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Brexit: what happens now?
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I put this on Tim Worstall’s already–
“Well the FFCs shite BRINO is done.
The next 2 days cockrot capers can’t overrule No Deal exit on the 29th. Unless the Fish Faced Cunt helps them. Which from Breitbart’s report she has already said she intends to.
Anybody out their got any ideas as to how she/they can be spoked? Mr Galt? Anybody?
My thought is for ERG/DUP to threaten to bring her down unless she just takes No Deal sitting there. The downside is that the bitch has zero left to lose. The Tory Party has it all to lose. And despite Jizz’s bullshit so do ZaNu. Boles is hinting the same from opposite angle –if she doesn’t help them wreck/betray then its a GE. The remainiacs know however that is a sure route to the dole queue for most of them Labour and Tory alike. That is a trip they won’t want to take–they are bluffing.”
The FFC has almost triumphed. Without prompting, she openly referred to extending Article 50 and floated a second referendum to the House of Commons after her ‘deal’ was rejected.
She will vote against a WTO departure, she will ‘move’ exit date by Statuory Instrument as a prelude to the repeal of the Withdrawal Act by a House of Commons and House of Lords who loath the prospect of independence.
It’s as if George Washington, with victory in his grasp, had raised an army of (future) ‘Canadians’ to give King George what he needed to defeat the rebels.
Elections to the European Parliament are on 23–26 May 2019. If we have not left the EU by that time, we get to send 73 people to Strasbourg and Brussels to make life interesting for them. It is rumoured that the EUrocrats already feel concern that some of those the continentals will send there may not be wholly with the programme, never mind some of those we might send there to augment their numbers.
Such a vote would be one in which there is no “but you mustn’t risk letting Corbyn in” (or vice-versa, for those who feel that way) to obscure a frank expression of popular opinion to our leaders, as well as the eurocrats
I do not know what will happen next but I do think the closeness of the EU elections is not a small issue for our enemies.
Article 50 was invoked and voted for by Parliament with a huge majority. How could it be ‘stopped’?
Call me naive, but I still do not see how Hard Brexit can be avoided, except by the suicidal insanity of the Brexit party … and i admit that’s a possibility.
Absolutely nothing has changed. The UK leaves in 18 days unless there’s an alternative that passes Parliament (and likely also the unanimous approval of the EU membership), and no such deal is plausible. We’re on the road to the hardest of Brexits. Which, for any bumps in the road there might be, will get the UK reliably out, and will be interesting to watch.
Mr Ed–She is a remainiac and EU agent and always has been. Tomorrows bullshit vote means nothing in itself–has no effect on departure date. Extn is the danger–that must be stopped. If needs be she must fall.
DUP/ERG voted against. DUP for obvious reasons but the ERG could have taken her deal –and said they would if Brexit otherwise not happening. I suspect there must be a plan there somewhere. And if extn is veto’d?? Can’t count on that of course–but not over yet.
Many, if not most, politicians despise ordinary voters. That is nothing compared to my attitude to politicians.
I can accept policy differences but I cannot accept the deceit of those who said they were going to ‘respect’ the result of the referendumm and are now working to overturn it.
I do not know what what is going to happen.
I am 100% certain that if the Conservatives go into a General Election with May as Leader they will suffer a huge defeat.
I am 80%-90% sure that if the had a Leaver as Leader and campaigned for a ‘No Deal’ because that’s what the 2016 referendum implied they would win a significant majority.
But then we would be faced with duplicitous scum who campaigned on a policy to win and then tried to reverse it after winning?
I am 70% – 80% confident that a referendum with ‘No Deal’ has an option would see ‘No Deal’ getting the highest number of votes. But those on the Remain side say that Remain should be on a referendum paper and that ‘No Deal’ shouldn’t be on. And the collaborators on the BBC never press them on this.
I see May’s posturing on extension of article 50 period and a second referendum as little more than that. She’s knows that there is nothing more that the EU can give without undermining their own precarious position, so expect a flurry of “shuttle diplomacy” between here and Brussels and terms for A50 extension which are blackmail / extortion and whose acceptance would amount to capitulation to an enemy.
Treason May will then put her BRINO deal back to the house for yet a 3rd and final attempt before March 29th.
Given that we’re now at 16 days, 22 hours 28 minutes until BRExit, I’m guessing that will be her last gasp before the otherwise inevitable Hard BRExit / exit to WTO Terms.
There are other possibilities, obviously, but they would require MP’s to literally piss in the face of the electorate in a way that is pretty hard for them to ignore.
Seems to me that the one thing about Mrs May that we know for sure is that her word is worthless. It’s not a question of remembering her string of broken promises, it’s more a question of wracking the brain for a promise she’s kept.
As Mr Ecks’ rather rudely worded comment points out, if she actually wanted to deliver Brexit on 29 March, there’s absolutely nothing – short of assassination – that anyone could do to stop her. Absent extraordinary stuff from Bercow, no legislation could pass by 29 March without her agreement. Indeed even if it did pass, she could advise that the Royal Assent be declined. Or she could advise the sovereign to prorogue Parliament. She could lose a vote of confidence tomorrow morning, but there’d be no new PM by 29 March. If her Cabinet rebels, she can sack ’em. If she felt it was important to deliver on her promise to achieve Brexit, it’s totally within her power. If it doesn’t happen, it’s because she doesn’t want it to.
So I have no difficulty in imagining that she’ll be quite content to cancel Brexit. But in the immediate future, I’m expecting her to take another breathtaking dive in the “negotiations” over an Article 50 extension. She’ll concede some stuff so gobsmacking that no one will successfully predict it in advance.
Breathtaking levels of incompetence… Yup. That would be pretty much par for the course with Treason May.
I’m still not totally convinced that she would shit the bed and cancel BRExit though. Then again, I see her as more clueless and vindictive than anything else.
Not much more that you and I can do. I doubt that handing out rolls of piano wire and instructions on basic executions around Westminster and Whitehall would go down too well at the moment.
We’ll see…
Lee Moore on
March 13, 2019 at 1:12 am Wrote
Seems to me that the one thing about Mrs May that we know for sure is that her word is worthless. It’s not a question of remembering her string of broken promises, it’s more a question of wracking the brain for a promise she’s kept. That right there is what we HAVE to keep in the forefront of our minds as this farrago unwinds towards the March 29th deadline.
You only serve terms that amount to capitulation upon an enemy, which is what the EU clearly and categorically sees the UK as.
Good. No Deal BRExit it is then. Let’s get on with it…
Let me be clear as to what I see as Mrs May’s plan.
1. Today the House of Commons (not ‘Parliament’) votes on a free vote about ‘No Deal’, this will be won as the payroll vote of MPs in government can safely vote against their Party policy.
2. Thursday a vote on an extension of Article 50 is held, again to be won by the Remainers. ‘Pilate’ May washes her hands of the matter.
3. The relevant Minister – the ‘Brexit Secretary’ puts forward a Statutory Instrument for the Houses of Commons and Lords to approve by resolution, to move ‘exit day’ from 29th Matrch 2019 (23:00 GMT) to a date in May just before the cut-off for the European Parliament elections. This power is enshrined in the 2018 Act.
4. With departure postponed, Mrs May brings in legislation for another referendum with three options, ‘No Deal’, ‘Deal approved by House of Commons’ or ‘Remain’, splitting the Leave vote. And cancelling Article 50 with the backing of the minority as the first past the post wins this one.
Only a vote of no-confidence, repeated in 14 days, and triggering a General Election could stop the show, or enough Conservative MPs resigning the Whip in protest to make Mrs May’s position untenable. Or she could be impeached and removed as PM that way.
Mr Ed,
What “deal” would that be or would it be a vote essentially for “trust us to get a good one”? Given the current farce, that might appeal to believers, but I’m not sure they’re as numerous as the remainiacs believe among the general population these days.
And surely it would not be remain but rejoin under far more onerous conditions.
Say what you want about the 2016 referendum, but at least the choice was crystal clear. A three way referendum with vague options for what everybody understands is a clear binary choice? Sounds like pissing in the face of the electorate to me.
Mr Ed
Not disagreeing that this might be her plan, but as I understand it the EU has to agree with an extension, which enough member countries may not.
I am hoping that through a combination of ineptitude and ill-will on the part of the EU and “the government” we accidentally end up with the best possible result, out on the 30th on WTO terms.
Mark,
I would think it a ‘trust us’ deal, or perhaps they would have a 2-way between a BRINO deal and Remain.
artwest,
Yes, the EU has to agree, as do all member states. We may see just how ‘eurosceptic’ Italy, Poland and Hungary etc. really are. The European Council is what has to agree an extension of the Article 50 period, the membership is at Art. 15 (2) of the Lisbon Treaty.
Funnily enough, the EU is directed to reach an agreement with the UK under Article 50 (2), but the final withdrawal agreement only requires a qualified majority of States, not unanimity, along with the EU Parliament’s approval, so it may be easier to get a withdrawal agreement than an extension.
That “etc.” includes an awful number of other member states; and 18 days seems an awfully short time for all governments to reach a decision. (If every Parliament has to vote, then it’s even worse.)
The real reason why i expect at least one EU-skeptic government to reject an extension, of course, is that they want to keep their options open: they want to be able to threaten leaving the EU in the future.
Is it possible that the EU itself will eject the UK? Quite a few countries would benefit if the UK were outside looking in. France, in particular, might get the financial centers in London transferred to Paris.
Someone in the French Parliament has floated the idea of merging the French and German parliaments.
The traitors in Westminster cannot arrange a delay all by themselves: they have to get the remaining EU 27 to agree unanimously. That ain’t gonna happen.
However, they can revoke Article 50 unilaterally; the EU court agreed this last year (after an amazingly short period of cogitation…).
just sayin’
May could be forced to “QUIT”? By whom?
Former LibDem leader David Steel clearly feels “today is a good day to bury bad news” – in his case, the news that he knew about Cyril Smith’s paedophilia for 40 years, which is 10 years longer than when he recommended him for a knighthood and 39 years longer than the last time he described it as “scurrilous hearsay”.
On the one hand, the Labour aide who decided that the 11th of September 2001 was the perfect day to bury some embarrassing expenses information was exploiting thousands of deaths, not just some high-profile votes. On the other hand, the news Steele is trying to bury is a lot nastier.
Meanwhile, given that everyone said today’s vote was sure to be lost, I do not know whether 312 to 308 is bad or, relatively speaking, not as bad as expected.
Does “when Hell freezes over” have a specific calendar date or can otherwise be defined?
On Guido an article quotes some tinfoil hat wearing remainer saying that Aaron Banks went to Italy to ask Salvini to veto an extension. Sounds unlikely but I hope it’s true.
A secondary benefit of the UK leaving the EU is that the balance of power will shift towards Italy and the Eastern European countries. The UK is definitely in the virtue signalling ‘wet’ camp when it comes to matters such as immigration, albeit it is viewed as awkward on other matters. “If you strike me down I will be more powerful than ever before”, to misquote Star Wars.
Quite right; except that, in addition to Italy and “Eastern Europe” (now known as: Central Europe), you should have mentioned Austria, Denmark, and Finland.
Mr Kilmartin–was that the result because nobody seems sure? Was not Spelman’s ordure passed by 30 or 40 votes? Fawkes has zero up on site –BB gives the Spelman figure. WTF voted for what? Her bullshit statement sounds like she is ready with all the Treason she wanted but if your figures are accurate that is another matter.
“Does “when Hell freezes over” have a specific calendar date or can otherwise be defined?”
According to Dante’s ‘Inferno’, the Ninth Circle of hell is already frozen over. It is (appropriately) where the traitors are condemned to suffer. The devil himself is embedded up to his chest in centre of the frozen lake.
—
Other points of interest – I note that the IRA says it sent five little messages to Parliament, how does the collective wisdom gathered here think Parliament will interpret the message and respond to it? And I note that the government proposal is that in the interim most, but not all tariffs will drop to zero. Some to Europe are going up, most of those to the rest of the world are going down. They say it’s temporary, until they can make more permanent arrangements. Does anyone else think that if the result isn’t an obvious disaster, they might leave it that way? Or do you think the idea is to make *sure* it’s an obvious disaster, to discredit the free trade argument?
On reflection, after discovering the true meaning of “hopping mad” earlier this evening, I’m actually still quite hopeful. The 29th is still on the statute books, and it’s not going to be easy to alter it. Possible, yes, but not easy. The EU and all of its 27 states have to grant an extension, and there’s every reason to think that at least one of them won’t.
“However, they can revoke Article 50 unilaterally; the EU court agreed this last year (after an amazingly short period of cogitation…).”
True, but could they get the numbers in Parliament to do so? The Withdrawal Act precludes the government from acting unilaterally. Phil B cites the relevant clauses above. The date can only be changed by regulation if there’s another date to change it to. Anything else would require an amending Act to pass through Parliament.
After tonight’s vote I’m not as confident as I used to be that they couldn’t do just that, but it would be the most brazen splap in the faces of the 17.4 million yet. It was our decision, remember? The government would carry out what we decided…
It depends. If needed the DUP/ERG can bring the cunt and her shower down in a GE. Which means No Deal followed by a mega-kicking for Labour and Tory alike. Why not? If JRM and the rest don’t act to save Brexit and meekly follow her betrayal plan then what use are they? ALL Tories will then be down the shitter. No more safe seats anywhere for treason -supporters.
And frankly I think the time for direct action is approaching even without May’s treason. People should now be thinking of absolutely EVERY possible means of fighting back. Tax strikes/TV licence strikes/speed cam smashing/fitting filter plates on number plates so the cunts can’t track your car with ANPR cameras any more/gen camera smashing—that is a tiny beginning. These House of Traitors are OUR ENEMIES. They serve the Globo elite and their plans are–as Macron shows– to flop us ordinary folk lower than whaleshit. Doing nothing is no longer an option.
People can buy and sell the following on PredictIt:
“At or before 11:59:59 p.m. March 29, 2019 London time, the treaties of the European Union shall no longer apply to the United Kingdom.”
Based on this (fairly liquid) market there appears to be a 19% chance that will happen.
Seems about right to me.
I doubt the UK will no longer be effectively (if not technically) governed by EU law anytime soon (or perhaps even far)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4672/Will-the-United-Kingdom-officially-exit-the-European-Union-by-March-29
Mr Ecks: These House of Traitors are OUR ENEMIES.
To an outside observer, that is exactly the point the separatists have ignored in their dreams about post-Brexit sunlit uplands of freedom.
The same spineless incompetent Political Class which dragged the Brits into the EU and now is making such a dog’s breakfast of getting out will still be in charge after separation. That leopard will not change its spots. Is there any reason to expect that the House of Traitors and their running dogs in the bureaucracy will suddenly be transformed into dynamic creative leaders capable of quickly negotiating a raft of deals with a wide variety countries around the world — all of which are primarily looking after their own interests, not trying to help the old UK?
The UK’s main problem has always been home-grown, centered in the Palace of Westminster. If Brexit is going to be a success, Brexiteers need to start thinking about how they are going to change that Heart of Darkness.
Is this where the British carve guns out of wood, and march on Parliament?
Gavin L–I’ve said numerous times that Brexit is only the beginning. I also point out that we can’t just give up and stop now.
The Globo trash aren’t giving up on THEIR plans. Which means misery and death for us and our progeny.
That is our future unless we change it.
The below is apt. He talks bollocks about the Free Market but he likely confuses economic freedom with the bullshit that is called the “free market” in this socialistic shithole in which we live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9ohrBhhN4k&t=11s
One of the virtues of Brexit is precisely the pressure it exerts on our political system. As, in the US, the deep state and the media are dangerous but in fighting Trump they also expose and undermine themselves, so, here, the compromised heart of our establishment is dangerous but fighting Brexit is dangerous to it, in ways that ordinary party-politics rarely match.
What this process has shown is that Mrs May makes Harold Wilson seem honest, Jim Callaghan in touch, Margaret Thatcher accommodating, John Major inspiring, Tony Blair sincere, Gordon Brown lovable, David Cameron personable and Jeremy Corbyn patriotic.
One side benefit of the referendum was that, due to the political climate at the time no politician with a sense of self-preservation was pushing to join Germany in their idiotic invitation to refugees everywhere.
So much winning.
The “deal” of Mrs May continues the rule of the European Union over this land – over the British people.
Everything that Mrs May (and the Daily Mail – the Daily FAIL) has said about carrying out the vote for independence of 2016 has been and is a LIE.
It is not some shade of grey thing – Mrs May and her supporters in the press (such as the Daily Mail) are LYING.
As for “not leaving at all” – that would, essentially, be the same thing as Mrs May’s “deal” accept that a few “MEPs” (Members of the European Parliament) would keep their jobs.
This is a very “interesting” situation – is the United Kingdom a democracy (small “d” – I mean do the people have any say in basic matters), or a DISGUISED DICTATORSHIP – a “guided democracy” (i.e. not a democracy at all) under the control of an “educated” elite.
Well we will know soon enough.
Lastly – yet again I apologise to those people I mocked in 2016 for suggesting that Britain was a disguised dictatorship and that establishment elite (Mrs May and co) being rotten-to-the-core, would never allow independence. You may well have been CORRECT and I (with my faith in the British political system) may have been TOTALLY WRONG.
Paul Marks–But now we see them clearly for what they are. That is a priceless boon.
The only good thing is that some people have clearly IMPROVED through this time-of-trial.
Watching a grim and serious Boris Johnson a couple of days ago it was hard to recognise the figure-of-fun of a couple of years ago, the fire of political combat has forged a different man.
I can also remember when such men as Steve Baker, Owen Paterson and Dominic Raab were fairly ordinary politicians – desperate to be liked. Now they clearly do-not-give-a-tinkers-curse for what people say of them – for they have found a cause they believe in and are willing to sacrifice for.
“But is a clear MINORITY of politicians Paul”.
I do not deny that – indeed I accept that. But better that some people have found-their-souls via the forge of conflict – than that none at all such people exist.
Agreed Mr Ecks – the international establishment stands revealed, in all its utter EVIL.
Re Mr Ecks
“If needed the DUP/ERG can bring the c**t and her shower down in a GE. Which means No Deal followed by a mega-kicking for Labour and Tory alike. ”
The prospect of which makes me feel like a giddy teenage girl.
It’s, you know, like, they soooo *deserve* it!
Only problem: where will we find any candidates that anyone trusts?
Which reminds me (candidates not trusted) …
Amid the continuous stream of FUD I’ve seen filling the TV screens night after night after night, the *only* clarity I’ve seen displayed recently was on Google Box. Where the usual participants cover the whole spectrum from wet-left to alt-right with every kind of EU-opinion in between. When Tony Bliar made a Pro-EU appearance, it was a jolt to witness the almost-unanimous visceral and instinctive gut reactions and cries of *bullshit*.
It only hurts our good cause when we exaggerate, Mr Ed – no need to over-egg the pudding. 🙂
I’m less confident about the establishment parties getting a kicking come the next election. In the wake of the expenses scandal I was shocked to see how many of the worst offenders were returned to office. My thought was, what would these people have to do not to have a great mass of sheep voting for them? I would like to think that we now have the answer but I’m not particularly hopeful.
“So what if the Referendum passed. There won’t be any Brexit.”-
Me on these pages, midnight, June 23, 2016.
I wish I had been wrong. This is a sad day for our mother country.
Either you foresaw Gove’s destruction of the Brexit campaign’s alternative-leader project (and, which would seem even harder to explain, thought it was remoaner-contrived?) and/or thought that, had Boris or Leadsom got the vote to the Tory party members, they would have chosen May – or else it seems to me that 23rd June was a precipitate time to make that prediction.
The failure to complete the Brexit campaign by realising the alternative leadership project has always been a weakness, but I am baffled how anyone could have (validly) predicted it (because baffled how the remoaners could have contrived Gove’s behaviour). I am less incredulous, but still puzzled, how it could seem really probable to reach the current state without it.
Of course, predicting the remoaners would fight, and fight dirty, was always a safe bet.
The remoaners have not let things reach the current state because they are in confident, far-sighted control. We’re in a fight. I see neither advantage nor necessity in assuming we’re in a PoW camp.
Mr Ed (March 14, 2019 at 12:20 pm) made me reflect that perhaps Theresa May is the worst British leader since December 1688.
There’s a fair few local elections coming up in May as well as some European stuff. So UKIP and Leave means Leave better have a decent number of candidates ready to fight them.
It might help if Farage and Batten got together and sorted out a plan whereby they don’t fight each other’s parties too often. So if the EU let us delay ’til June, the traitors might have a sense of what the country feels about their treason.
(Most UK commenters on this blog know this, but for any others still following this long comment thread 🙂 ), the against and for Brexit-delay votes for the Tories were 187 against delay versus 111 for (with 11 abstaining). The majority against delaying our exit was not enough to overcome Labour’s support for it but when the majority of the Tory parliamentary party vote for no more delay to our (no deal) exit, despite May herself voting for delaying it, then Tory policy is ripe for change.
Having a second referendum was defeated 333 to 84. In today’s environment, nothing is certain just because a house vote says so, but I agree with Rees-Mogg that the standard EU/remoaner tactic of holding a second referendum so we can “get it right this time” seems dead in the water for now.
Mr. Kilmartin- I’m an American, and not up on British politics or procedures. My prediction was based only on my observation that the people who had to execute Brexit did not want to. And in a great big way. So given human and politician nature, they would defy the will of the people.
As I said that night, the referendum was like coming home and telling your spouse,
“I want a divorce. You go file the papers.”
That divorce may never get done.