An excellent summary of an serious issue we are facing by commenter phwest:
Polio and smallpox are not the right comparison to Covid. Those are DNA viruses that are largely stable. The proper comparison to COVID is influenza, a similar RNA virus, which has had a vaccine (of sorts) out for decades of limited effectiveness that requires constant annual fiddling to have any impact at all. There are real medical arguments against the COVID vaccines, the most important of which runs as follows :
Vaccinations prime the body to respond to a highly mutating virus with a specific antibody response. Eventually the virus will mutate to a form that is close enough to the original that it provokes the vaccination response, but different enough that those antibodies will not be effective. Google “Original Antigenic Sin” for more details. Changing the vaccine won’t help, because it too will be close enough to the original to provoke the production of antibodies to the original vaccine, not the updated one.
Now this isn’t any different that natural immunity, which has the same issues. This can be seen with influenza. However natural immunity is generational in the population – that is, each generation acquires immunity to the strains of influenza that were prevalent in their youth, so that as influenza cycles through the various mutations that are available a certain portion of the population has acquired immunity to that strain. This provides a degree of herd immunity that limits the spread.
This is where the risks of a universal COVID vaccine become clear. We are immunizing the entire population against a single strain of COVID. Once the virus mutates its way past the vaccine, and it will, there will be no significant portion of the population that can even acquire natural immunity to the new strains, and new vaccines won’t work for the previously vaccinated. This in particular is why vaccinating children is such a disaster. Not only don’t they need it (children appear to clear the virus through a totally different immune response system in the body, and don’t generate antibodies at all), but now they have a primed immune response and it’s the wrong one.
This is essentially the argument against flu vaccines as well (the effectiveness seen in studies is not actually the effect of the vaccine at all, just the previously acquired immunity to the flu strain in question, which the studies do not control for). And the nastiest possibility is that the flu vaccines themselves are close enough to COVID that they are behind the sharp age response in serious outcomes, as these are the populations with the highest degree of vaccination for influenza (this would be an interesting study that will NEVER be funded for obvious reasons).
Now this is not my field by any stretch, so I am simply summarizing a number of presentations I’ve seen by several immunologists. This exposition makes sense to me, but I am not pretending that I am qualified to actually judge its veracity. It is obviously not a universally held position in that field (at least I hope not). But the public health drive for universal COVID vaccination has significant opposition in the medical community, including some prominent resignations in the US advisory committees over the decision to extend the vaccine to children.
Great summary, much as it was explained to me by a medical doctor.
Not my field either, but I don’t think the vaccines are the only thing to worry about in that respect. Right now the situation appears to be that you either get immunity through catching the virus or through a vaccine (or both). Because omicron is so prevalent, that means that even natural immunity is very specific to the current strains. This is unlike ‘flu, where yes, each generation gets its immunity to different strains, which protects them to some extent from future strains.
There are certainly good arguments against vaccinating kids, but given that the alternative right now is for them to all get omicron antibodies — which match the antibodies of older generations anyway — I don’t think this is one of them. As phwest says, natural immunity is generational in the population for ‘flu. But with everyone getting the same strain at the same time, the same is not true of covid — “[o]nce the virus mutates its way past the vaccine, and it will, there will be no significant portion of the population that can even acquire natural immunity to the new strains, and new vaccines won’t work for the previously vaccinated” is true as far as it goes, but needs “or infected” at the end.
No, I have read quite a few remarks by people ‘in the business’ that immunity from the earlier strains is indeed proving (far) more effective against the latest strains than the ‘vaccines’.
The comment seems to suggest that vaccination against the current strain will eliminate the possibility of future vaccinations for future strains?
That does not sound right at all.
“Thus, OAS responses can offer protective benefits during secondary exposures to drifted viruses as well.”
https://www.jimmunol.org/content/202/2/335
The difference is that influenza mostly cycles through known previously evolved variants while Covid is still evolving new ones. Eventually the evolution of Covid will slow and it will become more influenza-like. At that point our vaccines may become more effective (although never as effective as vaccines for diseases like measles).
One problem with the Covid vaccine is that it was made only to a single protein which practically insured that original antigenemic sin would quickly become an issue. Another problem is that it started off leaky (only 85-95%) practically ensuring that the virus would quickly evolve around it. (I cringed when I first heard people describing 95% as good)
There are other potential issues with vaccines. The immune system can become ‘tired’, vaccine-dependent antigen enhancement, Marek effect etc. Vaccines are useful tools but still only one tool out of many. There are many ways a mass vaccination campaign can go wrong.
I assume you are referring to influenza, Covid and most other viruses. Do you know of any case where natural immunity is not as effective as a vaccine because I can’t think of one?
I heard that the proportion of people who have not had the Covid virus was 60%. Have these people not been exposed to it even though it has been endemic for nearly two years? Or have they somehow acquired immunity without actually becoming ill?
Stonyground, my partner was exposed when I got it, she never did. Probably T-cell immunity.
Indeed. That is why vaxxing people with natural antibodies is madness.
@Stonyground,
For how infectious the virus is/was, look at the Diamond Princess cruise ship:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)#Coronavirus_disease_2019
Of the 3,711 people on board (passengers and crew), “at least” 712 tested positive for the virus for an infection rate of 19%. 14 people died (2% of those infected) and ALL of them passengers for an overall death rate in the population of 0.38%. Not exactly the Black death level of mortality.
Note that the passengers would very likely have been elderly as few working people can afford the time or cash to take extended cruises.
Now, remember that this was in January/February 2020 at he very beginning of the “pandemic” when no medical treatment for the virus was decided upon and the crew and passengers would have mingled freely.
The evidence of how deadly the virus was was there from the beginning but no one sat down and thought about it but instead did a Chicken Little and claimed that the sky was falling.
The US FDA has ruled that (monoclonal) antibodies against alpha are not effective against omicron.
In other words, the mRNA vaccines are not effective against omicron.
So, why bother?
The intellectual modesty expressed in the last paragraph makes this the most (if not the only) sensible post on covid that i have read on Samizdata.
Leaving aside the question of whether the injections are “vaccinations” (there are arguments that the definition has been changed – that these injections would not be considered vaccinations under the old definition of the term), there is another problem here.
The post does not mention Early Treatment of Covid 19 – the entire post implies there are only two choices. Inject people or do nothing.
After almost two years of experienced medical doctors explaining that there are Early Treatment options – a post that implies it is a choice between the injections and doing nothing at all, is not good.
The post does not even say to keep up your Vitamin D levels to reduce the risk of becoming ill in the first place.
The injectors at least have a course of action – it may well be a bad plan (as the post argues – and argues well), but it is a course of action.
I know the Taoists argued that doing nothing is sometimes the correct thing to do – but a course of action is hard to defeat without an alternative course of action. Early Treatment of the disease is that alternative course of action.
Whether people go down the hydroxychloroquine, zinc and azithromycin road, or (alternatively) the ivermectin road, is another debate. But for some (SOME) people just sitting around getting worse is the road to death.
Perhaps books such as “Overcoming The Covid Darkness” (by Doctor Brian Tyson and Doctor George Fareed) are totally WRONG – there may be no treatment for Covid 19. But I have yet to see a proper refutation – as opposed to establishment agitprop.
Because its never been about health.
@Phil B,
A few people noticed. In mid March 2020, Willis Eschenbach at the website Watts Up With That called the Diamond Princess: a perfect Petri-dish coronavirus disease experiment. I have bored friends and family with the story ever since.
Yes, several virologists have indeed floated that nightmare scenario.
The evidence overwhelmingly indicates that natural immunity obtained by contracting COVID-19 is more effective, longer lasting, and more broadly based than the meager degree of immunity obtained via the vaccine (which lasts only 4 – 6 months, is not very effective and is very narrow, which means only the vaccine only works (and barely works) for certain very specific strains, unlike natural immunity which is quite robust and BROAD).
Given the extraordinary small positive effects of the vaccine, and given the extraordinarily risky possibilities involved in universal vaccination, and given that in history governments and bureaucrats don’t give two shits about the people, I find it very difficult to refrain from ascribing ulterior motives to efforts to achieve universal vaccination.
The post also said nothing about cross channel immigration or SpaceX or Ukraine.
No, Paul, he is discussing the problem with these ‘vaccinations’, it implies nothing of the sort. I realise you think every comment should be about early treatment, but he is discussing vaccinations 😉
Thanks Perry
Indeed.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-panel-military-service-members-see-spikes-miscarriages-cancer
@Stonyground and Perry, T-Cell immunity was never considered in Fraudy Pants Ferguson’s modelling. This was picked up by critics but they were smeared, ignored et al. Likewise, I’ve been exposed as have several of my colleagues. We haven’t picked it up. Since the vaccine roll-out, I am the only one of us not vaccinated and I still haven’t got it despite being exposed to it just prior to Christmas, so, yeah, T-cell immunity might be an explanation.
Any vaccine that cannot protect the vaccinated from catching the disease the vaccine is for, is useless. It really is that simple. It is the obvious argument to leaving the unvaccinated alone. Do not fire them for making a choice that you, Government, don’t like. Your vaccine was useless as a vaccine. Because it wasn’t a vaccine. No-one has ever nor will ever produce a true vaccine for a Corona virus. It is far too genetically unstable. That is why there is still a common cold. Covid-19 will in due course evolve into another Corona cold virus. All these lockdowns and restrictions were not necessary. But they have stimulated research into anti viral therapies which is a very good thing.
Shlomo, your comment is interesting. The increase in many medical conditions obviously was pointed to adverse jab reactions, but as someone pointed out this could be in part due to other factors such as being unable to access medical care for whatever reason. However, presumably that would not apply to the military and as you say they keep very good records.
Nemesis,
Correlation does not mean causation.
But correlation also does not preclude causation.
We have every indication possible (from VAERS to this new military data to a zillion other things) that these vaccines are simply not safe. At all.
Oh, also, the vaccines don’t work anyway LOL.
Nemesis have you signed up for your booster injection #5 yet?
Perry – the alternative to the “vaccination” (for want of a better word) route was-and-is the Early Treatment route. That is why the bureaucracy (both in the United States and internationally) had to claim that there was no Early Treatment – otherwise they could not get the “lockdowns” and the “emergency authorisation for vaccines” that they wanted.
“The post does not need to mention Early Treatment” – not if you are happy to accept vaccination of everyone, then it does not have to mention Early Treatment.
The vaccination campaign is not stopping in many countries – including of children and of people who have already had Covid. The alternative road is Early Treatment. Although YES Taoist philosophy might teach to just “do nothing” – that is not an option politically.
“Are you saying that governments will carry on with the injections (basically forcing people to have them) even if the injections kill more than they save?” OF COURSE they will – unless given an alternative course of action. And Early Treatment is that alternative option.
Paul, it is bizarre to criticise a comment making specific points on the grounds it was did not discuss something else entirely. It does not invalidate your drum beat about the importance of early treatment, but frankly it is not up to you to decide what other point someone else wants to focus on.
We all know you have no concept of brevity, but the comment (now article) was already quite lengthy making the points the author wanted to focus on.
@ Shlomo
“Nemesis have you signed up for your booster injection #5 yet?”
Lol, not had the 1st one yet, nor ever worn a mask or downloaded any silly app.
I said from the very start that I didnt think that the vax would be the panacea everyone expected.
I’m basically agreeing with you in my clumsy way but trying not to be absolutist.
No Perry it is not bizarre.
In politics, as in much of life, it is pointless to criticise a course of action – if you do not suggest an alternative course of action.
The post does not suggest an alternative course of action to the mass (semi enforced) injections – so they will continue, regardless of the harm they may do.
Yes treatments are safe and effective. But even if we didn’t have safe, effective, readily available and cheap treatments for COVID-19, it still would not be a good idea for most people to get the COVID-19 jab.
Anyway, to your point, Paul, the alternative to getting the COVID-19 vaccine is not getting the COVID-19 vaccine.
The post is discussing the jabs. You can (and do) constantly offer up early treatment as an alternative. And that is fine. What is bizarre is expecting someone else to do what you are doing when they want to discuss something else.
As an engineer, it had always seemed like a bad idea to me to not have redundant systems. What is posted above makes it pretty clear my instincts were correct. This has all been one, big lab experiment performed on almost the entire population of the planet. It should be obvious why that is a bad idea. Should the vaccine prove to cause cancer or other problems years down the road, or should it prime a useless immune response then we have made ourselves identically vulnerable where before there would have been much variation.
It will be only random chance as to whether a virus arises which can exploit this vulnerability we have created in an entire species. This alone is sufficient to let the anti-vax group win the debate while those who wish to vaccinate may do so to their heart’s content (or carditis).
OAS is a very interesting concept I hadn’t come across before. I went and read this: https://www.jimmunol.org/content/202/2/335
So different age cohorts are going to have different responses to different variants. But I’m not convinced vaccinating the whole planet is going to make much difference to this effect given that we are probably all going to be exposed to similar variants anyway during 2020-2022.
If it works like the Spanish flu in my linked article, we’ll all be immune to some similar coronavirus in 50 years but possibly especially vulnerable to one 25 years from now.