We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.
Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]
|
So how deeply held are predictions of doom if Trump wins? How to tell if the people in Europe making predictions of doom if Trump wins actually believe what they have been saying:
Europeans defence expenditures go to 4%+ (i.e. Polish levels) within the next few months.
Otherwise it’s just so much verbal flatulence.
If Trump does indeed abandon Ukraine and tries to force a de facto surrender of occupied territories on them, and Europe still does not rapidly ramp up defence expenditure, then maybe Trump and the USA was never the problem.
|
Who Are We? The Samizdata people are a bunch of sinister and heavily armed globalist illuminati who seek to infect the entire world with the values of personal liberty and several property. Amongst our many crimes is a sense of humour and the intermittent use of British spelling.
We are also a varied group made up of social individualists, classical liberals, whigs, libertarians, extropians, futurists, ‘Porcupines’, Karl Popper fetishists, recovering neo-conservatives, crazed Ayn Rand worshipers, over-caffeinated Virginia Postrel devotees, witty Frédéric Bastiat wannabes, cypherpunks, minarchists, kritarchists and wild-eyed anarcho-capitalists from Britain, North America, Australia and Europe.
|
Either way the international economy is going to collapse – but under President Trump there will HOPEFULLY not be a move to world “governance” (Agenda 2030 and all that) – Harris/Walz would have used the economic collapse as an excuse for international tyranny.
As for the Ukraine war – well the Russians say they have sorted out the problems with the AK12 rifle, which tended to fall apart in battlefield conditions in 2022 (please remember that the AK12 was personally approved by Mr Putin – because he wanted “a rifle than can do everything” – there is no such thing), and that their soldiers are no longer an untrained mob attacking in large groups, to be shot down by the Ukrainians and others. Whether the Russian claims are true or false will be decided on the battlefield.
The battle plan was also the product of Mr Putin – it was his idea to try and take key places by airborne troops (who were sent in to certain death – massively outnumbered and outgunned) and to send the regular army down long (very long) narrow roads hoping to link up with the airborne troops before they were slaughtered – I have compared this plan to Operation Market Garden shown in the film “A Bridge Too Far” – but it was actually worse than that, as the distances were much greater and the Russian forces much less trained.
Mr Putin sent an utterly unprepared military to war in February 2022 – on the false assumption that Ukraine’s military was as weak as it had been in 2014. The Russian military was the same in 2022 as it had been in 2014 – but the Ukrainian military, partly due to training and arms provided under President Trump from 2017 to 2021, was vastly superior to what it had been in 2014.
Russia gains nothing from this war – it did not need extra farm land and natural resources, it already had vast amounts of both. And Mr Putin has cost both Ukraine and Russia vast numbers of people – for no good reason.
So even if Russia wins the war (as Russia most likely will – it has been on the advance for months now) – Mr Putin still deserves punishment – a bullet in the back of the head would be traditional. And a very harsh judgement from history.
At his age I suspect that Mr Putin is more concerned about the judgment of history than he is with his own life (which he knows will soon come to an end anyway) – and he will go down in history as someone who cost Russia (and Ukraine) vast numbers of human lives – for-no-good-reason.
As for the war now (indeed for quite some time now) – it is back to old (very old) Russian tactics – no more of the fancy ideas of Mr Putin.
Old tactics of pound with lots of artillery – lots and lots of artillery, and outflank enemy strong points to cut off their supply lines.
President Trump does not return to office till January 20th 2025.
The war in Ukraine should be over before then – so it will not be up to President Trump.
One small step for the United States, one giant shit sandwich for the Dems, the Federal Bureaucracy, the US media, the BBC, ITV, our Foreign Secretary and PM.
I have noticed that the penny is starting to drop for Europeans on Twitter. Here is an example: https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1854066949116084689
Trump and the USA was never the problem.
So how do you say “Abraham Accords” in Ukrainian?
“[Russia] has been on the advance for months now”
Russia has been “on the advance” since 24 February 2022, with less than overwhelming success.
But – heck, who knows? – maybe those stalwart chaps of the Korean People’s Army expeditionary force will seal the deal?
JJM
No – Russia was losing ground about a year ago. There was a major Ukrainian offensive last year, which had quite a lot of success – and there was also a minor Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region a few months ago, although it failed to take the Kursk nuclear power station (presumably the Ukrainian objective – although there is also a nuclear weapons store near by, but the nuclear weapons would have been moved if there was any real threat to them).
And no – Korean troops are not important.
In recent months the Russian army has been gradually defeating the Ukrainians – NOT by following Mr Putin’s tactics (which were a total failure – indeed a farce), but by old fashioned Russian tactics of the large scale use of artillery (Russians have loved artillery for centuries) and out flanking attacks cutting the supply routes to Ukrainian strong points – gradually making those strong points untenable.
Whether Russia will win the war remains to be seen – but I insist that the war was both immoral (to attack Ukraine was a wicked thing to do) and pointless – as Ukraine has nothing that Russia does not already have (indeed has in vast amounts).
The war has been Mr Putin’s vanity project – and it has got vast numbers of people killed, for a victory that will be of no real value to the Russian people.