First they went for New York, then they hit Bali, now they are hitting their own backyard. This is terrorism back in serious business? That’s what I was thinking, and now this guy, damn him, an unnamed e-mailer to this has said it all for me. Best to read the whole thing, but here are a few key paragraphs:
The most telling aspect of these last two attacks is the geographic locations – Arabic countries nearby radical Islamist regimes. In the case of Saudi Arabia, parts of their own country can be considered radically Islamist; Morocco’s location adjacent to Algeria has always made it a prime target.
Why did they hit New York? Because they could. Now, they can’t. Why did they hit Bali? Because they could. Now they can’t. So why are they now hitting their own back yard? Because they can. And that’s all they can.
Why is this telling? These locations are within the “local” sphere of Arabic influence. The infrastructure and resources required to bring the fight to the enemy’s territory (us) has been effectively disrupted. Logistical planning and operational expertise has been effectively eliminated. Al-Qaeda can rely only on local extremist support, as that is what is left. The low-tech, Palestinian method, effectively demonstrates that few resources are available and that the imagination and planning required for more sophisticated attacks is just not present.
Well maybe it’s not all they can now hit, and sometime Real Soon Now maybe they’ll prove me, and this guy, wrong. I’m only optimistic that they won’t hit New York (or London, or Paris, or Rome) because a lot of smart and hardworking people are absolutely not taking this for granted. It’s like how you back a good sports team to win their big game, precisely because they don’t assume that they’ll win, that being all part of what makes them so good.
That necessary caveat aside, my bet about how things are now going is the same as this guy’s bet:
The war on terror has been a success. The arena has not shifted. The roll back continues. Arabic countries have now been forced into the realization that, for their own survival, these groups must be destroyed. These regimes are nothing if not ruthless. Expect a surge of beheadings in the near future.
Soon, in other words, they won’t even be able to hit their own back yard. With luck, and lots more not taking things for granted by our team, there will then, or eventually (after a few more horrors in out of the way spots), be a long period of silence. And then slowly, very slowly, it will dawn on everyone that it just might be … over.
And the moral is, if you have a clever thought, post it fast, or someone else will get to it first.
One seriously doubts it will be over.
Terrorism is a child of this century, it only requires seriously disaffected and fanatical people and access to good explosives.
We maybe be able to contain it, and limit it’s effects to a bus here and bar or building there. But we’ll all be dead of (hopefully) graceful old age and it’ll still be going on.
There will always be some nutcase with a cause.
And virulent Islam amongst other causes is not going away.
Fred
How confident are we that Saudi Arabia will actually punish the very sort of behavior which it funds?
As you sow the wind so shall you reap it.
I have to disagree with Fred. Stopping terror is a heck of a lot more difficult than letting it continue… and stopping it COMPLETELY is orders of magnitude harder.
But it’s not impossible. What is needed is for civilized countries, everywhere, to make it clear that terror is a blow against civilization itself, and will absolutely not be tolerated. (For the cynical among us, we also need for the UNCIVILIZED countries to realize that it’s in THEIR best interest to stamp out terrorism too… because a national sponsor of terrorism, in the end, has all the disadvantages and none of the advantages of the terrorists. Syria can’t hide; we know exactly where it is.)
One last thought. Let’s not forget about terrorism elsewhere; there are still little pockets of it scattered around the globe, and they still exist, to a large degree, because we haven’t addressed it as harshly as the terrorism directed against us.
The terrorism that targets Israel is a classic example. Why do they strike Israel?… Because they can. Why is it that they can?… Because Israel does not take the drastic, and perhaps brutal, steps that would be necessary to end it. And why does Israel hold back?… BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES TELLS HER TO.
Daniel in Medford
I wish… their pattern has been 18-36 months between multiple target assaults so this was within the pattern… you could even argue it’s accelerating with the multiple attacks in the two countries but it’s a little thin.
I don’t mean to argue that we haven’t accomplished much, quite the opposite… 6 of my neighbors up the street at the local terror center ( mosque ) were disappointed about their little trip to Afghanistan not working out so they returned and ended up on tape bragging about their plans to shoot up the local Jewish Community Center’s children… Oooops… so sorry…
So have we turned the tide… sure… are we winning… sorry… that’s a little thin too…
How can we be sure the Saudia Arabia will crack down on perpatrators of terrorism? Quite simply because of the NIMBY syndrome.
Suicide bombings are all the rage amongst Arab-supremacists, as long it doesn’t happen in their neighborhood. Suicide bombings are a sign, among Arab leaders, that the neighborhood has gone to hell. With bombings in Israel/Palestine, that’s fine because it’s going on “over there” where that “jew problem” continues.
But when it happens at home, under your roof… Daddy’s going to clean out the garbage. For the past 50 years, Arab tyrannies have swept their garbage into other neighborhoods (Israel, Western Europe, USA, India, …) Now the other neighbors aren’t letting the tyrannies put the garbage in their yards, are are going to watch a lot closer to make sure the garbage isn’t just swept under the rug.
Okay, time to end the garbage metaphor!
Eric Anondson [Sept. 11 changed everything. Deposing Saddam’s mafia changed everything else.]
The left and even a lot of more moderate Dems are bashing Bush this week, and claiming that the attacks in Saudi and Morocco “prove” that Bush has pretty much lost the war on terror.
That the Islamofascist nutters could only manage to pull off the attacks in countries where they have considerable state support indicates how week they are. Never mind the fact that they are killing lots of moslems along with a mere handful of westerners. This will probably prove an obstacle to recruiting more loonies to wear ticking sweaters.
At times like this, Americans’ geographic ignorance truly bites us in the ass. If we were just a wee bit more familiar with foreign traditions, we would know something about football, i.e. “soccer”.
And if we did, we’d recognize an “own goal” when we saw it.
Hate has a way of burying good strategy. Militant Islam is creating enemies at an astonishing rate. Ssssshhhhhh.
Hey! This sounds a lot like what I said on Sunday!
If I may quote myself: “There’s one thing you must remember about this latest round of terrorist attacks; they happened in Muslim countries, not in Europe, not in North America. This is not to say that future attacks couldn’t happen on American soil, indeed, we’d be foolish to claim they couldn’t. Rather, it’s a confirmation that American and European efforts against terrorists have had concrete results, have pushed the thugs back onto their home turf. Have no doubt; if these homocide-bombers could have carried out their attacks in New York, or London, or Paris, they would have. But they didn’t, because, for the most part, they can’t. ”
http://travellingshoes.blogspot.com/#94542217
There is no discernable pattern to Al-Qaida’s attacks, despite this myth that they wait 18-36 months. They attack when they get the resources and the opportunity. New York City was a big fat target, and they got TWO chances to take down the towers. There was no grand strategy there — they did it because we did almost nothing to prevent it. You can take any 10 events around the world and make a “pattern” out of them. Since the Afghan war and redoubled global policing, I don’t believe it is false optimism to say that Al-Qaida has resorted to hitting stuff it can hit. Obviously, we are always going to have to worry about this stuff. But it is not unreasonable to make the assessment that maybe, just maybe, the post 9/11 efforts to rein in terrorists might be showing some signs of success. And we need to stop this meme about the “creation of more Islamic terrorists.” Our way of life — tolerance, freedom, capitalism — creates these fanatics, not our bombs and tanks. They will not let us live in peace, period. No matter what we say or do, opportunistic clerics will still be shouting “Death to America.” If we put down our arms and back off, the terrorists will see this as another sign of weakness and will go ahead and finish the job. Don’t kid yourself.
The difference between the lefty blogs and pretty much everyone else is staggering. Doomsaying and Bush-bashing reign without a hint of this. The rift between the left and everyone else grows by the day.
Actually I was agreeing with your point Tommy…
That Al-Qaeda strikes targets of opportunity periodically is a simple observation and an element of their elusiveness that in turn demands extreme vigilance.
I believe that they believe in themselves and therefore we have to take them seriously even though they are cowardly opportunists and incompetents.
We have had success but consider that if they have 18,000 devout member world wide the ‘strike-every-other-year’ strategy can continue perpetually until we aggressively preempt and violently supress.
I also believe the ‘5th column’ of lefties are only being ‘revealed’ in their extremism and that fact is a benefit of the war-on-terror. Fence-sitters now see how illiberal they really are and are drifting to voices of reason… let the lefties rant… it’s very helpful.
As long as terror is working it will continue. Don’t like Americans in Saudi, hit New York and Riyhad. Don’t like the idea that a Palestinian State will not actually force the Jews into the sea…hit Mikes and malls and fire rockets.
Terror will end when the personel and the money are killed and confiscated and when there is no longer any possible gain at any level.
If Arafat were to be bundled into a truck and dumped in a media inaccessible location without any big deal being made of it there is no doubt at all that mcuh of the terror would end in the Middle East.
If Iraq emerges as a moderate Islamic democracy where the oil wealth is used for the Iraqi’s actual and personal benefit, bin Laden recruiting will take a huge hit.
Punishment and hope.
“As long as terror is working it will continue.”
… & there’s a flipside to that; as long as non-violent protest continues to be ignored, there will be people who feel terrorism is their only resort. Certainly gets your cause noticed & discussed by Western governments, even if they do send soldiers/bombs/assassins after some folk.
We should spend more time supporting peaceful movements towards democracy & justice in those areas where people feel they have been done an injustice. You might get a lot less fanatics then.
(note note… i’m not saying “dont’ kill terrorists”.. if some dude blows up, or plans to blow up my, or anyone else’s town hall, i’m all for hunting him down… i’m just saying that maybe a carrot & stick approach, not towards the terrorists themselves, but towards the populations they recruit from, might yield more effective & less costly results than stick alone)