Well, the days roll by and the uncertain drumbeat of war continues. Counting myself as a marginal pro-war type, I must say I have begun to wonder about how far and for how long a military campaign in the Middle East will spread. Will Bush’s pre-emption doctrine end with Iraq, or be applied to other nations? (France – heh-heh!). What about Saudi Arabia? And there are dozens of other countries, not especially chummy with the West, which could be places where folks are cooking up WMDs which could get into the hands of thugs of various descriptions. Just how far could the war on terror go? 100 years?
Here’s an idea: I think one key strategy for encouraging people to depose odious regimes and bring in something better must be a continuous push for greater free trade. I am not being naive, I think. Trade is the great solvent of social strife, while protectionism tends to be the harbinger of such strife.
For example, I’d be happier with the case for going into Iraq if it were tied to a clearly-stated willingness, on the part of the US government and its allies, to immediately lift ALL restrictions on imports of Iraqi goods (such as they are) in the event that Saddam and his thugs fall from power, as in “We will bury Saddam for you for a fistfull of dollars”.
And given that Iraq is probably one of the most secular states in the Middle East, a concerted campaign to promise Iraqis that they can join the capitalist party once Saddam has gone is sure to make it easier for his regime to crumble under pressure. This sort of policy may even encourage people in Iran, for example, who are currently trying to depose the Mullahs, to re-double their efforts.
There’s been a lot of debate about how much “stick” we should apply to defeat terror. I don’t think it idiotic though, to debate the merit of a bit more “carrot”.
On the subject of free trade: am I right in thinking that one of the obstacles to bringing this about is the fractional reserve / central banking system? Is free market international money a prerequisite for global free trade?
I’d be grateful for some ideas and references about this… ..thanks.
Tom
I agree with your premise that free trade–and thus the promotion of economic growth–is needed in Iraq in the long run. However, I highly doubt that talking about promoting trade in Iraq would help the situation much.
I have no doubts that the plan is to remove the sanctions as soon as Saddam is gone, and I believe this is well understood within the international community. If the US explicitly states this, I suspect they will only be providing fodder to those who try to frame this as a ‘war for oil’, because it shifts the US’ focus from security concerns to economic interests.
As a marginal pro-war type you should know better than to ask those sorts of question. But I’m glad you axed.
Given the proclivity of the typical man in the street fighting Muslim in the ME to support terror, support acquisitions of WMD for their own regimes and the contempt they hold for any faith other than their own, indeed sometimes even for their own it would seem the situation is grave. In fact I see many graves in the ME from many different countries. I see them being filled for the next thirty or forty years or until the back of the beast is broken and the faith of the people in Allah finally resembles that of those in the Church of England.
The carrot you’re speaking about should be one of life over death. It’s apparent with the notable exception of the students in Iran that the carrot of freedom over slavery isn’t so appealing.
The first few steps have been taken and the war is on and if there’s any doubt about the outcome consider that the USA has already named Saddam’s successor. Be happy that the new world order is taking shape around the vision of the USA and Great Britain. Blessed are the peacemakers.
NC3, I believe you’re being rather disrespectful of those who participated in the Shiite and Kurdish rebellions against Mr. Hussein, many of whom are no longer with us. To them, “Live Free or Die” was quite literal.
Free trade is not a carrot to be used on the Iraqis, or as a tool in foreign policy.
Free trade is a basic right of all men, and should not be denied to them by governments. People in the US or Britain, or anywhere have the right to buy what they wish, wherever they wish. The Government should not abridge this right by import quotas or permits, and should not impose a tax on them in the form of a tariff.
Government should not confiscate my right and make a carrot out of it.
TJ,
I’m sorry I just can’t grant you a point on that. The Shiites and Kurdish Moslems died because they hated Saddam, not because they loved freedom. Given the opportunity the Shiites and Kurds would implement Islamic law and plant a knife in a Western back. Don’t be so naive to think this isn’t a religious war to the people in the ME. We have no allies there and ultimately can not trust them. Only until the medieval religious component is finally removed will there be some semblance of safety for the Western Democracies. Consider how long and what it took to break the bonds of Imperial Christian Rome and you’ve got an idea of what it is we must do.
Jacob,
Do I detect a libertarian “freedom at all costs” mentality? If you’d like the freedom to sell the equipment to deliver an atomic or bio weapon to my enemy then I reserve the right to blow you away. If you’d like to feed and strengthen my enemy then I reserve the right to starve you. Simple isn’t it?
“as a marginal pro-war type, you should know better than to ask those sort of questions”
Huh? Well, NC3 (you a replicant or something?), I take the view that being in favour on balance of taking down Saddam is not the same as saying that some sort of all-out war in the Middle East for the next 100 years is necessarily the right way forward.
As for the comment above that free trade is a right and not in the gift of the state, I agree with that 100 pc. But one cannot usher in free trade by clapping one’s hands together and reciting the comparative advantage theorem of David Ricardo. It requires actions, such as the removal of tariffs, by government.
Yep, some have guessed that yours truly has qualms about this war. Well, that’s tough.
NC3,
In a free society (and any other too) knowingly trading with criminals (like buying from them stolen goods or selling them arms) and assisting them in any way is a crime.
It is not that thing I was advocating.
I was advocating free trade, bona fide, commercial normal, free trade. The US gvnment should remove obstacles to free trade out of respect for the rights of it’s *own* citizens (and those of Iraq), and to the benefit of it’s own citizens (and also of foreigners).
As to carrots for Iraq – freeing them of the terror regime of a murderous tyrant is the big carrot.
I agree that carrots could be valuable post Iraq, the carrot of liberty as demonstrated in a middle eastern democracy could help change in the surrounding states.
However I think that the effectiveness of the stick needs to be proved first.
Even better if the humanitarian cause can be proved, this would aid revolution in other countries. Any extreme agressive action by a state against popular uprisings would be done in the knowledge that it may result in the stick being applied to the them.