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Is war with Syria imminent? With the IAF striking border crossings with Syria and the Syrians shooting down an Israeli reconnaissance drone in Lebanon, perhaps a greater Middle East war is indeed at hand. As Israel really has no viable options that do not involve destroying Hezbollah and destroying Hezbollah probably requires preventing Syria from acting as either a safe haven or supply source, a wider war was probably inevitable.
Seeing the last of the Ba’athists in Syria crushed would be splendid but of course the most likely people to fill their still smoking shoes would be Islamists of some ilk. Not easy to see a happy outcome no matter what happens and yet doing nothing is not an option for Israel either given that it would be pointless to try and negotiate with such intractable enemies when in truth they will be satisfied with nothing less that Israel’s annihilation.
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I’d say it’s more likely than not. It also seems to be what the Iranians(Link) want:
Maybe – but Israel’s offensive so far has been pretty half-assed, considering. Beating Hezbollah requires disbanding them and driving them out – a la the PLO. And that requires a ground invasion. Israel is only now getting around to massing troops, and even so it’s not certain that they’re going in in force. Seems like they’re trying hard not to step on toes to me. If they’d wanted a war with Syria, we all know from history that a ground invasion would have done the trick.
No, it’s not. Quite the contrary. The Syrians are desperate to play this one by proxy, because they’d lose, spectacularly and very fast, if it actually came to direct war with Israel.
(The Iranians have to play by proxy, they have no overland access. Iraq walls them off.)
Here are some upbeat views:
Hezbollah is On the Ropes
http://commentary.threatswatch.org/2006/08/hizballah-is-on-the-ropes/
Ground Assault Map: IDF Pounding Hezbollah
http://hashmonean.com/2006/08/02/ground-assault-map-idf-pounding-hezbollah/
Don’t worry. I hear the French are on their way.
…in truth they will be satisfied with nothing less that Israel’s annihilation
In truth, I doubt that. Truth is to Arab politicians, as it is to Tony Blair (but more so), instrumentally defined: whatever it is convenient to believe will puff up their rhetoric with sincere emotional effusion. And what it is convenient to believe is that Israel is the most pressing problem in the world, against which all the anger and hatred of the mobs should be stirred up and directed. In the actual absence of Israel, the attention of people in the Middle East might turn inward to their own political problems. In the absence of a posture of hostility to Israel, then the criticisms of the Islamists about corruption would have more bite.
They want to keep the official and popular hate going. They really don’t want it resolved. Dictatorship is about maintaining and increasing your power in the eternal now. Big changes cannot be controlled.
“Israel’s offensive so far has been pretty half-assed… Israel is only now getting around to massing troops”
We need to remember that Israel’s action in Lebanon is a reaction to events (namely the kidnap of a couple of Israeli soldiers). They weren’t actively planning a ground invasion, nor prepared to carry one out. I’m not at all surprised that it has taken a few weeks for the Israeli army to be in a position where it can carry out an invasion of Lebanon on a large scale, given the logistical problems of doing so.
On a more general note, I wonder if a ratcheting up of tensions between Syria and Israel might oddly enough provide extra impetus for a cease-fire. The more chance there is of this conflict spreading, the more pressure Israel will come under from the international community, including the US.
The US should take on Syria and Iran now, provided that Russia and China don’t threaten to step in. Syria and Iran are the only two countires that keep mouthing off about the west and Israel and harping on about ‘destroying’ them. I honestly think that the Iranian leader is a madman and he needs taking down immediatelty. It will be a long, even and costly war but I honestly think that as long as there is no risk of global war, the dust will settle and a new middle east will be born.
One good thing about the war in Iraq is that a lot of Syrian Muslim Brotherhood types have been killed in it -so they are not back home plotting to turn Syria into Islamic nut regime.
Of course quite a few of the M.B.s are still alive – but there we go.
As for Guy’s explination that the Arabs do not really mean to wipe out Israel.
Sure Arab talk can not be relied upon (telling lies is part of the culture – indeed, I am told, the structure of the language). But destroying Israel is something they believe in it – if it there is a practical chance to do it.
Basically they see Israel as like the Crusader states – the “iron men” (which did not just mean that they dressed in armour) defeated them again and again (inspite of being outnumbered sometimes ten to one).
But one can defeat the Arabs a thousand times – and there are always more Arabs. They only have to win once.
One day the Arabs may well win – and the Jews who die quickly will be the lucky ones.
The problem is that Olmert and Halutz are incompetent fouls.
Olmert had the stupidity to talk about evacuating Judeia/Samaria while his country is at war.
The so called ofensive only went 4km inside Lebanon.
Rockets continue to fall, yesterday was the record day.
That is what happens when you have Peace Now! waging war.
The fact that the present Israeli government is NOT made up of “hardliners” (or whatever other terms are used) is hardly ever reported in Britian (or indeed anywhere outside the United States).
For example, the Defence minister is the big welfare state, peace-at-any-price person who forced out Perez (no hard liner himself) out of being leader of the Labour party.
As for the British government position – hand over every inch of the “West Bank”, well that would leave Israel only a few miles wide at the narrow point.
The Arabs would have to be saints not to attack at some time if given that situation.
The Dale Amon position (do not respond to the attack from Lebanon because this is falling into a Hez trap -and if one waits the Hez will decline in importance) may have been sensible.
Although it does rather over look the point that the Hez could just attack again and again. Eventually there would have to be war.
Still it is to late for the discussion now.
Now it is a fight to the finish – if the Hez are not driven off then Israel will be humilated (a fatal sign of weakness).
I hope that bunch of nonmilitary types who make up the Israeli government understand that.
to and too – and the rest.
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