We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
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Way back when, I pointed out that DEBKA were making some highly questionable contentions about thousands of Al Qaeda soldiers being airlifted out of Konduz before it fell to the Northern Alliance forces of Generals Daoud Khan and Rashid Dostam. World Net Daily has belatedly picked up on this DEBKA theory.
First of all let me lay my cards on the table and say I think DEBKA are by and large a waste of pixels. Almost nothing they say cannot be deduced from open source data that is also available to anyone with a search engine and a working computer. Their analysis ranges from ‘okay’ to ‘wild conjecture’. What is more, to put it bluntly I am not sure I really trust them or their alleged ‘military sources’ given the quantity of dubious calls they have made in the past.
Military sources have solved the mystery: The planes belonged to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida. Under cover of the Pakistani airlift, 3,000 of the group’s fighters were secretly lifted to safety from the besieged towns of Konduz and Khandabad about 15 miles to the south. The double airlift lasted five nights. The planes arriving to ferry Pakistani fighters home were closely shadowed by a phantom airlift extracting al-Qaida personnel.
The rescued Pakistanis were flown to air bases in northwest and central Pakistan. The al-Qaida men were taken long distance to the Persian Gulf emirates, landing, according to Gulf sources, in Abu Dhabi and the Somali town of Baidoa.
My objections to this whole weird scenario remain unchanged from when I first suggested my interpretation of what probably happened in Konduz, which I posted to the Samizdata on November 27th. This section is relevant and nothing I have read has changed my mind since I wrote it
Likewise I think we can assume no pilot is crazy enough to try to land a large multi-engined jet on an unlit cratered dirt strip at night, so we can safely eliminate any of the large multi-engined Antonov jets.
My guess is that the aircraft in question will turn out to be an Antonov An-26. The Pakistani Airforce operates a single An-26 and it would be perfect for a rough strip landing under less than optimal conditions. My money is on that particular one being the specific aircraft involved in ‘The Great Escape’.
DEBKA does not explain where the ‘Al Qaeda’ air assets came from, how they avoided detection by the USAF/USN and how they managed this feat of night time airmanship with the larger Antonov’s than an AN-26 that would be required to get those sort of numbers out of the Konduz pocket. In two other articles on November 28 th, I discussed DEBKA’s view that it was the Pakistani ISI behind it (and I agreed) but pointed out their numbers did not really add up.
In the very next Samizdata article after that, I pondered the views of Tunku Varadarajan of the WSJ, who was saying much the same, only on the basis of sources probably far more reliable than DEBKA’s. Like Tunku Varadarajan, I felt (and still do) that it is hard to believe that the airlift of Pakistanis trapped there was not done with American acquiescence…and therefore indirect observation by sensor (not to mention nearby US and UK Special Forces). Thus it becomes even more fantastical to think a veritable airfleet was going in and out of Konduz unnoticed and unhindered, when all the US was acquiescing to was a limited airlift out of ‘sensitive’ ISI people. I think we can assume AWACS and JSTARS crews are fairly numerate folks. Unless we see some evidence other than DEBKA’s alleged ‘military sources’, I would recommend treating their story of 3000 Al Qaeda folks winging their way to freedom with considerable skepticism, to put it mildly.
There is an interesting piece on the Afgha website about US and British Special Forces moving around Kandahar openly and the curious rather than hostile reaction of the local Pashtun population.
Over on Matthew Edgar’s blog, you can hear the sound of grinding teeth every time mustachioed Rivera prances across the screens at Fox.
As an aside, I was watching the news with my extraordinarily bright grandmother the other day. She was surfing through the cable channels and came to Fox News. As Rivera is completely unknown in Britain, she was unaware he is a fairly well know, even if not widely respected, ‘investigative reporter’ across the puddle. She watched him declaiming about the situation in Kandahar for a few minutes and then turned to me:
“I think this is an American version of one of those news parody shows like ‘Not the Nine O’Clock News’… can you get me a real news channel?”
…whereupon she handed me the remote control.
She was rather perplexed when I started rolling on the floor laughing uncontrollably.
In my earlier article, as I think Natalija noticed, I spoke primarily of what I think are realistic options on what will happen. My own views are of course imbedded in what I write, but perhaps a clearer statement is in order.
If Mr. Walker is a member of al Qaeda, then there are no options. He should be tried for Treason.
If he is not an al Qaeda member he should be given the option to stay in Afghanistan. He would be handed over to the Northern Alliance with the other foreign Taliban soldiers.
If he wishes to retain his American citizenship and to ever return there, he must take his chances with a Treason trial. If ten years from now he finds he really wants to return, the answer is the same.
There are some rules you must keep to if you chose to be a member of a society. It is one thing to wish to change the society you exist within; it is quite another to work to bring about the deaths of fellow citizens while simultaneously partaking of its’ liberties.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
It’s a hard call without really knowing what Mr. Walker was up to and why. There is little doubt in my mind that he should be tried for Treason; whether or not he is convicted, whether or not there were extenuating circumstances is a matter for the courts to decide. The fact that he was found where he was found is rather damning evidence but is not “beyond the shadow of a reasonable doubt”.
What should be done with him if he is found guilty? That again is a matter for the courts. We don’t know what he actually did so how can we decide his fate from in front of our comfortable computer screens? For all we know he could have been dragged along by events and lain cowering in the basement wondering at his own idiocy. Or perhaps he went to fight with the Taliban against the Northern Alliance never imagining he could end up fighting his own country. After all, on September 10th how many of us would have considered US forces in Afghanistan as even the remotest possibility? If that were the case he is a soldier of fortune who got caught up in the wrong war at the wrong time. A few years in prison and a slap on the wrist would suffice.
Of course as Glenn Reynolds has suggested a number of times, we could take it as given he has chosen to give up his US Citizenship. We could leave him to the tender mercies of his chosen enemies, the Northern Alliance. An article about his interrogation in Ananova seems to indicate the CIA men were thinking along these lines just before “the balloon went up”:
On the tape, Walker is seen being brought to the two CIA men for interrogation. Spann is then seen saying to his colleague: “I explained to him what the deal is” and then tells Walker: “It’s up to you.” Dave then says: “The problem is, he’s got to decide if he wants to live or die. If he wants to die, he’s going to die here. “Or he’s going to f****** spend the rest of his short f****** life in prison. It’s his decision, man. We can only help the guys who want to talk to us. We can only get the Red Cross to help so many guys.
If he was there specifically to fight against America, there are no options. He should be put away for a very long time. And if he was actively assisting the al Qaeda… well that is another kettle of sharks entirely. He would, and should, face the death penalty.
Fortunately we have the right President for it.
Over on Fevered Rants, bloggista Alex del Castillo has dug up some interesting legal references pertaining to the John Walker affair in Afghanistan. He has some good links on the subject.
The owing allegiance phrase could likely be debated as to what it means exactly, but I think intent is clear. What would be the purpose of a law against treason if the act of treason automatically renounced one’s citizenship and conceivably made one merely an enemy of the state rather than a treasonous citizen? Actually, I think citizenship at the time of trial is a red herring, it is the act that counts.
However the issue of citizenship at the time of Walker’s alleged treason is rather more important legally I assume as the actions cannot be ‘treason’ if he had renounced any allegiance to the US earlier. I am no lawyer but if that is the case, why is be being held by the USA at all? Why not just leave him in the tender cares of General Rashid Dostam‘s Uzbeks?
I must confess I have always declined to accept the idea of the state-centric notion of ‘citizenship’. I see nothing wrong with loyalty to a society with which one has affinity but I for one feel no such thing for any state, which is quite another matter. My outrage over September 11 was not because the United States was attacked, but because fellow members of an extended civil society of which I am a member were murdered without cause by some sociopathic collectivist Islamic terrorists. Nationality per se is really not the issue.
By my way of seeing things, Walker chose to join the Taliban and thus should be of no more consequence than any other captured Taliban soldier. It should be remembered that the US/UK are at war in Afghanistan to destroy Al Qaeda and attacking the Taliban was only done because that proved to be a pre-requisite for achieving that objective. If Walker were a member of Al Qaeda, well, that would be different. He would be part of the organization responsible for September 11 and should be treated accordingly…but that does not seem to be the case.
As a defeated Taliban member, however, he should have just been left to get on with his new ‘friends’ in what is left of Kandahar, if Dostam’s people were inclined to let him go. If they were not, and he died in some fly infested prison cell in Mazar-i-Sharif, I do not see how it would be the concern of anyone in the USA. I would hardly describe that as being let off lightly! Alex del Castillo sums up with a similar view, but more because he views it as what he deserves. I take the view that it is the correct thing to do, which is a somewhat different sentiment even if the result may be the same.
It has been widely reported that no sooner does the multi-party conference in Germany select pashtun leader Hamid Karzai as the interim Prime Minister of Afghanistan than a stray 2000lb JDAM bomb from a USAF B-52 comes within a hair’s breadth of killing him. I suspect the only reason the conspiracy theorists are not already in full voice on this one is that three US soldiers were killed in the same incident.
But give them time… once it has rattled around in their heads for a few days, the dark theories will start to emerge. You think I am wrong? Well if an armed prison revolt in Mazar-i-Sharif can be reported in some quarters as a ‘massacre involving US forces’ in spite of the fact a German TV crew caught on video a captured prisoner blowing himself with a hidden grenade (and injuring attractive British ITN reporter Andrea Catherwood) and SkyNew filmed outgoing rifle, machinegun and mortar fire (having a camera man injured in the process), then methinks you underestimate the strangeness of the conspiratorial mindset. When wild and woolly theories about Hamid Karzai’s close call start to appear, I call on all Samizdata readers to e-mail them in to us.
Emmanuel Goldstein and I have crossed swords over this one on the Libertarian Alliance forum. That said, I do not regard Emmanuel as a complete looney tune conspiracy theorist (in spite of some intemperate remarks I may have made in the past), merely someone with a few looney tune theories and his Airstrip One blog is not without it’s perverse charms.
Although I am someone who finds 90% of all conspiracy theories not just bogus but ludicrous, they do have a certain entertainment value. I have my own pet theories regarding the conspiracy fetishists (as I prefer to call them). One of my more sublime discoveries after reading many of them is that they almost all, if you regress them far enough, will be traced back to the Knights Templar.
As Fox Mulder of the X-Files would say, “The truth is out there”… but so is the paranoid bullshit. And so for your edification, gentle reader, I present my semi-serious conspiracy meta-theory:
The vast majority of conspiracy theories tell us nothing about the subject matter of the conspiracy but quite a lot about the mind of the theorists themselves. However the endless procession of conspiracy theories are in fact perpetuated by institutions with real conspiracies to hide on the basis that when a true conspiracy theory actually hits the mark, it will then be dismissed out of hand as the paranoid ravings of a fantasist.
Are you impressed? You should be: that is an anti-conspiracy theory conspiracy theory!
Of course as I fit the profile of a sinister globalist illuminatus myself, you can safely assume I am just saying these things to conceal The Truth.
Christopher Hitchens is in typically ebullient form on The Nation as he writes The Ends of War, in which he makes a remark that I suspect is destined to became a classic quote:
The United States of America has just succeeded in bombing a country back out of the Stone Age.
Outstanding. Just for good measure, he yet again carves up Noam Chomsky in his Parthian shot. In a battle of wits, nauseating Noam is unarmed. This whole article is well worth a read.
I am only just starting to get used to the idea of not reflexively thinking of Christopher Hitchens as the enemy.
There is an interesting article by Matthew Edgar on Politics.com called The Solution to Post-Taliban Afghanistan: No Government. Whilst I do not actually agree with all its contentions, the central thrust of the article is insightful and realistic. It is a very different approach from the ‘received wisdom’ that various pundits and government talking head have been declaiming as the preferred ‘solution’ to Afghanistan’s woes (mumble, mumble, broad-based government, mumble, mumble, democracy…).
The Daily Telegraph is carrying interesting articles on the expanding role of the SAS in Afghanistan.
ALLIED commanders want the Special Air Service to provide one of the lead assault teams for the attack on Tora Bora, the mountain cave complex where Osama bin Laden is expected to make his final stand. Gen Tommy Franks, the operational commander of US forces involved in the Afghan campaign, made the decision after a series of spectacularly successful operations conducted by British special forces in the past fortnight.
I cannot help wondering if the Brits have not just won the booby prize. Hunting terrorists in a cave complex? That is certainly not my idea of jolly japes.
It is also reported that the Brits will be reinforced by their comrades in the Australian SAS and the New Zealand SAS. Given the somewhat different operational philosophies of the British/Commonwealth SAS and the US SpecOps groups, there is considerable scope for valuable synergies. The sheer range of experience, specialist skills, equipment and capabilities that these groups collectively represent is tremendous. As a result, the range of tactical options available must present Taliban/Al Qaeda with an appalling defensive dilemma on every level.
A lot of utter tosh has been written by the small but loud and malodorous nitwit faction within British BigMedia(tm) (such as the cretinous Daily Mail), who seem to be suggesting the SAS would win the war single handed. To that end “sources said” the Brits were making sure they did not end up having to work the inept US special forces and thus were operating in completely separate operational areas from the Yanks. Completely ludicrous of course. During the messy prison revolt in Mazar-i-Sharif, who should be filmed operating together, as in literally next to each other, M4 rifles in hand, by the excellent SkyNews team? British SAS and American Delta commandos naturally. And people wonder why I say the Daily Mail is best employed in cat litter trays.
There is also an article about the ‘new’ British L115A .338 calibre sniper rifle being used by the SAS in Afghanistan. They are quite correct that it is a superb weapon: the combination of rugged Arctic optimised construction, outstanding ballistics and sub-MOA accuracy makes it ideal for poaching Al Qaeda members… but with all due respect to the Daily Telegraph, the ‘new’ L115A is just a re-barreled L96A1. It has been on the civilian market in the fearsome .338 Lapua for several years.
It seems that British Special Air Service (SAS) commandos came very close to nailing the biggest hunting trophy in recent history! There is a fascinating article in The Advertiser about how Osama bin Laden came extremely close to getting caught and (probably) killed.
The conflict featured the largest deployment of SAS troops in one battle since the war in Oman in the mid-1970s, the paper said.
“We were within a whisker of getting him. It was a hard battle and will have put the fear of God into his people,” a source close to the regiment was quoted as saying.
“When prisoners were questioned it came out we had just missed him by about two hours,” the source added. Intelligence sources, also contacted by the paper, believed bin Laden fled as the battle began.
“The enemy were facing highly-trained and disciplined troops who, although outnumbered, had the tenacity, professionalism and firepower to terrorise them.
“Bin Laden knows the SAS are not far behind,” one said.
It was during this action that the four British casualties that were recently reported received their injuries. Other accounts have said that the SAS, which usually operates in four man teams, had deployed two entire sabres (the idiosyncratic SAS equivalent of a platoon, or aprox. 60 men per sabre) for the operation.
Let us hope it is only a matter of time before the SAS or their American Delta comrades personally deliver the civilised world’s definitive response for September 11 directly to its author.
Godspeed and good hunting gentlemen.
Instapundit is reporting an interesting Gulf News article about the disillusionment with the fundamentalists in Pakistan
A groundswell of resentment has emerged in Pakistani tribal territories against a fundamentalist leader who took thousands to Afghanistan to fight for the Taliban and left them stranded, residents said yesterday.
Soofi Mohammad, head of Tehrik Nifaz Shariah Mohammadi (TNSM), was arrested and jailed when he returned from Afghanistan after the rout of the Taliban militia, leaving his men behind. Scores of the tribesmen were reportedly killed inside Afghanistan and more than 2,000 were still missing.
Now far be it for me to say ‘I told you so’ but back on November 16th I predicted exactly this coming to pass in the article The depth of the disaster for the Islamists starts to become clear:
So as the Islamic politicians of Pakistan survey how in the matter of eight days the entire situation in Afghanistan has turned upside down, the families and friends of the dead Pakistani boys who listened and then marched to their deaths across the Khyber pass are going to start asking ‘why?’ When people start to figure out the answer, I don’t think the forces of Islamo-fascism are going to like what happens next. It must be slowly dawning on the more secular forces in Pakistan that their Islamist political enemies are starting to look very exposed indeed
This is probably not quite the result Osama had in mind on September 11.
I told you so.
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Who Are We? The Samizdata people are a bunch of sinister and heavily armed globalist illuminati who seek to infect the entire world with the values of personal liberty and several property. Amongst our many crimes is a sense of humour and the intermittent use of British spelling.
We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe.
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