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I had a small bit of free time this morning, so I have counted the December numbers for Coalition deaths. Without further ado, here is this month’s plot:
Copyright Dale Amon. All rights reserved. May be used with attribution to Samizdata
This month contains a higher number of casualties among other Coalition troops than usual. 5 Bulgarians and 2 Thai’s are included in the combat deaths (hostile) count and one Pole was involved in a fatal accident (non-hostile). American combat deaths fell to 25; no Brits were killed either by accident or in combat in December (Two died in a road accident on the New Year). It is concievable but not provable the surviving Saddamites are specifically targetting non-US/UK forces in hopes of frightening their governments out of the coaltion. Only on the ground intelligence could tell us and that sort of information is rightfully not in the public domain.
Most significant, of course, is the large drop. One could hypothesize the opposition threw everything they had into a ‘Tet Offensive’. Like the Viet-Cong before them, they lost; unlike the Viet-Cong there is no regular army from a neighboring country, armed and funded by a super-power, to take their place.
This is only a supposition; one cannot state this with any confidence of being correct until there are a few more months of data to back it up. One could alternatively hypothesize the enemy is quietly regrouping after their offensive. I do not believe this, but it is certainly possible.
Iraqis are not just depending on government to protect their new liberty. According to this report from the Coalition Provisional Authority, they are armed and dangerous… to terrorists:
Elsewhere in Baghdad, individuals inside a white Opel fired small arms at ICDC personnel at the Al-Amil gas station. The Civil Defense Corps soldiers returned fire, and Iraqi customers waiting for fuel also fired at the Opel. The assailants broke contact, and a search of the area met with negative results.
Is it just me or does this paragraph sound like something out of an L Neil Smith novel?
I’m going to be on the road again this month, so I don’t know how much posting I’ll be doing for a few weeks. It is the perk and the curse of being a freelance consultant. The upside is lots of travel and interesting people. The downside is lots of travel: sometimes three or even six months at a stretch away from home. The other downside is spending months at home between jobs with little to do but learn new and interesting ways of convincing the landlord not to put you out on the street.
This will be a short trip. I’ll be doing a job in San Francisco for a week and then back to Manhattan for a few days before coming home. On the San Fran end I simply won’t have time for anything – it will be 12 hour days netcasting a major business conference for which failure is not an option. As soon as we load out, we catch a Redeye flightback to the East Coast.
If any Manhattan bloggers are interested, I will have some free evening time there between January 16th and 22nd. (I have been known to frequent the Trad music haunts of the Lower East). If you miss me, don’t worry all that much: I’ve a regular customer there and pass through once or twice in almost every year.
It has been a busy couple of weeks: two proposals and the holiday season on top of it. It’s had me so tied up I am just now getting around to other matters.
I’m ‘throwing my hat in the ring’ for the next National Space Society Board of Directors election. The time left for me to be included amongst the Board nominees is rather short. I need my signed petitions into the NSS office by midnight January 15th. I’ve already emailed petition forms to a bunch of folk, a few of which I know are also Samizdata readers. If you are not one of them (ie you didn’t just get an email from me) and know you will be a paid up member of the Society as of January 15th, 2004, please contact me via the comments section and I’ll send you a copy of the petition and related information.
Note that attempting to send email directly to me will result in delays of a day or two as I have a white list which dumps all unexpected mail into a holding pen.
While answering a comment I had a sudden realization: Scaled Composites is going to take the Triple Crown of aerospace.
There are three top records in aviation. Distance. Speed. Altitude. The Scaled Composite built Voyager already holds the distance record with their around the world flight.
SpaceShipOne is a 21st Century version of the X15, which holds the other two records. I think SpaceShipOne is going to take the altitude record off of it very soon. If it can do that, it may also be capable of taking the speed record in a different flight profile if it can avoid overheating.
This is getting very interesting.
I’ve finally got my hands on the Scaled Composites flight test report from Dec 17th, 2003:
Objectives: The eighth flight of SpaceShipOne and first powered flight. 15 second burn of the rocket motor and supersonic flight. Motor light off at altitude and inflight engine performance. Vehicle handling qualities through transonics and feather performance from altitude.
Results: Launch conditions were 47,900 feet and 112 knots. Motor light off was achieved at 44,400 feet and 0.55M. Burnout occurred at 1.2M and apogee was 67,800 feet. There was no noted flight control flutter or buzz during the climb. Feather recovery exhibited a +/-30 roll initially and then settled down into the familiar falling bathtub mode. The wing was de-feathered and locked by 35,000 feet. A nominal landing pattern was flown but touchdown caused the left main gear to collapse and the vehicle rolled to a stop off the runway in the soft sand. Although the damage was not major, repairs are expected to take approximately three weeks to complete.
Now hands up for everyone who believes NASA could return an unmanned children’s kite to flight in three weeks after a gear collapse…
Here are the official Press Releases. Microsoft billionaire Paul G. Allen has used the event as an opportunity to admit what everyone knew: he is the secret backer of the Rutan’s project. The second release is the official announcement of the flight, warts and all.
They reached 68,000 feet after a 15 second burn and hit Mach 1.2 during the flight.
I’m not all that surprised they went supersonic. I was thinking about the issue and suspected the thrust to weight on that craft is such they’d have little other choice for a serious test. I’ve been watching them gradually build up the test profile over the last couple months. Even so, I was a bit surprised to see the first powered flight of SpaceShipOne push the envelope as aggressively as it did.
They have tested it several times in a sort of hammerhead stall if the picture I get from the test documents is right. They let it fall off the top in a stall and then recover control. The vertical stall at altitude is part of the testing for recovery of control on re-entry. As I understand it, they do not have an RCS (Reaction Control System, what you use when there ain’t no air for ailerons). If true, they will be more cautious as they begin probing non-aerodynamic altitudes as they are depending on the inherent balance of the ship to keep it facing forwards and rightside up.
From here on out, they are reaching for Space. They’ll take SpaceShipOne higher and faster flight by flight until they finally put some vacuum under her tail.
Those supporting the government position have said high costs are inherent in space flight. The short time scale, low costs and aggressive testing program of Scaled Composites should be an eye-opener to those nay-sayers. What I and others have been writing for nearly a quarter of a century is correct. The rocketmen are not underestimating the cost of space. It is the government and government contractors who have been “ripping the arse” out of the public purse.
After twenty-five years of the blood, sweat and tears of pioneering rocketmen from Zaire to Matagordo Island to San Francisco Bay to Vandenberg we have proven our case. Scaled Composites is not alone. There are others close behind them. Many first flights will happen this decade in a reprise of the totally private aviation of 1903-1910.
It is the end of the beginning and a marvelous time to be alive.
Note: Doug Jones reports SpaceShipOne has a cold gas RCS. I find this very comforting.
It is rather late here and I’ve had a flu bug all week… but I had to confirm and report this before I call it a night.
One of our readers (Juliam Morrison) mentioned in comments that SpaceShipOne went supersonic. I’ve just chatted with Jeff Greason of XCOR, another Mojave denizen and confirmed it.
On December 17th, 2003, SpaceShipOne dropped from the mother ship, lit the rocket engine and broke the sound barrier. The Space Age is about to begin.
I probably won’t have the flight data for a couple days, but I’ll pull the press release tomorrow and post the info.
Now, was I right or was I right?
The Soham murder trial is finally over and Ian Huntley is on his well deserved way to a life behind bars. Should he somehow manage a reincarnation, he will still have a second life sentence left to serve.
What I found most interesting in the news tonight was the telephone poll taken by Channel Five. 94% of the respondents believe there should be a death penalty for those who kill children. If the murders of those two lovely young children had happened in the US, such a public opinion would not seem surprising. But for the UK? My jaw may require wiring.
Now… how many children was it Saddam murdered?
I’ve spent nearly the entire evening watching the news. BBC1 and ITV4 in particular had a great deal of coverage of the event here. It is of course about politics according to the BBC Washington correspondents… as if Dean ever had a prayer of a snowflake chance in hell of winning next fall.
Ken Adelman gave two marvelous remote screen debate performances within an hour and on both channels. Jon Snow was at a loss for words when he said to Adelman: “Of course you will be for that (Saddam’s execution)” And Ken had him off balance simply by retorting, “Why do you assume that?”
But the biggest laughs I had this evening were the constant use of the Q word. On BBC1 there were two different reporters using it within minutes of each other.
Hey, the BBC lads in Iraq have to invent some silver lining in all this!
There were big anti-terror/pro-democracy demonstrations in Baghdad today. Glenn Reynolds points out they were noticed grudgingly, when at all, by the ‘professional’ ‘media’. A few years ago this would have meant the story didn’t exist.
Times change.
Scaled Composites carried out its seventh drop of SpaceShipOne on December 4th. According to the test report, pre-ignition propulsion system checks seem to be moving forward nicely:
Objectives: The seventh glide flight of SpaceShipOne and new pilot check out. Full functional check of the propulsion system by cold flowing nitrous oxide. Completed airspeed and positive and negative G-envelope expansion.
Results: Launch conditions were 48,400 feet and 115 knots. All propulsion components, displays and functionality performed as designed. The feather was extended after a 4G pull-up to the vertical at 24,500 feet and rudder used to induce sideslip and yaw rates while “going-over-the-top”. The vehicle recovered to a stable attitude and descent after only a single oscillation. The landing pattern was flown following established procedures resulting in a satisfactory touchdown.
December 17th is less than a week away, very close to two weeks from when this flight test occured. That is close enough to the intervals between the last three tests one could expect at least a drop test on the Wright Brothers First Flight date. I still think an in-flight engine ignition and a short burn is within the realm of possibility.
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