|
|||||
|
We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people. Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house] Authors
Arts, Tech & CultureCivil LibertiesCommentary
Economics |
21 comments to Trump wins (again)Leave a Reply |
Who Are We?The Samizdata people are a bunch of sinister and heavily armed globalist illuminati who seek to infect the entire world with the values of personal liberty and several property. Amongst our many crimes is a sense of humour and the intermittent use of British spelling. We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe. CategoriesArchivesFeed This PageLink Icons   |
|||
All content on this website (including text, photographs, audio files, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
|||||
I’m not jubilant, just momentarily relieved. We still have the hurdle of certification
and inauguration. I anticipate plenty of mischief.
We know there is an economic reckoning coming. Trump will have his hands full. Hope he will be able to navigate this on behalf of all Americans, not just the rent seekers. My operating assumption is that the Dems would have thrown “middle America” to the wolves, ala “Too Big to Fail”.
I still don’t trust the election system here. I am not counting a state as won for Trump until Trump’s lead > remaining percentage of votes to count.
So, for example, Wisconsin has already been called for Trump. But Trump leads by 0.9% with 98.75% of votes counted; therefore I am remaining skeptical of the late-night cheat. Similarly Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 2.5% with 96.9% of votes counted – not yet enough to absolutely insure against the late-night found ballot trove. I will believe it when all the counting is done.
And the House still hasn’t been won yet. Without the House we will all be treated to an entertaining 4 years of Leftist lawfare against the President; literally daily motions to censure or impeach.
Just to expand on my earlier comment, I consider the following states still undecided:
Arizona (11 EV)
Georgia (16 EV)
Michigan (15 EV)
Nevada (6 EV)
Pennsylvania (19 EV)
Wisconsin (10 EV)
That is a total of 77 electoral votes that are not quite in the bag. All the early celebrating is making me nervous; I feel like the one sensible guy at the beginning of a 70s disaster film.
For example, in Georgia the two counties with 10% of their votes still to count are Fulton Co. and Chatham Co., homes of (respectively) Atlanta and Savannah. If the voting holds the way it has been going in those counties, Harris picks up about 35k votes, or about a quarter of what she needs.
But if she sweeps the remaining 10% of those (Democrat stronghold) counties, as for example if some aggressive ballot-finding were to occur, she could expect to pick up enough votes to just barely win Georgia by a nose.
I am not saying it will happen, I am saying it still can happen. It’s not yet time to celebrate; it’s time to buckle down and run the last mile of the race. Vigilance now, party later.
EDIT: In Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Co. is the county with counting still to do; guess which way that county swings? If Harris sweeps that county PA will be in danger of falling blue.
I will be honest. I am utterly flabbergasted. I did not think there was any way he could win. If you look at it from the beginning of the year, four indictments, two massive civil trials, two assassination attempts, a media that went from highly biased to (in the last few weeks) utterly insane, a massive financial disadvantage. And yet he won. I think what I find most surprising is that I have never met someone like him, who has that level of resilience and courage, that level of “never-quit”. That “never-quit” did not serve him or the country well four years ago, but it sure did this year. I don’t really like Trump as a person, but I am in awe of these sorts of personal qualities.
But the battle has just begun. The dems took a spectacular spanking, but soon enough they will pick up the pieces, and you can be sure that, along with the utterly biased media, they will fight for every inch of ground. Only a man with Trump’s qualities has any chance against that.
And let us not forget that he will have congress on his side this time.
By no means do I think the Trump will rescue the west from its inevitable decline. But he will, I think, put it on pause for a few years.
I share Ferox’s concerns. It seems bizarre to me that the media ‘call’ States for candidates, not the equivalent of the UK’s ‘Returning Officers’ (presumably the State Secretary of State or an authorised officer). Perhaps Harris going silent and saying she’ll come back tomorrow is a way to avoid a concession and wait for the last votes to be found, er counted.
Having said that, the media and World reaction and the BBC even conceding it will make it difficult to rig after the event. Judicial Watch got a ruling in one Circuit that only votes received on election day can be counted.
The sobering reality after every contentious-but-successful election:
The Democrats ought to use their time in the wilderness to conduct a rigorous post mortem of course, coupled with an appropriate purge.
My suggestion would be to find a few fresh faces for their leadership, ditch the wokery and the “progressives” post haste and appeal to the more traditional Democrat middle-of-the-road base.
They have four years to get themselves in order.
Good luck!
@JJM
But that would mean the Democrats rowing back to the centre… and I suspect there are too many left wing activists and other interested parties to allow that to happen. Could the ‘rigorous’ post mortem conclude that the Party wasn’t ‘progressive’ enough?
You can be sure that the Harris campaign is feverishly trying to find 120k more votes in GA (97%), 91 K in PA(97%), 30K in Wi (99%) . 170k (99%) in NC might be tough to pull off. I’m guessing that’s the delay in the concession speech.
For Britain, it should be clear there is no free trading world to jump to outside Europe. Back to the EU then.
@Exasperated
I’m guessing that’s the delay in the concession speech.
My guess is she is too emotional to handle it. That, or perhaps her plan was to eat this “no” for breakfast and see if it fixed things?
One of the big pluses of this win is that we will never have to hear that loathsome woman again, nor the even worse Tim Walz. Let us all share our compassion for BobbyB who is still going to have to deal with that idiotic, lying phoney as his governor.
Since that Biden-Trump debate, I never doubted Trump would win, assuming the democrats couldn’t resort to industrial scale cheating.
The failed assassination attempt made Trump look like having the mandate of heaven. Sure, Harris was dropped in and the dems temporarily recovered but I thought it was all hype and no substance. That brat summer BS fizzled out fast, and no one really cares about Taylor Swift or Kylie B endorsements. Same goes for endorsements by Bush era lunatic ex-
Republicans like the Cheney family. Harris is the shittest major party presidential contender in my lifetime if not ever. And Walz was just as bad….fat, stupid, low energy and low testosterone. Neither would go on Rogan, while Trump did and went on the other two biggest podcasts in America. Trump even did an interview with the wrestler the Undertaker which I thought was marvelous stuff.
Harris campaign was a zero out of ten. Trump I’d give a 8 or 9. Maybe a ten if they do actually win the popular vote.
They aren’t going to find the 30K in WI, since the county with remaining votes is Winnebago, which went to Trump.
But Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada are still in play. I am sure the phone lines at the DNC are staying warm right now.
“Could the ‘rigorous’ post mortem conclude that the Party wasn’t ‘progressive’ enough?”
My sense is that would probably mean the Democrats could be out of office for some time.
Depends. Does “drunk” count as an emotion?
Only if Chardonnay counts as a wine.
(How can you trust a pol who drinks Chardonnay by the liter?)
This is an excellent explainer for those who don’t understand how Trump won – and sort of a liberal Western anti-woke manifesto. Long but worth it, and excerptable:
https://jeffgoldstein.substack.com/p/i-am-not-voting-for-donald-trump
On the subject of finding votes in Wisconsin…being every bit as worried about “the steal” as others, I was watching several of the county results sites during the night, comparing with the 2016 and 2020 final results as things progressed. Though there was some variation as you’d expect, there was a picture building up almost everywhere in the state of Trump outperforming 2020 by a few percent. Then we get to Milwaukee county.
In 2020, in round numbers, Biden won the county 70/29, with 317K votes to Trump’s 134K.
Last night, the numbers progressed upward to Harris on 220K, Trump on 110K, 66/33 split. Trump outperforming 2020 but a few percent, exactly like the rest of the state.
Then everything stopped for more than 3 hours. No change whatsoever in the dead of night. But the next time the site updated, new numbers:
Harris 310K, Trump 130K, and Trump’s back on his 2020 figure of 29%.
Which, for those of you keeping track, means that the precincts whose votes were added after everyone was in bed, went for Harris 90K votes to 20K, or 81/19, thus having Harris in those areas outperforming the entire rest of that already-very-Dem county by 15%. Perhaps such a thing is valid, but I would love to see someone put on the spot and have to explain that…
I have got used to the brash New York property developer.
Back in 2016 I was working AGAINST Donald J. Trump – as a small (very small) part of the Ted Cruz on-line campaign.
But Donald J. Trump did NOT prove to be the Democrat in disguise that people like me said he was – on the contrary he pushed a conservative agenda in office.
Not a perfect conservative agenda certainly – but vastly better than either President Bush, and vastly better than Cameron, May, Johnson and Sunak here (Liz Truss sincerely tried to be pro liberty – but was betrayed).
I only wish that President Trump had better times in which to be President – he inherits an American that is both economically and CULTURALLY undermined, times are going to be very bad – and he may, unjustly, get the blame for the crash of 2025.
But I wish to apologise again for how badly I misjudged Donald J. Trump in 2016.
Few people could have stood up to the savage attacks that he has been subjected to for so many years – I certainly could NOT.
God protect you President Trump – in this world and the next.
I don’t think they’ve got a pile of votes still to count, I think they have counted all they have and the rest are “expected” votes. It’s the twelve million biden votes which have mysteriously evaporated through improved oversight.