they fail there is nothing left. Except for Putin maybe to push for a Escalate to Deescalate crisis as a last throw of the dice like he tried to do in the summer of 2022. Before dissuaded.
As the Democratic Party have made it very obvious they will not accept any result in November where they lose no matter how the voters vote I’d guess the Russians to make their last big play during the total anarchy the Democratic Party create post election.
The only good news is that in recent appearances of the Real Vladimir Putin on Vremya on the few occasions he comes out of the bunker office he genuinely looks old and ill. Not quiet Brezhnev the last few years walking corpse. But close.
So maybe we get lucky this time. Unlike in 2020.
Whether Mr Putin wins or loses in Ukraine the Credit Money West has already lost – even if Mr Putin is killed, as he may well deserve to be (as vast numbers of Russians and Ukrainians have died due to his incompetence), it will make no difference to the collapse of the Credit Money West – which will happen.
The collapse of the Credit Money system was inevitable – but the decisions made, including the decision today to confiscate Russian owned American Treasury I.O.U.s, have brought that collapse forward. It will happen before the end of 2025 – with such things as a 90% decline (in real terms) of the American stock market likely over the next year or so. The other countries of the Credit Money West will also suffer economic collapse.
The question now is – what will replace the present system.
Will there be a return to liberty (a turning away from the Credit Money Corporate State – of “Stakeholder Capitalism” which is not capitalism at all) – or will there be a move towards global tyranny based on an international fiat (order-command-whim) currency.
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… MASS HYSTERIA!
What the hell’s that got to do with this article or video?
Hazer – it is has everything to do with it.
It is true that the West would, most likely, have suffered economic and societal collapse anyway (I do not deny that) – but by its actions it has made this certain, and brought it forward.
The present system will collapse in 2025. Indeed the process has already started.
However, none of this justifies what Mr Putin has done. Not only has he greatly harmed Ukraine – he has also led vast numbers of Russians to their deaths.
War is not like a re-enactment – at the end the dead do not stand up again, they stay dead.
I fear that it is the People’s Republic of China (already by far the largest manufacturing power in the world – more than twice the manufacturing output of the United States) will emerge the winner from all this – and, contrary to the delusions of Mr Putin, the People’s Republic of China is no friend of the Russian people.
Whether he knows it or not – Mr Putin has betrayed Russia, has betrayed the people. Even if he wins in Ukraine – the dead Russians (and dead Ukrainians) will not come alive again.
War is not a form of entertainment – at least not for sane people.
Hazer, Paul is powered by ChatGPT.
😬
Paul,
There is an argument that says Xi egged Putin on in Ukraine because he expected Putin to come off badly so that China could force a deal on Siberia. Plausible?
I sometimes think of a scenario where the Third Reich invades Poland on 1 September 1939 but by 20 December 1941 has had little real success.
The initial German attempt to employ a coup de main with paratroops against Warsaw was a frightful disaster. Although portions of the Polish western border regions have been taken, along with part of the Baltic coast, the Wehrmacht is now largely stalled, still slugging away at the Poles, who occasionally sink battleships and destroy industrial and military targets in eastern Germany.
This always helps me get some better sense of just how badly the Russians have performed against Ukraine in their cack-handed invasion.
It assumes that Xi knew more than Putin (or made a better guess).
In particular, it assumes that Xi knew that Zelenskyy would not accept Biden’s offer of a ride.
Hard to know.
Zelenskyy took pretty much everyone by complete surprise by proving to have balls of steel. Several Ukrainians I know (none of whom voted for him) now have great respect for him.
As i said before (perhaps not explicitly), i see Zelenskyy as the latest in a line of fighters against fearful odds, going back at least to Miltiades, Leonidas, Themistokles, Epaminondas, and Horatius Cochles.
I admire Bibi, too, but not for fighting against fearful odds: I admire him for fighting on in spite of adverse international propaganda.
Russia has always suffered from delusion, particularly when it comes to military matters.
Modern warfare is going lower and lower in scale; today’s infantry squad and platoon has to contend with issues that were the exclusive purview of battalion commanders and staffs back during the Second World War. They control equivalent firepower, as well, if they’re part of a modern army.
Russia is still operating as though it were fighting in WWI or early WWII. They’re not a learning organization, in any way, shape, or form: They don’t learn from their mistakes, and keep repeating them. The utter lack of real professionalism and low-level leadership is killing them by the thousands, but what do they do about that? Nothing. They keep throwing men and material at the Ukrainians in the same old way, hoping that they’ll somehow gain some success.
Frankly, if they were at all rational? They’d have had an immediate after-actions review around the 5th of March, 2022, and then immediately sued for peace and withdrawn from Ukraine, before wiping out the youth of an entire generation. The epic and incredibly unprofessional execution of the advance on Kyiv should have served as a wake-up call for the leadership, and they should have withdrawn to have a long think about the direction they’ve been going for the last thirty years, and considered that, just perhaps, they were on the wrong course. Instead, they’ve doubled-down on the stupid, and at the end of it all, I’m morally certain we’re going to see a collapse of the entire house of cards. The floods earlier this spring, and all the infrastructure failures that went on? Signals, my friends, signals. The urban areas around St. Petersburg and Moscow are not the leading indicators for the health of the Russian people or their state; those indicators are out in the hinterlands, where most live without access to modern health care, medicines, educational facilities, or even rudimentary indoor plumbing and heat. I’ve got a friend who was a US Bureau of Indian Affairs doctor; that’s how he paid for his education. The stuff that he saw in his travels across Russia while out in the countryside? His description was that most of the Russians he’d met would have found the conditions at the Pine Ridge or Rosebud Indian Reservations here in the US a marked improvement… Which is a mind-boggling thought. He was pretty sure that the alcohol problems at Pine Ridge were actually better than most of what he saw in Russia.
Interesting guy. You ask him what he thinks about the Soviets or modern Russia being considered a superpower? He’ll laugh hysterically at the notion, and I think he’s probably right. Russia is not a modern country in the terms that count.