Last night I attended a Libertarian Alliance talk/discussion evening at the Evans household, the talk being given by Antoine Clarke. Here is what Antoine said in an email about his talk beforehand. I learned several interesting things which smarter people than me doubtless already realised but which were new to me. The most interesting thing I learned, assuming Antoine was right about it, was that after the first mega-billion dollar bale-out package failed to be agreed by the politicians of the USA, the market immediately went up. But then, as soon as a revised bale-out package, containing more bribes, was agreed, the market went down. “We should do nothing” is a tough political sell, but the smart move, said Antoine. And McCain should have gone with what, according to Antoine, were apparently his instincts and torpedoed the whole damn bale-out operation, and thereby clung onto a chance of being the next President of the USA.
My take on this is that there is a crowding out effect going on here, big time. I trust we are all familiar with this idea. It says that big government plans of any kind not only do harm because the government plans fail and all the wealth it wastes on them is wasted, but, and arguably even worse, because people with better plans in the same line of business are frightened into inactivity. In this spirit, I recall the disgraced former Tory MP Neil Hamilton once saying at a meeting I attended long ago that the money that an earlier Labour government had spent on buying up and ruining the British motor industry would have done a great deal less harm if it had just been put into several thousand suitcases and chucked into the sea (I daresay this would have been good for inflation also). That way, saner motor car entrepreneurs could have gone to work making cars and car stuff in better ways than then prevailed, unimpeded by the fear of great walls of government “investment” screwing up their plans, bidding up the prices of all the people and all the things they wanted to hire and buy and put to good use.
Well, now, exactly the same thing seems to be happening in the banking industry. Were I one of the immensely rich and immensely sensible banking people who had (a) seen this crash coming and cashed out at roughly the right time, and who now (b) has plans to gobble up failed banks and reorganise them along more sensible lines, I would now, despite all my hopes of profitable new business, be sitting on my hands, waiting for all the government plans to do their immense damage before I went wading in and god chewed up too. Only when these government plans had become an obvious failure, and the politicians had just totally given up, would I be ready to move in and sort things out. Only when the politicians lapse into inactivity, which for a brief shining moment looked as if it might happen straight away, does economic optimism, among the people willing to back their optimism with money, reassert itself.
But, as I like to say from time to time when blogging, what do I know? I am no expert on the banking business, and as I say, I only realised this thing about the ups and downs of the world’s stock exchanges when Antoine Clarke pointed it out to me last night. So, did Antoine get this story right? And have I explained this phenomenon, even part of it, even approximately right? Tomorrow afternoon, Antoine, I, and fellow Samizdatista Michael Jennings will be getting together to record a conversation about all this, so comments now would be especially welcome.
The past couple of days I’ve pretty much lost the will to type my aimless, verbose rants into the electronic aether as a sense of utter, ball shrivelling despair has set in at the futility of it all. All I feel left with are rolling eyed, sweary, insane rants. And I can’t be arsed to type those fuckers, the lizard aliens who run the world might kidnap me.
For god knows how long, several years at least, I’ve been saying to anyone who’ll listen that if free marketeers/libertarians/&c were to have any hope we would have to be prepared for the coming crash, with our narrative ready and some means to disseminate it. Because if we weren’t the narrative would be a repeat of the Great Depression narrative- to whit: that evil capitalism has failed and only the government can save us with socialism. But of course libertarians have no voice, no influence, no friends in the media or the government, we’re just crazy people raving to barmaids, and so indeed we have no narrative ready and no means to disseminate it, and thus indeed the narrative that is now being disseminated is the evil capitalism/socialism will save us one.
It’s no use us all getting annoyed on our blogs. Nobody cares. Nobody can hear us. And that’s why Gordon’s been so fucking cheerful all week. This is his salvation. Whatever happens, he wins. If there isn’t a Great Depression II, it proves that his strategy of printing money works. If there is a Great Depression II, people will believe it would have been even worse if he hadn’t, just as people still believe that that fucking fascist dictator FDR “saved” America in the 30s.
We’ve fucking lost. I got an email from those tits at the Tory party yesterday all about how “David” was going to do even more intervening than Gordon has done, and how George is going to tell the Bank Of England to limit debt, so presumably some kind of mortgage capping or even more crazed interest rate manipulation. As I read about David and George I kept wondering whether Zippy and Bungle were going to be on the new regulation quangos, and whether Rod, Jane and Freddy were going to sing a fucking song about it.
They’re all on the same hymn sheet, the political class. This is a Failure Of Capitalism, it’s proof that free markets, that trading system we never fucking get but gets blamed for everything wrong in the world, don’t work, and only government can save us, and the circle jerk in the Commons are just arguing, and only a little bit, about who would do the most saving.
Of course they’re fucking things up even worse. They caused the mess, now they present themselves as our saviours. And people will believe them. 99% of the public don’t know fuck all about economics, and of the remainder 99% are some kind of Keynesian. Try starting a discussion in the snug about Austrian Business Cycle Theory and nobody will have a clue. So, they will get away with it again. This is the real “Shock Doctrine”; failures of state corporatism justifying more state corporatism.
We’re fucked. Totally fucked. You won’t be able to say a word in favour of free markets for a generation without getting eggs thrown at you. And it’s Gordon’s salvation. Northern Rock? That looked a bit like his fault. The entire world economy collapsing? Clear proof that not only was that not his fault, the Great Depression II isn’t his fault either. No wonder he’s laughing like a drain.
Not that it matters who is PM anyway. Dave, George and Bungle are just the same; useless statist corporatist global progressives. It doesn’t matter who wins the next election. We’re completely, totally fucked.
Anyway, yes, the correct answer is to do nothing, and if you’re not up to speed on why, I recommend reading something by messrs. Von Mises or Rothbard, or even watching one or two Ron Paul videos. Basically all you can, or should anyway, do when the market is this badly malinvested is to let the malinvestments liquidate. Anything else just turns a drama into a crisis.
Ian,
In times past marching virgins up mountainsides to chuck in the lava made great sense. But we don’t do it anymore. At the best of times I think we’ve made progress. When I dispair, such as you, I wonder if we’ve merely changed the form rather than the function. When the ground rumbles the masses assume the Gods are hungry and someone has to be sacrificed. And if Chief Muckateemuck wants to hang on to power, something must be done. The neat trick, of course, is getting the proverbial virgins to be so agreeable and even pleased at their truncated futures. It’s times like this that I am convinced that superstition is alive and well in the masses.
But, as I like to say from time to time when blogging, what do I know? I am no expert on the banking business…..
I think your opinion at this point, as well as mine, as well as everyones is just as valid as anyone else’s. You see, the Great among us, during salad days, jet around, going to conferences, swill mimosas, pat each other on the back over their manifest brilliance. But when historic destruction happens, like the dissolution of the market, these pundits go ashen and toss about phrases like “out the window” – basically they foul themselves and admit they don’t have a single notion that is anymore valid than yours. It is merely proof that each entrant into the market is a supreme expert as far as their chosen purview extends. And people are only proven right or wrong after the passage of time. The rest is theory and intellectual masturbation (bring on the smiting).
Very good post Brian. As I’ve more than once told basically well-menaing people who have tried to assist me with something or other but gotten in the way, “if you really want to help, don’t help.”
There was an article in the Wall Street Journal the other day (that I have linked here) arguing more or less the same thing and analogising the current credit standstill to a poker game with some bettors at the table being broke but nobody knowing who they are. Nobody will palce a bet until the insolvent players are idnetified and ejected from the game.
oops. That’s “place” a bet and “identified”
And I used preview too.
Ian B said: “We’ve fucking lost.” “We’re fucked. Totally fucked.”
Well, Ian B obviously has and obviously is, in the sense that he’s given up and is left only with impotent swearblogging, in which case, indeed, why bother with the commenting?
Listing all the errors Ian B makes as a would-be persuader of others would take more time than I care to devote to such a boring subject, but one big error he makes is to confuse not having persuaded enough people in power for him to get the exact decisions he wants with not having persuaded anyone at all. We should keep going. Ian B shouldn’t, though. He is just depressing.
As for Brown being happy, I like the comment someone made recently that he is like Neville Chamberlain, fighting a war that he said he had prevented, and while everyone wants him to do well, as soon as they start to suspect that what he is doing isn’t working, they’ll want somebody else and something else. Neville Chamberlain at least had the sense to understand this. Brown is so daft he can’t see it. This Brown bounce will not last.
Well, thanks very much for that Brian. I’m sorry you couldn’t separate the signal from the noise there.
Could you name one “person in power” that has been persuaded, please?
Very good post.
It reminds me of an old film that I saw many years ago about test pilots.
In trying to get the x-series jets to break the sound barrier, many test pilots were killed. The aircraft designs were not quite right, and as they approached the maxim speed there were lots of vibrations which sent the planes into a spin.
It was not until one brave pilot discovered that by doing nothing, stopped fighting it and leaving the controls alone that the plane found its own level, the vibrations stopped, and he could then regain control.
Sometimes nothing means more, and I see this crisis as one where we should be doing nothing and let the market find its own level.
“It was not until one brave pilot discovered that by doing nothing….”
Reminds me of the American Airlines flight 587(Link) that crashed in NY in 2001.
The plane got into the turbulence left by another plane that took off a minute and a half before it. Instead of sitting still the pilot kicked the rudder right and left violently, until it broke off and the plane crashed.
Seems that this is what is happening with the current financial crisis.
“Were I one of the immensely rich and immensely sensible banking people who had (a) seen this crash coming and cashed out at roughly the right time”
Are there any such people ? Somewhere in the back of my brain is an old quote (and I can’t remember the source) to the effect that “a sound banker is not one who sees disaster coming and takes effective action to save his bank. A sound banker is one who, when disaster strikes, goes bankrupt with all the rest”
Only two or three years ago US and UK banks were declaring record profits – built, as we can now see, on highly optimistic accounting assumptions made when valuing assets and risk. A bank head eschewing such practices would have lower profits, a lower share price, and would probably have been sacked. Such a person would probably never have made it that far anyway.
Anyone remember the late Tony “Dr Doom” Dye ?
” stock markets continued to soar, driven by the technology boom. But Dye stuck to his guns, avoiding the high-growth, high-risk internet stocks, maintaining large positions in cash, and consequently ensuring that Phillips & Drew’s funds significantly underperformed their rivals. By 1999, the firm was ranked 66th out of 67 for performance amongst Britain’s institutional fund managers, and was haemorrhaging clients – and in February the following year, just weeks after the FTSE had broken through 7,000 points for the first time, Dye was sacked.
Days later, his prophesy finally came true. Markets collapsed, and settled into a three year slump, which saw more than 50 per cent wiped off the value of global stock markets.”
Laban, I am so glad you posted this. This is the answer to all those who blame the “greedy WS players that should have known better”.
And then is bailed out by the government.
I’d be grateful if somebody, on the podcast or here would address two points:
– The Libertarian Party of the United Kingdom have not issued a Press Release since the biggest issue in the media was David Davis resigning over 42 days.
– That the share price increase might alternatively be explained by oil industry stocks influenced by fears of dilution in the value of the US dollar, which I recall was Rupert Murdoch’s explanation.
Not to blow my own trumpet here, but I did question this curious timing you friend brings up in a comment here last week.
And now I see that Insty has an e-mail up suggesting that Wall Street is currently discounting the likelyhood of a Democratic Congress and an Obama presidency and the gross interference that will bring.
I am not anexpert in banking either but my imperfect understanding of this issue is that it is no longer an issue of badly run banks going under. If it was simply that it would be a no-brainer
However its the fear among banks that any one of them may now go under that is stopping them from lending to anyone including solvent well-run real economy businesses with AAA ratings. If they start going bust then the economy will nose-dive and we will all suffer no matter how prudent and clever we have been.
Iceland’s situation is true challenge to my libertarian instincts. If I was a libertarian I would have allowed these banks to go bust. However then every individual and business would have lost the money deposited with these banks. Mass unemployment and economic disaster results….for me thats a hefty price others have to pay to maintain libertarian principles
On government plans for the banking industry, your discussion later tonight might be more informed by this, though I suspect either one of you Brian, Mr Jennings or Mr Clarke may already be aware of it. Was the ‘credit crisis’ overblown and could it merely be the infant stages of a plan to nationalize the American banking industry? I ask in search of other people whose views may be more informed than my own… such as Perry’s.
I wonder what authorities he is talking about.
When even hardcore leftist politicians here are saying that McCain isn’t a maverick because he went along with Bush on the bailout boondoggle (entailing hereditary bondage on future generations), you can be sure that softcore leftist McCain lost most of the goodwill he earned by choosing Palin. Funny how they don’t mention his going along with Obama.
If there were no other choices on the ballot, I’d have to cast a blank now even if I’d forgiven McCain for all of the other evil he’s wrought or helped work, and even if it would make a difference in MA. Looks like there are some viable alternatives here, not in the sense of winning, but in the sense of expressing long-term goals. The fact that they’ve been shut out of the political microdebate and pseudodebates has prevented them from keeping McCain from dishonesty and dishonor, and thus helped him lose (as seems increasingly, and already quite, likely).
When you’re given a choice between a destructive sleazebag and a less-destructive idiot, it’s time to break out of the voting box.
P.S. — Speaking of unspeakably grand theft, I wonder why the makeup of the fascist Supreme-Court majority that voted to allow rich corporations to bribe local governments into stealing property from people like Kelo hasn’t been brought up. Whose appointees are they, and whose were opposed?
And to make the situation even more bitter, leftist thugs are rightfully laughing like hyenas:
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/31559
[Chavez:] Comrade Bush, how are you?
Now that ought to have been the headline! There seems to be a good pun lurking in the juxtaposition of “glavnaja tema,” (chief topic, i.e. headline) and the quote. And here I was going with the rather unimaginative Bu-shi Bus[h]i-s[h]imas[h]ita (Is-not bevomited).
Quis adjuvatores adjuvabit? (Who will help the helpers?)
I share Ian B’s sense of crushing despair, and also suffer from the same loss of will to post lengthy rants (although I don’t generally think of mine as being “aimless”!). We are witnessing the greatest expansion of federal power at least since the Great Depression, and probably ever. Our government is functionally nationalizing the banking industry, the mortgage industry, and the capital markets. What makes this all so overwhelmingly depressing, and gives me that hollow-gut feeling, is that all of this is being perpetrated by a nominally Republican administration which is on the brink of handing over the reins to the opposition party. If Bill Clinton had tried to do this the conservatives would have been screaming from the rooftops. The liberals are grinning like Cheshire cats because they’ve gotten the Republicans to do what they could never have gotten away with themselves.
This is all being sold as a “temporary expedient” made necessary by the current crisis. But there will be nothing “temporary” about it. Our government never relinquishes power once it has been seized.
As Ian B so eloquently put it, “We’re fucked. Totally fucked.” I’m beginning to understand why people jumped off buildings in 1929.