We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

An interesting music video

Since we are talking about MP3s, music and the like – okay, a degree or two of separation exists here – I want to point out a rather fascinating music video clip that I saw recently. It is a dance track by British group Faithless, called I Want More (link for streaming video). The song will not be to everyone’s taste, but the video clip offers a pretty remarkable view of the preparation and execution of a North Korean propaganda spectacular. Parts of it are surprisingly candid – in one shot of the Pyongyang skyline, the viewer catches a shadowy glimpse of the sinister-looking Ryugyong Hotel.

I am led to believe, by a fellow I know who has visited the North, that this monument to collectivist misallocation of resources officially does not exist in the Hermit Kingdom (despite the highly convincing optical illusion) so it is surprising to see it turn up in a clip that must have been sanctioned by the authorities. I like the way the vision of a gymnast with a sore back is juxtaposed with an onlooker writing down presumably critical pointers in a notepad. The expression on the boy’s face when he is late to turn a page in his giant colour display book made me laugh. I also like the shot of the utterly bored and po-faced military brass clapping along like robots.

As the track rolls on, the show starts getting highly impressive. However, by the time the song’s over the sinister and tragic undercurrents are resonating the most. So much talent – such potential – is wasted celebrating the hideous reign of men who routinely deny their people the basic necessities of life, like food and freedom. It surprised me how such a dazzling display of skill and synchronicity could provoke such a combination of fascination and revulsion.

Thoughts on China’s future

I have been wandering through the fascinating nation of China of late, so I have not had much time to peruse the blogosphere – I guess this means that for a month I had a life. I was fortunate enough to spend a few days in the beautiful city of Lijiang in Yun’nan province. This mid-sized Chinese town is famed for its wonderfully restored ‘old city’, a cobbled and confusing maze of shops, traditional inns with gorgeous courtyards and a grid of small canals filled with luminous fish and gushing clean water. A beautiful place to while away a few days, but Lijiang is not really known for its nightlife. So on the evening of the 25th of December, I got trawling through some of the past articles on Samizdata. Reading through the comments section on this post, I noticed that an article I wrote early in 2005 got a mention. It was a pity I was not around a computer regularly, because a debate raged in the comments section that I would have very much liked to have been a part of. For all my appreciation of China, I am one of the few Sino sceptics.

I should explain. I am not a sceptic of the aspirations of the billions of Chinese people who sense greatness in the Chinese identity. After all, I’m mentioning a deeply rich culture backed up by a vast talent pool on the mainland and in the diaspora that has the capacity to change the world radically in the future. I am, however, deeply pessimistic about China in its current nominally Communist incarnation, for reasons I have outlined in a previous post. I will not go into specifics; if you’re curious, please read my rationale here.

Some interesting developments have taken place between now and then, however. These merit further analysis. One or two of the commenters in the mentioned Samizdata piece stated that they were keeping abreast of banking developments in the Middle Kingdom. In 2002, Chinese officials admitted that 25% of the loans written by the state owned banks were non-performing. Standard and Poors and a number of others said it was closer to 50%, and possibly more. Within the space of four years, the Chinese administration has revised its estimation of the rate of non-performing loans down to an average of about 12%. How can this be done so fast? I’m not really sure. We are, of course, talking about the writing down or otherwise accounting for of many hundreds of billions of dollars of bad loans. I assume that it’s due to the fact that most or all of the bad loans have been transferred to special “asset management” companies set up by the government. I suspect that the banks have been able to revise their non-performing loans (NPL) ratio down so quickly by performing a debt-to-equity swap with these holding companies. The article linked to immediately above believes the asset management companies have taken a chunk of the banks’ loans and issued them with 10 year bonds in return. → Continue reading: Thoughts on China’s future