What developments favourable to liberty will happen during 2011?
… and a happy new year to all.
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The contiuned decline of the “mainstream” media – especially in the United States.
I would love to say that we will see the end of a big name (such as the vile Time magazine – Joe Klein and his pals), but I do not think that will happen. But what will happen is their continued decline – in spite of all their tricks.
Contrary to what a lot of people think, the MSM is still important – but with the contiuned decline (fewer and fewer people buying the leftist [by “leftist” I mean collectivist anti private property type person] controlled newspapers and magazines – fewer and fewer people watching the leftist controlled television networks [ABC, CBS, NBC and PBS] news shows) so their influence wanes.
They presently have influence greater their ciruclation and ratings warrent (because the days when they dominated life were not so long ago) – but THEY ARE ON THE WAY DOWN.
This will have a direct effect on future elections – and (whether British people like it or not) whether Western civilization stands or falls depends on whether the United States stands or falls.
Also I think the “education system” (schools and universities) will continue to suffer from a, quite justified, decline in respect. The respect that “learned” person (judged learned because of their academic qualifications and position) has already greatly declined. And this is a good thing – for the left control education (most universities, most teacher training and so on) so a decline in respect for the doctrines taught by the education system (and the people who do the teaching) is a decline for the left.
Oddly enough the left have actually helped with this process – for years (indeed decades) they have attacked respect for both schools and universities. Saying that people should not be “deferential”, and denoucing the “pretense of a special position of knowledge” by teachers and university lecturers.
In their arrogance the left assumed that spreading attitudes of contempt for formal learning and for insitutions of learning would only hurt conservative teachers and lecturers (forgetting that they, the left, have long controlled a vast majority of key positions in education – and in such a way that it is obvious to the public that the left are in control), but now, to their horror, the left are finding that contempt and disregard applies to leftist teachers and lecturers also.
The left are hoisted on their own petard – and may they rot upon it. If formal education is just “ideolgical propaganda” then why should the taxpayers be forced to pay vast sume of money to the system? And if there is “no such thing as objective truth” does this not apply to what lefty teacher (and lefty college lecturer) say to?
This is no small development. Control of education is the heart of the power of the left (of the collectivists) – such things as their control of the “mainstream” media are an outgrowth of this control of education.
The decline of the key cultural insitutions the left have worked so hard to control, cuts the ground from under their feet.
It may be too late for Civilization (I do not pretend that it is likely to be saved) – but the left are “going down” (and they have helped destroy themselves).
2011 will see these trends continue.
People tend to predict “more of the same”. Predicting the future is difficult. For example – nobody predicted the fall of the Berlin wall.
Let me take a gamble: I predict that at least one of the three most vile regimes in the world will fall. I mean Iran, Cuba and North Korea. That would be a real favorable development. And, if it will not happen in 2011, it will happen maybe in 12, 13, or 14, so I will be able to claim that the prediction was correct, even if the timing not perfect.
In Cuba and North Korea it all depends on biology – when the current rulers die. You can rely on biology.
I wish I could say what I know is coming this year.
Big fun, though.
The recent findings about brain shapes and beliefs give us the ultimate excuse- none of us can help it!
This will liberate us from guilt about what we do- our brains made us do it!
This also frees us from choices about what to do- we can’t convert our opponents, so we’ll have to kill them.
I especially like your last point, Nuke.
Global warming theory will continue its slow fall into disrepute and will one day have been forgotten. Politicians walk away unscathed.
The troubles of the EU will continue. The Europhiles will have a much harder time claiming that we benefit from our EU membership.
Also agree with Paul’s comments on education and the media. No matter how much money is thrown at the BBC its slide into irrelevance will continue.
It’s so hard to predict the future because it’s so hard to understand the present. There are simply too many economic, social and political trends interacting at once for any human being to understand, and too many things we don’t know.
I am beginning to suspect that the only way to really understand what’s happening in the world today is to live long enough to read about it as history.
the vote on AV – either this will be defeated and the coalition will collapse, or this will be passed, this will cause the collapse of the tory wing of the social democratic state, which allied to the upcoming destruction of the lib dens will see a realignment of and one or more libertarian/liberal groups will form from these.
As gravy this will also lead to the destruction of the Labour party with the socialist and the social democrats splitting
At least one court in the US will be asked to rule on some aspect of what’s popularly joked-about as the “terrorism exception to the Fourth Amendment.”
The ruling will amount to “Hey, wait a minute…no.”
And what Paul said. Either Slime, TASS-on-the-Hudson, or Newspeak will not be here for the 2012 general election.
The Republican party will waffle on the issues that got them elected, setting the stage for the rise of the Tea Party and sending the Republicans the way of the Whigs.
Could make for a messy, but entertaining squabble in the House the first 6 months of this year.
Wow, more optimism here than I expected. Unfortunately, I don’t share it. There may be a few small bright spots here and there, but I see the inexorable decline into socialist tyranny continuing largely unabated. The ratchet continues to click.
The fiscal insolvency of California and other states dominated by big government types will be a major flash point for Washington and a Repub controlled House.
I think that Obama and his statist fans will attract/blackmail enough Repubs to support some form of help which will not solve anything but shatter the little hope many had for the Repubs to begin with.
In other words, more decline for the surviving elements of this Republic on the fiscal and trust fronts at the very least.
Self preservation by the real controllers of the world will continue to dominate events.
Thus “quantative easing” will continue and cash will become increasingly valueless.
Bureaucracies and centralised government, such as the EU and UN and developments there from, will spread as will their influence.
Detailed monitoring of your personal life will become extremely, if not completely, invasive, based on the capacity to obtain and process information, which will grow exponentially.
Machine intelligence will overtake human intelligence. I have seen the date for this put at around 2035 but that is probably way too far into the future.
Total control and conformity will become an accepted norm.
Unfortunately humankind’s wisdom does not, and will not, keep pace with it’s ability and the result of that will be devastating.
Apologies. I went beyond 2011.
For 2011?
A nuclear armed Middle East and South America, with consequent power plays, unless current trends are radically altered.
On an optimistic note, I’d like to second what Paul Marks wrote about the decline of the MSM. Also, the further descrediting of AGW alarmism and other forms of alarmism; also, the growing realisation that we have a higher education “bubble” which is now causing a lot of damage.
Beyond that, not much in the political/media world. Technology will provide further marvels, some of which may be empowering.
2011 may be a worrying year if you are investing in China. I see a lot of bubble issues there.
Expect some good news from Africa and bits of Latin America.
Maybe at least one nation leaves the euro.
Why?
I like the Paul Marks view (1st comment.)
But I am sad that Civilisation, which is to say: Western liberal civilisation, may go down in the process. This is a tragic loss, may take thousands of years to restore, and indeed may never be replaced: we cannot tell what bolides the universe may bring.
We shall just have to kill and eat the leftists, having already killed, roasted and eaten their children while making them watch, at knifepoint. There will be no other meat by them since they have already suborned the vegans and warrior-vegetarians to the destruction of Man’s cattle-herds and sheep-herds (and in Africa, goats). They will have torched the battery-chicken factories a long time before (to hell with the miserable, incinerated chickens: it’s the people that they hate…) They may learn a little about what it is to be human, before they are themselves barbecued, and die in the flames.
Dante’s Hell is not good enough for the bastards. You will see that I do not view lefties quite as positively as people like Sean Gabb do.
Which bits of Latin America, Johnathan P? I’m mystified.
If you’re talking about Venezuela, there will be a debacle in 2012, but it’ll be a long while before anything like good news emerges. The opposition, there as here in Ecuador, is fragmented to the point of borderline nonexistent. Chavez is despised, but he’s also, like all good tyrants, feared, and no alternatives are able to make their voices heard. He’s now breathing down the necks of Internet service providers and outlawing “foreign” organisations in order to make quite sure of that. Other leftist heads of state are watching with interest and thinly disguised envy: yes, it IS possible to preside over economic chaos and spiralling crime and still gerrymander yourself another term in office (and another, and…)! Another authoritarian leftist has just been elected in Brazil. Expect business as usual in Cuba. The Castro clan will go the way of all flesh but there’s plenty of younger clones ready to take their places and no prospect of glastnost there for the foreseeable future. It’s easy to run a tyranny on an island, esp. when the US State Dept has had instructions to look the other way. I see nothing to be optimistic about whatsoever in this continent.
Or, indeed, anywhere else.
David Davis.
They are more likely to kill and eat us (I hope it is in that order – I would prefer to be killed before being eaten).
It is actually not so “extreme” as might be thought.
Already abortion and euthanasia (both considered terrible evils when I was born – and I am not that old) are considered normal.
Euthanasia is supposed to be voluntary – but already (in Holland and in Oregon) there is extensive “counciling” to get people to agree to be killed. Progressiveism is often a moderate step-by-step process rather than a demand for Hell on Earth at once.
The part of Obamacare that included “end of life counciling” was removed from the open Bill during its passage in Congress, but has been PUT BACK IN by Executive Order.
As for abortion:
We not only now have “live birth” abortion movement – but should the child survive the procedure in some States there have been efforts to establish regulations preventing people from giving aid to the still living child (even if the child has no physical or mental disablities – although why having such a diability should mean a death sentance has never been explained).
For example, in Illinois then member of the State Legislature Barack Obama supported such regualtions – regulations meaning that people who survived abortion would be left to die (or would be actively killed) outside the women’s body. And that anyone who tried to help the still living child would be subject to criminal prosecution.
And of, of course, Prof Singer (of Princeton – one of the leading universities) has long advocated the eating of babies, and of very old people and…..
“But he is a demented extremist Paul”.
“extremist” he may be – but this child of Plato is not “demented”.
By the way what do people think the whole “eat the rich” movement is about?
“They are being ironic”.
Some (most) ARE being ironic – yes indeed.
But some are not being ironic at all.
And remember that “the rich” does not mean people with lots of money (not all of them anyway), it means “people who support the system of exploitation”.
Whether such “supporters of exploitation” have lots of money or not – they still count as “the rich”. And certain people (who have lots of money) do not count as “the rich” because they do not “support the system of exploitation”.
Actually I think literal “eating people” is unlikely on a big scale (although Mao’s Red Guard has a practice of cutting out the hearts of “reactionaries” and eating them in front of the dying eyes of their victims) as the human custom and tradition against it is so strong (normally).
However, a minority on the left have kept open this possibility.
Remember not all of them are ignorant of real economics – some of them know it as well as we do.
They know that present policies are leading to economic and social collapse – but that does not deter them.
Indeed economic and social collapse is exactly what they are counting on.
To those who would dismiss my above comment as “insane” (etc) ……
Well prolonged study of those who take the left hand path (the broad and easy road – as opposed to the difficult and narrow right hand path that a person must cling to every once of the honour to remain upon) is indeed not good for mental health.
“As you stare into the abyss remember it can stare into you”.
So I will return to making a comment about a related but lighter matter….
By Friday I should know whether the MSM will collapse this year.
Not just continue to decline – collapse.
Meaing – continue to exist, but no longer have the power to shift elections and policy debates (a power they still, to some extent, have).
I mentioned Africa because, as a sort of contrarian PoV, I cannot believe a commodity-rich continent will not produce at least one or two decently prosperous countries, given a bit of luck.
Latam: sure, no-one is expecting great things across the continent, but Brazil’s economy has been gathering strength and Chile remains one to watch.
Luck may certainly be a factor, but commodities? Think of a poor guy who acquires his wealth with nothing but his wits and hard work against all odds, and of his lazy idiot son who squanders all his inheritance and dies broke. Commodities are just stones and bits of metal without the right people to put them to good use.
Paul, your comments above, while severe, in essence as regards human nature, are absolutely accurate.
The human can modify perceived reality to ultimately fit any necessary beliefs or actions, even if they contain total contradictions.
We are that fallible.
Along with Paul I anticipate the further decline of “responsible” (leftist) journalism and news media in favour of more overtly partisan television, blogs, and citizen journalism.
Where we differ is that I don’t think the (immediate) outcomes will be terribly great. Democracy is — in the best case — a continuous gunless civil war over a giant pot of money and power. In the worst case, the guns come out.
Here in the West the MSM has served an important stabilising purpose, manufacturing consent for the latest bein pensant in both the voters and the political classes. As media reverts to a more partisan form, we can expect politics to likewise revert to a more partisan form. Less “the right honourable gentleman” more “a slur upon the moral government of the world.” I hope the Republicans and Democrats don’t form armed paramilitary wings, but it wouldn’t exactly be without precedent.
I agree with the above comments (“I would” of course).
As for outside the United States…..
I suspect the lefist government in Australia will fall.
And I hope that New Zealand does well.
In Europe I hope that the Swiss People’s Party does well and remains dominated by the “right” faction.
Yes it is not libertarian and is wrong about some things – but it is more good than bad.
And it is the only force in Switzerland that stands against the cultural dominance of the left.
A cultural dominance that has direct political policy consequences (including in economic policy).
The key in Switzerland is to allow a media that reflects what are still (just) the cultural values and political principles of the majority.
In the Republic of Korea (“South Korea”) I am told that the Grand National Party has finally manged to allow the existance of non leftist television stations.
That is vital in Switzerland (and everywhere else) also.
The left control eduction in most places (both state education – and have a large influence in private education, via teacher training, government examinations and assessment, and so on).
If the left control the electronic mass media also – then the situation is very bad.
Ukip will continue to serve no function what-so-fucking ever.
cerebus.
People ask me why I am so grim minded (actually they use harsher language than “grim minded”) it is because, like yourself, I look at the what people actually say and do – not how I would like them to be.
For example, we would both like UKIP to be anti farm subsidies – but it clearly is not, so we have to face the truth.
It is like the Indian economist A. Sen.
For years I was told (by libertarians) that he supported liberty – “when he says democracy Paul – he really means limited government and individual liberty”.
Then I started to watch this man on Indian English langauge television – and it was soon obvious the that the man was a statist scumbag.
For example attributing the financial crises to an “ultra free market”and “lack of regulation”.
When he said “democracy” he meant it exactly that – state control (of food prices and so on) was a good thing, as long as the government was democraticly elected.
Democracy would make the government have the good of the people at heart (like a British government handing out farm subsidies instead of the E.U. doing so) and it was the INTENTIONS of the government that mattered (no such thing as economic law).
No wonder the person got the “Nobel” price – he is like Krugman, Stickinsect and the rest.