We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
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Sometimes I write because something needs to be said or brought to the attention of our readers. Other times I write because something is just simply so interesting I must tell someone about it. On rare occasions I write because I have to.
This is one of them.
This evening Channel 4 showed a documentary “Challenger: Countdown to Disaster”. I tend to avoid such programs but this time I decided to watch. I was actually quite surprised by the instant and gut-wrenching emotional impact it had on me. Christa and the rest of The Seven marching out with smiles on their faces. The family and teachers and friends in the viewing stands. The black puff of smoke. The demon mask in the sky. The long fall.
To this day it just rips me apart inside.
I doubt many of you watched and doubt even more that those who did felt anything other than interest in the story. For me it is very different and that difference is why I am writing. → Continue reading: Challenger remembered
The author of an article I read this morning wonders if the approach of the USS Nimitz Forced Iran’s Decision to release the British hostages. It is an interesting read but I can personally neither confirm nor deny the truth of it.
I do not think the regime in Iran is going to have a long life. Between their economic problems and falling birth rates they have serious problems, ones which a theocracy with delusions of grandeur will simply not be able to deal with.
There is a sense of familiarity to all of this. Iran, hostages, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad… Perhaps Mahmoud has reached the point in his life where reality has diverged so far from his youthful dreams that he must resort to the reliving of fond memories. True, there was no easy way to collect a group of American diplomats for real fun, but hey, a bunch of young British sailors? Why not?
Let us never forget who this man is and what he represents. Some American diplomats still remember his face from their long ordeal in Iran almost 30 years ago.
One problem for Mahmy this time around is the lack of a Jimmy Carter. Jimmy certainly has to be in the running for the worst President the United States has ever had. I do not think Tony Blair, whatever else you may think of him, is an incompetent fool. Neither he nor heir apparent Gordon will deal with this blatant kidnapping in such a way as to damage their political prospects for the next election.
Even if they manage to make a total bollocks of this hostage crisis and turn the public against them… David Cameron is no Ronald Reagan.
After the flight termination a week or two ago, I promised our commentariat I would post information on the problems which caused the second test flight to not reach orbit. A few days ago Elon Musk released this statement:
Post flight review of telemetry has verified that oscillation of the second stage late in the mission is the only thing that stopped Falcon 1 from reaching full orbital velocity. The second stage was otherwise functioning well and even deployed the satellite mass simulator ring at the end of flight! Actual final velocity was 5.1 km/s or 11,000 mph, whereas 7.5 km/s or 17,000 mph is needed for orbit. Altitude was confirmed to be 289 km or 180 miles, which is certainly enough for orbit and is about where the Space Shuttle enters its initial parking orbit.
It turns out that as many of us suspected, there was a feedback between fuel slosh and the control equations:
In a nutshell, the data shows that the increasing oscillation of the second stage was likely due to the slosh frequency in the liquid oxygen (LOX) tank coupling with the thrust vector control (engine steering) system. This started out as a pitch-yaw movement and then transitioned into a corkscrewing motion. For those that aren’t engineers, imagine holding a bowl of soup and moving it from side to side with small movements, until the entire soup mass is shifting dramatically. Our simulations prior to flight had led us to believe that the control system would be able to damp out slosh, however we had not accounted for the perturbations of a contact on the stage during separation, followed by a hard slew to get back on track.
There was indeed a contact of the first stage with the bell of the stage two motor at stage separation and it was indeed not a big thing:
The nozzle impact during stage separation occurred due to a much higher than expected vehicle rotation rate of about 2.5 deg/sec vs. max expected of 0.5 deg/sec. As the 2nd stage nozzle exited the interstage, the first stage was rotating so fast that it contacted the niobium nozzle. There was no apparent damage to the nozzle, which is not a big surprise given that niobium is tough stuff.
The unexpectedly high rotation rate was due to not knowing the shutdown transient of the 1st stage engine (Merlin) under flight conditions. The actual shutdown transient had a very high pitch over force, causing five times the max expected rotation rate.
The vehicle will be launching a satellite on its next flight:
The reason that flight two can legitimately be called a near complete success as a test flight is that we have excellent data throughout the whole orbit insertion profile, including well past second stage shutdown, and met all of the primary objectives established beforehand by our customer (DARPA/AF). This allows us to wrap up the test phase of the Falcon 1 program and transition to the operational phase, beginning with the TacSat mission at the end of summer. Let me be clear here and now that anything less than orbit for that flight or any Falcon 1 mission with an operational satellite will unequivocally be considered a failure.
This is all very good news to the new space industry. There is also supposed to be some more good news this month: Bob Bigelow of Bigelow Aerospace, maker of fine inflatable space stations, is supposed to make an important announcement. I suspect it has to do with a next launch date and he may announce he is skipping more intermediate tests or perhaps even an early anchor tenant for an operational station… if we were to speculate even more wildly.
All of us in ‘the biz’ will be watching closing.
If you enjoyed the You-Tube video which Thaddeus pointed out, you can find the main track and much more at the band’s web site: Stuck Mojo Media.
As I spent a good chunk of my life on the bottom end of the music business I know what life there is like. Let us just say I never gave up my day job.The cost of instruments, equipment, recording, new strings for each major gig and not to mention the bar tab… make a musicians life a tough one. Even if you do have the day job to live on, you spend your life in deep levels of sleep deprivation. The only thing which keeps you going is the buzz you get from the audience. Please show these guys your gratitude by buying their music or putting something in their tip jar.
Do your part to make sure they can keep doing what they are doing!
Another episode of “The Trap’ has been shown… I gave it a pass given the low quality of scholarship and the high level of ‘argument by personal attack’ in the first one. It seems this low brow method was used against other targets in the latest episode, this time with the author of Public Choice Theory as one of the targets.
First a basic primer for the recent commenter to my earlier article. The personal life of a creative person has nothing to do with whether their creation is right or wrong. That decision is made in the marketplace of ideas and in the appropriate research journals. Anyone who thinks otherwise has something brown leaking out their ears.
If we judged ideas by the personal life of the creator, we would toss Vincent Van Gogh’s paintings in the bin. The man was a nutter who cut off his ear. Obviously his paintings must be garbage. Or maybe the whole basis of cybernetics is wrong! After all, Turing was gay! All those right wing conspiracy types must obviously think anything he created must be wrong! And Einstein? That wild haired fruitcake? Marx? A drunken womanizer!
Argument by ad hominem will get no one anywhere with anyone at Samizdata.
It also helps to have some knowledge of the subjects on which you expostulate, or to at least state your areas of ignorance out front. The idea that public workers do not work to make life better for their families just like anyone else is absurd: and that is what saying ‘Public Choice Theory is wrong’ means. Suggesting that markets will always ‘collapse to a point’ is absurd and counter-factual. It is not OFCOM that makes BBC ‘better’. It is competition with the high production values of programs from elsewhere that are indeed (more) free market than the UK in this respect. The rhetorical concept which is thus indirectly espoused by our commenter that “REGULATION is INDIVIDUALISM” is just plain silly.
I invite you all to read the comment on that previous article and disassemble the commenter’s argument into its weak component parts as I have not the time to do so at the moment.
The next International Space Development Conference (ISDC) will be held in Dallas over the Memorial Day weekend this year. Of particular interest to all of our Space Venturers is the symposium to be held on the front of it.
Here is the press release:
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National Space Society to Host Second Annual Space Venture Finance Symposium at 2007 International Space Development Conference
Commercial space investment symposium scheduled for May 24, 2007 at the Hotel InterContinental in Dallas, Texas
WASHINGTON, March 23, 2007 – The National Space Society today announced the second annual Symposium on Space Venture Finance, to be held on Thursday, May 24, in conjunction with the 2007 International Space Development Conference (ISDC) in Dallas, Texas. Bringing together leaders in the investment and space communities, the symposium will focus on recent innovations and deals in early- and mid-stage finance within the commercial space, spaceport, satellite and space-related information technology industries. → Continue reading: Space Venture Forum at NSS Conference in May
The webcast has not yet started but will be here when it does.
2218 GMT: T minus 0 seems to have been pushed back to 2330 GMT. I will report as I get news.
2225 GMT: T minus 0 is now set for 0005 GMT; webcast is to begin at approximately 2305 GMT.
2300 GMT: There will be two burns of the second stage, separated by about an hour. The second burn is strictly a test. In operation it would be a correction or plane change or circularization burn. Most importantly, this will prove they have an engine that is restartable in microgravity. This is not as easy to do as you might think…
2307 GMT: Web cast is now live.
2317 GMT: Fuel and oxidizer loads of the first and second stage are in progress. The video signal is having some problems however, as I am sure any watchers will have noticed!
2328 GMT: First stage LOX fill completed.
2331 GMT: First stage fuel load completed.
2336 GMT: This just in: “Media call note that the webcam problems are unknown and this is what you all may be stuck with.”
2339 GMT: Both stages fully loaded with Kerosene (RP1), LOX and Helium tank pressurization .
2348 GMT: T-218 now, Helium top off. The are having some telemetry probs with the stage 1 recovery ship… which has just now been solved.
2350 GMT: All operator stations report ready status for terminal countdown. Cleared for launch!
2356 GMT: Entering terminal count! T-10.
0006 GMT: Terminal count abort after engine ignition. Impressive that they could stop it here, sad that they had to. Will report as I here more.
0016 GMT: This is amazing. They are recyling to T-10!!! I have *never* in my life seen such a thing! Ignition has always been the point of no return or at least a full scrub. I stand in awe.
0021 GMT: Shutdown was due to chamber pressure being 1% low. There was apparently a fair amount of swearing going on… they may still try for a launch. Range is okay with a recycle.
0044 GMT: They are well into the recycle for a second try. Count is still in a hold at T-16 while they recycle.
0056 GMT: The clock is running again. T-14:30!
0057 GMT: Cleared for launch again.
0101 GMT: Into terminal count again at T-10.
0112 GMT: Launch successful! Passing through Max Q. Now the big one coming up is Stage sep…
0114 GMT: THEY DID IT!!!! SECOND STAGE SEP AND FIRE: FARING SEP CONFIRMED!!!!! 117km altitude!!!!
0126 GMT: There is some discussion as to whether the first stage sep bumped the second stage engine bell. There were some signs of oscillation of the engine before it got out of range and the webcast terminated. So they made it into space but we will have to wait to find out if this test flight made orbit.
The Kwajalein launch abort of the SpaceX Falcon 1 rocket yesterday was caused by a minor timing problem that would not have affected the launch. According to Elon Musk:
The abort that occurred a few minutes before T-0 was triggered by our ground control software. It commanded a switchover of range telemetry from landline to radio, which took place correctly, however, because of the hardware involved, this transition takes a few hundred milliseconds. Before it had time to complete, our system verification software examined state and aborted.
I remember the first Space Shuttle launch attempt (STS-1) being scrubbed on first try due to… a software timing glitch between the redundant onboard computers. Certain classes of problems (like LOX valve freeze ups) are just in the nature of the beast, part of the learning curve of a new vehicle and launch control system.
The software fix has been uploaded and a launch attempt is scheduled for 1600 Pacific time today. As I type it is 17:37:32 UTC (GMT) and 10:37:32 AM PDT putting the launch about 5 hours from now. I will return about an hour before launch and give commentary as I did last night.
See you all later!
You have all heard excerpts from Khalid’s testimony… now you can
read the transcript.
Personally I think burying him up to his neck in a pig sty and leaving him there until he dies of excrement ingestion would be the minimum level of punishment he deserves.
The SpaceX flight readiness review has cleared Falcon 1 for launch from Kwajalein at 1600 Pacific Time (US West Coast). As I post it is 19:40:40 UTC here and 12:40:40 PM PDT there. Those who are interested can watch the launch here in about three hours.
They have stated they will scrub today’s launch if there is the tiniest doubt or problem.
2220GMT: Launch is about 40 minutes away and the bird is sitting on the pad with some boil off showing around the interstage. Wish I were there instead of the freezing cold here in Belfast tonight!
2225GMT: I have just read a report that there are some telemetry problems between Kwaj and El Segundo.
2227GMT. They are in a planned hold. Wind is 13 knots at 050.
2239GMT. Still telemetry problems. Most of the engineering eyeballs are at the office in El Segundo rather than onsite, so it could cause a scrub if not solved soon.
2256GMT. Telemetry problem sorted. At the moment we are go for launch today.
2300GMT. T-0 is now set for 2345 GMT.
2305GMT: They have recommenced fueling and you can see the boil off at the interstage and up on the second stage.
2317GMT: Audio on webcast has begun, fueling is reported complete. I see quite heavy venting at the interstage.
2320GMT. Venting at engines visible now. This bird is raring to go!
2330GMT: 15 minutes to go, Everything is green!
2332GMT: Cleared for launch, no more holds in count.
2342GMT: T-4. There are 5600 people watching the live stream.
2345GMT: Terminal count abort. I will let you know when I get some info on why.
2358GMT: Abort due to a range issue. There will be a decision on recycling and continuing within the next 10 minutes or so.
0011GMT: It’s a scrub for today. I will let you know when. It will be at least 24-48 hrs.
0033GMT: Recycle is for 24 hours. See you all tomorrow, same time GMT. Goodnight all!
Elon Musk’s SpaceX has announced its pre-flight engine test was successful. A Kwajalein launch attempt is now planned for this week and may happen as early as tomorrow.
The first flight, last year, was terminated by flight control systems on board when a problem was detected. The majority of the rocket’s systems had performed flawlessly but as it turns out a corroded nut caused a small leak and an engine fire. SpaceX engineers have spent the last year making their systems more robust.
Good luck and hot jets, Elon!
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Who Are We? The Samizdata people are a bunch of sinister and heavily armed globalist illuminati who seek to infect the entire world with the values of personal liberty and several property. Amongst our many crimes is a sense of humour and the intermittent use of British spelling.
We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe.
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