This translated twitter thread purports to originally come from an FSB source, but I cannot say if this is legit or not. If true, it is dynamite.
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27 comments to Extremely interesting thread… |
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The military operation does not seem to have been well thought through – but then Mr Putin is not President Eisenhower, he does not have a background in logistics or in how military force can be used to achieve political objectives.
Mr Putin does not understand the economic side either – he walked (like a fool) into the “Great Reset” with now, for example, both Mastercard and Visa cutting off payment services from all Russians. This is NOT a new idea – at all those WEF events that Mr Putin went to, using the monetary and financial system for political objectives was often discussed (was Mr Putin asleep?). For example, Mr Putin should have understood that he would be cut off from Dollar transactions and that his “foreign exchange reserves” of fiat money, would become worthless over night (because, really, THEY ALWAYS WERE worthless). But he seems to have been caught by surprise by every obvious move against him.
I seem to know more about what the international Corporate State (“public-private partnership”) would do to Russians than Mr Putin did – and that is crazy, he had access to all the information we have (indeed far more – he has been to these conferences and so on), and yet EVERYTHING catches him by surprise.
Of course this is a good trial run – for an agenda that has nothing really to do with Russia or Mr Putin, but he should have seen it coming and he-did-not.
Perhaps Mr Putin is very ill – just no longer has a grip on reality.
Mr Putin was always an evil man – but now he acting as if was STUPID as well. Unless, as already said, he is very ill.
I keep coming back to the stubborn fact that Mr Putin had more than TWENTY YEARS to set up a gold currency and financial system – but he did not.
Mr Putin stuck with fiat money and the international institutions (Swift, the Credit Bubble banks, and all the rest of it) – that may be O.K. if you plan to only do what the international establishment want you to do.
But if you want to be “Peter the Great” or “Catherine the Great” taking over the Ukraine – then you have to have an independent monetary and financial system (AS THEY DID – hold one of their coins between your fingers, it has value RIGHT NOW).
Mr Putin does NOT have an independent monetary and financial system – Russia has lots of gold and he had over TWENTY YEARS to create an independent monetary and financial system, but Mr Putin DID NOT DO IT.
To invade Ukraine is bad enough – to invade Ukraine when you are still part of the international fiat money and Credit Bubble monetary and financial system, is totally insane.
Of course this system will also be used to crush domestic dissent in various countries.
The “war on cash” (and the undermining of what “cash” is – which happened long ago) is very much a war on Freedom of Speech and all other basic liberties.
As for Mr Putin – an evil man, who is now also clearly a FOOL.
Frederick the Great of Prussia did not have much gold of his own – or a strong economy either. Contrary to his apologists over the last few centuries – Prussia was a serf ridden dump. And is legal system, under Frederick, was not “scientific” and “efficient” – in reality his legal code was one of the WORST in Europe.
So how did Frederick pay for his War Machine? Partly by massive gold subsidies from London (yes the “Frederick the Great” that British thinkers taught “proved” that statism works, was actually dependent on British subsidies) – and partly by plundering and counterfeiting – all those fake “Polish” coins that were really debased coins produced by Frederick the Great (“great men” are often rather squalid criminals if one looks up close).
Frederick was also a real SOLDIER – he understood MILITARY matters.
It is clear now that Mr Putin does not.
By the way – Frederick was also lucky.
Had the Empress Elizabeth of Russia lived a few months longer – the Cossacks would have been in Berlin (and he admitted that).
I would like to believe this is true. I’d like to believe that Russian logistics are in a mess, that their SAS met a sticky end, that the Ukrainians are fighting like lions, that Russia’s economy is about to tank. But… it’s all stuff I want to hear and things that have been said quite a lot in the West. That’s how hoaxes from Titus Oates to Trump-Russia are sustained – because people want to believe them.
As regards the economy I am reminded of Norman Angell. In 1910, or thereabouts he wrote a book in which he claimed that major wars were impossible because no power would be able to sustain it beyond a few months. He was, of course, spectacularly wrong. He was, of course, subsequently rewarded with a Nobel Peace Prize.
Oh absolutely, which is why I am far from ready to say this is certainly legit. Only time will tell.
I think both of those have actual evidence to back them up (the poor logistics and that the ‘descent’ operation to take Hostomel airport was a fiasco), but yes, one does need to be sceptical about many of the claims we are hearing.
The discussion is interesting. The ability of the alleged FSB guy to find time to write it, although
may not be dispositive, but I’m unclear what its audience is meant to be and why a time-and-sleep-lacking analyst would write it. I can imagine answers to these questions – but also reasons why a more-distantly-sourced analysis would allege an FSB-insider provenance. I will be cautious about its source, but unsurprised if some of its statements prove to have content.
Just my 0.02p FWIW.
Sure Niall, I just stuck it up speculatively “as is”. It might turn out to be less than it seems but too interesting to just ignore.
Being “at work” does not always mean you are working. It cam mean you are showing up and staying long hours so the bosses can see you doing it. And with the right precautions, riding the Web looks like work.
But who knows these days? I don’t trust my city government, nor my state government, and I haven’t the least idea what the county government is up to. I do know – assuming I can trust the news – that some committee is discussing tearing up the Interstate 94 highway between Minneapolis and Saint Paul, and wants to turn it into a parkway. A major artery of commerce! Some kind of (adjective) Justice because forty or fifty years ago building the highway disrupted neighborhoods.
The world has gone mad.
The main characteristic of the Rondo neighborhood – which is the area that was wiped out – was that no one could get out of there fast enough. Hellhole. If it was still there today, they’d be screaming to tear it down. When the state looked for land to buy for 94, Rondo went cheap.
Now, they talk about the culture of the remaining area, but that culture was only made possible by 94 providing access.
It’s like we lost a war and no one told us.
Rings true, but as Patrick observed, that might be because I’d like it to be true. So thanks for putting it up and thanks for also warning it might not be legit.
On being overworked, it’s worth reminding ourselves that during the First World War, Haig and in the Second World War, Alanbrooke both had the time to keep diaries. Alanbrooke frequently complained to his diary how tired he was but then he spent most of his time battling Churchill. Haig only had the Germans to deal with.
People who like this thread may also like the thread of Carole Catlady……..
Some random superficial thoughts, assuming thread is true, color me skeptical:
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Amateurs rely on tactics, Pros rely on logistics. Up until a week ago, I would have guessed Putin was a Pro unless he is being deceived.
Don’t believe your own hype, don’t believe your own lies.
A parallel circumstance. After, we were, maybe 18 months into covid, in the course of an interview, Eric Weinstein, brother of Bret, expressed his utter dismay with the institutions, responsible for managing covid. Up until then, he had convinced himself that even debased institutions carry within them institutional knowledge and institutional memory, sufficient to function, even if they are managed by dopes. Case in point, I give you the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which as many have mentioned would have been managed better by Boy Scouts.
I have no point just wondering if someone is playing 3-D chess and it’s over my head.
There is an unconfirmed report – unable to link it, I’m afraid, that Putin is suffering from cancer and is therefore afraid of catching any form of infection, hence the long tables. If this is true, then he may be mad enough to feel that, if he is going to go, he may as well take the rest of the world with him. I think it may take a Game of Thrones style kingslayer to save the world.
Looking at the map…
Could the Kyiv attack axis just be a massive feint to claim the entirety of Southern Ukraine up to Odessa?
The Wobbly Guy (March 7, 2022 at 3:12 am), the obvious fall-back for Putin – if things are anywhere near as bad for him as the thread says (let us beware overconfidence) – is to pretend exactly what you suggest; to decide just to grab the Donbass and call it quits, and also pretend he always meant that, but fooled the Ukrainians into spreading their forces all over the place, whereas if he’d just said so the battle would have been in the Donbass, damaging it muchly.
That is another reason I am cautious about the thread being FSB-originated. It says that “Russia has no out”, but a nationalistic FSB officer would want to believe there was an out, and that refocus is one they would likely think of and discuss. If I can see the strategy of pivoting down to doing what Biden said would be OK, then I’m sure an FSB analyst can, and even if things are so bad the Ukraine could stall even that, a nationalistic Russian will not want to believe that unanalysed.
Penseivat (March 6, 2022 at 10:34 pm), Putin’s knowledge of how easy it is for a Russian to despair abruptly and shoot himself several times in the back, or turn a door knob and then perish of a puzzling ailment, is sufficient explanation for his personal caution.
Patrick – I did NOT say that massive war was impossible now.
I said the opposite – I said that Mr Putin had more than 20 years to create an independent monetary and financial system. But he DID NOT DO THAT.
Mr Putin left Russia enmeshed in the international monetary and financial system – and so Russian people are now being hit very hard indeed. You can (not can-not) have an independent policy (independent of the international establishment) – but you need to have an independent financial and monetary system, Mr Putin could have created one (he had the gold and he had the time) but he DID NOT DO IT.
As you know General Douglas Haig created several versions of his “dairy” – and his major concern was always office politics (his climb up the army ladder, all his life, was based on his skill as a wire puller – what used to be called “intrigue” – the very thing he claimed to despise) – the Germans were a secondary consideration.
As for Winston Churchill – some of his ideas were good, but he was trapped in a system where the people entrusted with carrying out the ideas did-not-believe-in-them.
His ancestor, John Churchill, was in a totally different situation – he could not just have ideas, he could CARRY THEM OUT.
For example Patrick – contrary to what you have been told, the Dardanelles was a very GOOD idea (difficult – but perfectly possible). See the works of the late Colonel Barker or Brigadier Mallinson on this subject.
The idea was sound and would have brought great (perhaps decisive) benefits for the Allied cause – but was handed over to commanders who did not understand landings, and did not grasp what everything was about.
“The System” was defeating people long before Lord Frost.
As for the 2nd World War – the very first thing the Ministry of Supply did after Winston Churchill was removed from office was to abolish his “Toy Shop” – the people who had created unconventional (and often highly successful) weapons and tactics.
“The System” (or what we call today “The Blob”) has got more and more power over time – and people such as Winston Churchill (elected politicians with their own ideas) have got less and less power.
Perhaps it started all the way back with Sir Charles Trevelyan – who totally messed up Ireland (NO he did mess the place up on purpose, but he did mess up on an horrific scale) – and then was REWARDED by being allowed to creat the British Civil Service.
In the United States, President Garfield was wrong about creating a professional bureaucracy (as wrong as he was in his desire for a Federal Education system) – and Senator Conkling was correct.
Personnel are policy – if you are not allowed to hire and fire the people who carry out policy, then (sooner or later) you will find that you (the elected politician) are NOT in control of policy.
Every politician (national or local) is very familiar with the words “it is policy” – these words meaning “the matter is settled – there is nothing you can do about it”.
But there was a time when elected people MADE policy and could CHANGE it.
Philosophically one can trace things back to people such as Jeremy Bentham and his followers (such as the Mills – and Sir Edwin Chadwick).
Elections would still happen – and Parliament would still meet. But policy would really be made by “educated” “expert” officials.
One can even see traces of these ideas in Thomas Cromwell in the 16th century – there are good reasons why the left revere the master of “Wolf Hall” to this day.
In the German lands one can see such ideas in philosophers such as Hegel – the worship of Prussian bureaucracy (officialdom). Educated, honest, and independent.
In China one can see this in the ideas of Confucius.
Indeed the great Chinese philosopher probably thought this out much better than later Western philosophers – for rule by officials (if it is not to be based on savage violence – as with the Chinese “Legalist” philosophers) depends on a whole way-of-life.
It depends on a whole way-of-life where officials know how to behave in every detail of their lives – including their thoughts.
And it depends on a whole way-of-life for everyone else – where everyone knows how to behave in every detail of their lives – including their thoughts.
So there is no need for savage violence (as with the Chinese “Legalist” philosophers) as the thought of not obeying does not even occur to anyone, everyone behaves (and thinks) in a certain way – due to their education and constantly repeating certain rituals.
Confucius thought all this out thousands of years before the “Woke” thinkers of today, and he did it much better.
Just listening to a Ukrainian representative at the “International Criminal Court” (unelected and no jury)
“Ukraine is an independent sovereign state”.
“Ukraine respects this court and carries out its orders”.
The second statement contradicts the first statement. And I write as someone who supports the Ukrainian side in this war with Mr Putin.
An “independent sovereign state” would totally reject such unelected bureaucratic bodies – especially international ones.
There is a thing going round (I hope it is FAKE – created by the FSB or some such) which has President Z. standing with Prime Minister Trudeau and saying “people like Prime Minister Trudeau inspired me to go into politics”.
As I say – I hope it is fake, but it is depressing.
Remember – inside the velvet glove of Confucius is still the IRON FIST, under all the nice sounding talk and endless rituals.
Mr Putin is like the Chinese “Legalist” philosophers of thousands of years ago – he is a vicious thug, but he is an OPEN vicious thug.
In the end the “soft” tyranny of Trudeau and co (the soft language and the endless rituals) is still tyranny.
Free people do NOT “respect” international bodies – and free people most certainly do NOT “obey” international bodies.
As well as friends pointing this out to me – it is also (for example) on the website of “Lifesite News” (conservative Catholic site).
Supposedly on the 2nd of July 2019 President Z. posted on Twitter that the Prime Minister Trudeau (fellow WEF type) was one of the people who “inspired me to go into politics”.
If (if) true – this does not alter the brutal fact that the invasion of Ukraine is a terrible crime by Mr Putin and must be opposed. But it would confirm me in my belief that voting for Z in 2019 was a serious blunder.
The people can be mislead into making mistakes – especially if what most people see and hear, is controlled.
Still, let us hope that this is an FSB disinformation campaign.
This could be possible. One thing to keep in mind is that Canada has a large Ukrainian population. Trudeau’s deputy PM is partially Ukrainian Catholic descent as well. So Zelensky could have been saying that to drum up support for Ukraine in Canada and would say nice things about whoever the Canadian PM is.
It could be a coincidence that this thread is purportedly coming from FSB, and at the same time the Ukrainians are crediting a source in the FSB for info. that allowed them to foil 3 attempts on Zelensky’s life.
OTOH it could be that the mole is actually in the SVR, DRU, or some other Russian intelligence service, and attributing it to FSB is misdirection.
Or it could be that attributing it to FSB seemed the best way to direct attention to SVR and DRU, instead of FSB.
As Sun Tzu says: all warfare is based on deception.
And if you ask me how i know all those acronyms: I read the Red Sparrow trilogy, and refreshed my memory with Wikipedia.
Mr Marks: If, as you say, the US and EU have closed the banking clearing system to Russia, how will they (the US and EU ) pay for oil, gas, coal, metals, grain imports from Russia? With bullion? Have adequate arrangements been made?
The West is dependent, to a great degree, on Russian imports.
The banking clearing system is fine, thanks for asking.
The claims about closing it are theater of the absurd. Nonsense.
That Russia might be hard hit, economically and otherwise by this crazy invasion is quite obvious.
Still, Ukraine is getting flattened right now. Syria stile. All cities – piles of rubble, all infrastructure out…
Jacob – the imports are being ending, it is claimed for political reasons. But “how can we pay for imports if we exclude Russia from the financial system” may, possibly, have a bit to do with this. Of course I know the suffering this will cause in the West.
Can a peace deal be done with Mr Putin as you suppose – no Jacob I do not believe it can (remember neither side, not Mr Putin or the people behind Mr Biden and K. Harris, wants a peace deal).
Do I know that people such a K. Harris helped push Mr Putin into war (by going to Europe and saying that the United States wanted the Ukraine in NATO) – of course I do, even though Mr Putin is an evil man (yes it really is that simple sometimes) and wanted to crush the Ukraine anyway.
Mr Putin wanted war – and the people behind the Biden/Harris Administration also wanted war (yes I know that – I am bitter old man, NOT yet a senile old man).
None of them could give a Tinker’s curse about the suffering people of Ukraine – not Mr Putin, and not the people behind Mr Biden and K. Harris.
Mr Putin wanted to prop up his dictatorship (which is utterly vicious) and the Western “liberals” wanted an excuse for the inevitable collapse of their Credit Bubble economy.
“Our policies would have worked – it is the fault of Mr Putin that you are unemployed and starving”.
I hate Mr Putin – and I hate the Collectivist “liberal” establishment as well.
“What is like to hate everyone Paul” – I do not hate everyone, just a small group of people.
And hate is just about the only heat I can afford.
If this is true then it does show an interesting and repeat problem with having a dictator in power. As the thread mentions, everyone is too scared to come up with negative consequences and therefore just comes up with what the dictator wants to hear. Which means inaccurate and wildly optimistic analysis that has no basis in reality that leads to bad decisions.
And finally, even if none of this is true, it still makes good points. This is one that gives uite a lot of insight IMO: ““Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated. “
tim c
Yes – they (the international elite – such as the people behind Mr Biden and K. Harris) played (the vicious-evil – but now also STUPID) Mr Putin like a fiddle, he has done exactly what they wanted them to do. Mr Putin has a launched a blood soaked invasion of the Ukraine – just as they wanted him to (they can now blame all the failures of their economic policies on “Putin” and anyone who questions that will be declared a “friend of Putin” and CANCELLED).
And because Mr Putin is such a vicious man – none of his civilian or military advisers could find the courage to say “Boss – you are walking into a trap, they WANT you to attack Ukraine”.
Meanwhile in “totally unrelated news” – it turns out that the “infrastructure” (and other) Federal government spending is tied to setting up Agenda 2030 (World Economic Forum and United Nations) “partnership” bodies – partnerships between local, State and Federal Government and Big Business (crossing county lines and crossing State lines) which can, for example, take privately owned land. “But my family has owned this land for five generations” – shut up you RACIST (oh yes any opposition will be branded “racist” and “white supremacist” – the government officials and Corporate executives are well trained in this language and will use it to justify their STEALING).
Of course the “racist” private property owners will be “paid” for their land – they will be paid in worthless paper Dollars (indeed why bother with paper – computer entries will do). “You are “paid” – you stupid serf”.
The economic decline will also help this process along – as people will not be able to afford their Property Taxes, so people will lose their property (without even the need for the extended “Eminent Domain” power that these “public private partnerships”, hello BLACK ROCK and others, will have).
Sadly “you will own nothing” is not “Tin Foil Hat” stuff – it is the program of government, the banks and the big “Woke” corporations (including Dr Schwab – with that little bust of Lenin on his shelf, oh yes it is there).
Saint-Simon’s dream from two hundred years ago – socialism with Big Business (especially the Credit Bubble financial entities) in charge – in the name of “science”.
But most people do not notice what is happening – as the news is all “Ukraine – Putin, Putin – Ukraine”.
“Look at the horrific war people – concentrate on the horrific war, do not think about anything else we are doing…..”
The population of Ukraine (tens of millions of human beings) are being USED – trapped between the utterly vicious and evil Mr Putin (and he is vicious and evil), and an international elite (Davos and co) who pretend to care that people are being shot and blown up in the Ukraine – whilst privately being delighted that this is happening, or if not “delighted” then saying to themselves “it is a necessary sacrifice for the greater good of Progressive world governance”.
“You can not make an omelette without breaking eggs” – and the “eggs” turn out to be men, women and children.
I beg to differ, Paul. I believe their opinion of how the invasion of Ukraine would go resembled Putin’s – a swift walkover that would therefore not cause huge economic disruption but would make Biden look weak, highlight how their energy policy had put them in hock to Putin, and so on. To their surprise and Putin’s, the Ukraine is still fighting and they’re having to pivot the narrative to deal with the unexpected situation, and western political reaction. Of course, they’re trying to milk the new situation as they once milked money sent to Ukraine. However I have far too low an opinion of their judgement to think they saw this coming and planned for it. They are responding to events (with their usual lies) post hoc.
I think that when Biden invited Putin to take just a piece of Ukraine he was (insofar as he ever is) sincere(ly stupid). I think he did not like the idea of being blamed for losing another country, and thought loss of the Donbass would be easier to spin, and to ‘move on’ from.
They foresaw of course, that they’d have to explain why it didn’t happen under Trump, and had their lines prepared for that, but everything else has been a surprise to them.
Marked rises in fuel prices when they are trying to push net zero now have a villain to be blamed on – but they might have wanted less marked rises in fuel prices. Inflating food prices now have a villain likewise – but they might have wanted less inflation. Excuses – particularly bad and/or only partial ones – are not necessarily more useful than not having so much to excuse.