Well, it was Samizdata wot won it. Perry de Havilland said a plague on all their houses last week. Chris Cooper said last night that he’d voted for none of the above. And the result? None of the above. A plague on all their houses. Who says blogs don’t have any influence?
Here are the various plagues:
Conservatives: A horror story. No absolute majority. Will Cameron manage to contrive an absolute majority after another general election? (Think 1974.) Will he be able to contrive any kind of government in the meantime? Maybe and maybe, but there’s a world out there, and what Cameron has to do about that may make him even less electorally appealing than he is now. Cameron has been all at sea ever since the boom went bust. As have …
Labour: A horror story. In terms of percentage of the vote, Michael Foot did a tiny bit worse in 1983 than Brown. That’s Brown’s only comfort. But now, do they try to cling on or do they walk away? Neither choice makes them look good. Unelectedness versus “we made the mess but the rest of you must sort it out”.
LibDems: A horror story. Cleggmania fizzled out ignominiously. Yet they can still decide everything, in the short run. So which of two profoundly unappealing big parties do the LibDems pick? Neither choice makes them look good. Plus: do they plunge the political system into a huge row about proportional representation? But the problem is not how they’re picked; it’s what the hell they now do about that world out there. And what the hell kind of “mandate” do the LibDems now have to demand anything at all? Yet if Clegg comes away from all this with nothing, what will his party think?
Others: BNP, UKIP, Greens, etc. My impression is UKIP did not too shabbily, but not too shabbily doesn’t really count. At least the Greenies got a stuffing. SNP hardly laid a glove on Labour in Scotland.
Just heard a politician talking on the telly – I think somebody called Tony McNulty:
“Anyone who thinks this is a good result for any party, locally or nationally, needs their head examining.”
Boris Johnson agrees. Now I’m watching him say that the voters hate all the politicians, and have found a way to make all of them suffer. All those us who wanted the whole damn lot of them squirming as a result of this election have now got our wish.
Now Brown is making a speech. He’s trying to cling on.
The Green Party managed to get a member of their party elected to parliament and not have anyone nearly die in a plane crash…by UKIP standards the Green Party’s election was a rousing success.
If your thought was that the best case scenario was for no clear majority, a year or two of inaction, and then another election in which the choices will not be palatable, then you got what you wanted, I think. If Cleggmania had led to the Lib Dems winning 90 seats and possibly outpolling one or both of the other major parties, then they would be in a clear position as kingmakers, and with a clear grievance. “We will support you so as to provide stable government, but we demand electoral reform in return, meaning a German style list based PR system” would have been it, I think. However, the Lib Dems actually did badly, so although their votes are necessary, I doubt they can go into many arguments with much authority.
As it is, though, the LDs could provide enough votes for the Tories to govern easily, but the Tories will be lukewarm in electoral reform. The Tories might support an Australian style Alternate Vote (“Preferential” to Australians. “Instant Runoff” to some Americans), which would have aided the Tories and LDs last night, but would likely not fundamentally change the party balance in the UK or the single member constituency arrangement in this country, but I doubt they would be willing to concede the point the whole way. Labour might have been desperate enough to do this, but for Labour to remain in government they need not just the LDs but the support of a few sundry Greens, Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, and other such. It’s hard to imagine such a thing persisting long, but it seems Labour want to try it. The first price from the Lib Dems in such a situation will be Labour being led by someone who is not Gordon Brown. I wonder if Peter Mandelson has had metaphorically knifed yet. One gets the impression that days like today are what Mandelson lives for.
Qapla! Oh, sorry… I thought you said Klingon for a second there.
Pollo
Yes, scrub that about the Greens. All I heard was UKIPers getting 2,000 or so, and Greenies getting 500 or so, every seat I heard the result of. I missed Caroline Lucas, and they weren’t talking about this when I clocked back on.
Just out of curiosity – and since it seems to be a given that I (and us non-limeys) should know – what happens now? From what I can gather, Brown gets first dibs on creating a government, but if that doesn’t work, what then?
Another quickly called election? Live with it? The UK doesn’t have the president system like France or Portugal, so a hung parliament means a wonderfully neutered government, yes? And a dictatorship of the bureaucrats.
Canada has had a couple of ‘minority governments’ in the period since GrBr last did. Steve Harper faced down the Liberals and the NDP when they tried to claim the right to power (by way of a coalition) and went to the Governor General to prorogue the session. The Liberals and ‘New Democratic Party’ otherwise known as the socialists and the marxists, realized that they were broke and that the voters would hurt them badly if an election were forced so soon after the last one. And things have quieted down to the usual dull roar, interrupted by occasional screaming and tears. Just like your friendly neighbourhood kindergarten.
To a large extent this will be as choreographed as a minuet. Brown cannot govern without the Libs. A coalition of Lab/Lib cannot long continue. Not sure of the actual position, but I read it that Cameron actually does not need 326…Re-appoint the Speaker subtract Sinn Fein (5?) and he needs 322. Bribe the Unionists, Plaid Cymru and the SNP and he’s there. All of those want some sort of increased devolution. Easy to promise especially if matched by ‘not voting on English law’. And they won’t want another election soon. Elections are relatively far more expensive for small parties than for large parties.
The Cameron should go after the waste: kill the quangos (which Cameron has ‘said’ he will do) and other doddles, without touching NHS or welfare and he will earn the re-match.
Of course, whether he has the Balls (Or Miliband) to do what Sean Gabb has proposed is another matter…but the fiscal situation makes it easy for him to grab the nettle or the knife. Killing the linkage to Europe will save BILLIONS at a fell swoop (or swell swoop). I doubt he has the Balls to kill the BBC and fire 50% of the top 30% of the simple serpants, but that would save a couple of BILLION too.
And pass the REPEAL ACT.
But then I’m dreaming, aren’t I? In technicolour?
Yep, funny that – didn’t even vote and yet got the result I wanted!
I’ll take your plague and raise you a pox on top.
Shorting any rip (if there is one……) in the Pound on Monday could well turn a tidy profit.
A good account of the election results Brian – everyone lost.
As Cameron – if he can not win after 13 years of (demented) Labour government and in the middle of an economic crises, then he had better go home.
Back to the family estate with you David – and trouble us no more.