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A question about just how nuts the Russians might get A question that occurred to me in some of the recent jousting on the Samizdata comment threads about Russia’s annexation of parts of Georgia was this: what other countries might get in the cross-hairs? It seems to me that there could be a real risk that Ukraine and the Baltic states like Latvia – many of which have Russian-speaking populations living among them – might “provoke” poor old put-upon Russia to send in the tanks. Questions:
What, if anything, will the NATO powers do about it?
What should such powers do?
Is the risk serious anyway?
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I very much doubt the Baltics, but Crimea has a strong chance of causing trouble. Especially if Ukraine can’t pull itself together.
We all have to die … it’s just that most of us want it to be later rather than sooner.
Putin is undoubtedly seeking to reinstate Stalin and views Stalin’s methods as acceptable given the context.
Do not get too comfortable, folks. There is a nuke heading your way. It has not left the launch pad yet but the countdown in Russian has started.
The cyberwar is hot – lots of Ivans – call me Ivor of Boston spamming the blogs.
The oil as always is the issue. Russia is trying to vassalise Europe as Napoleon and Hitler before them.
Russian analysis has concluded that it has to wage war as coolly but not coldly as possible.
Not many mice get the cheese off the trap Mr Putin.
We all have to die … it’s just that most of us want it to be later rather than sooner.
Putin is undoubtedly seeking to reinstate Stalin and views Stalin’s methods as acceptable given the context.
Do not get too comfortable, folks. There is a nuke heading your way. It has not left the launch pad yet but the countdown in Russian has started.
The cyberwar is hot – lots of Ivans – call me Ivor of Boston spamming the blogs.
The oil as always is the issue. Russia is trying to vassalise Europe as Napoleon and Hitler before them.
Russian analysis has concluded that it has to wage war as coolly but not coldly as possible.
Not many mice get the cheese off the trap Mr Putin.
If it gets to the point where Russia is actively starting to attempt to reassimilate the Baltics then we’re in a shooting war. When we start attriting their pathetic armour at the rate we are capable of, theatre commanders will ask for and will be given release authority for tac nukes in the FEBA. NATO will start losing divisions, at which point release authority will just have started filtering down from NCA. We will eliminate rear echelon Soviet forces; now they’ll up the ante to limited countervalue retaliation (nuke Antwerp or Rheindahlen or Düsseldorf or Southampton). Then we take out Saratov or Minsk (if Byelorus is an enemy). Then bad things happen..
I really think that there is a serious risk f a crisis between Nato and Russia. This situation can lead to a new “kosovo” and the risks of violations of human rights is high. Letizia. http://www.letizialisi.com
Sorry David, you underestimate the EURABIA’s (the “old Europe) cowardice and readyness to appease. It will take much more blood of Balts, Ukrainians, Poles and others, before they (Eurabians) are going to succumb to the US pressure and do “something” – to issue a strong worded letter of condemnation….
The Baltic States are not in Russia’s gunsight but Ukraine is asking for trouble by provoking Russia with its comments on Sevastopol. Crimea and Sevastopol was Russian territory until Khruschev handed them to Ukraine. By logic the Russian Duma (ie. Putin) can decree the return of the return of Crimea and Sevastopol to mother Russia.
The line in the sand is the Baltics. And I think Pooty Poot knows that. Oh he’ll fuck around in the ‘stans and the Ukraine but he knows that Latvia is a little bit too close to be a “far off land of which we know little”. He wouldn’t dare. And if he did the mighty Red Army would be handed it’s ass in a sling.
Knobheads.
It was Georgia that annexed South Ossetia and Abkhazia post-USSR. Some libertarians you are – the South Ossetians and Abkhazians have enjoyed de facto independence since 1991. And they were just as entitled to go their own way as was Georgia.
http://www.inforos.com/?id=8034&act=print (Link)
Fortunately re: Ukraine, the pretty lady PM is quietly re-orienting toward Moscow and away from the Soros/US/NATO pact which seeks 1) to asset strip her nation, and 2) to use it as a base to keep Russia from the competition for energy control by threatening her militarily.
The Russians in any case have no designs on Georgia, Ukraine, or Poland – it is the international financial clique and western energy companies – and the governments they control – who are aggressively seeking to control the region.
Recent events have made all kinds of potential conflicts in eastern europe less likely. The money meddlers are discredited, roustabouts like Saakashvilli will think twice before military adventures, and America and NATO have been shown to be all talk.
The real threat remains to Iran, from America/Israel. That too is less likely, but given the desperation of the Bush/neocon clique to 1) control energy, and 2) destroy everyone Israel hates, that can’t be ruled out.
The solution to Russia is the same as the solution to Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia – $70 oil. Drop the price down to that and all of them pull their horns in. Drop it further and they start squealing. If they want to get by they might even have to start making things people want to buy.
Current prices have nothing to do with peak oil, or any other resource depletion, but to do exclusively with US domestic politics. Announce an intention to drill ANWR, drill offshore and release oil shale, and prices will collapse half an hour later.
Taking into account all those reserves, at $40 bbl the US has eight times the reserves of Saudi.
Knobheads.
Another one.
There seems to be some sort of concerted attempt to spread Soviet style propaganda/justifications of Russian behaviour across the net. EUreferendum discussed it a while back.
What I have difficulty with is the quality of the justifications. The claims put forward by wesley here are so nonsensical that surely he can’t expect us to take them seriously, in which case, why bother posting them? If he, and his masters, truly do expect us to believe them, surely that is an indication that they think we are morons?
Or do they truly not realise how weak their arguments are?
wesley isn’t even clever. He contradicts himself.
Self determination for South Ossetians is good.
Fortunately the Ukranian Government is coming round to Moscow’s way of thinking is also good.
Fortunately for who wesley? That’s one of the most scarcely veiled threats I have ever heard. “You lot have had your run in the park for a few years and it’s now time to get back under the jackboot or fucking else”.
Cats is right. Get the oil (and gas) prices down and Russia, Saudi et al are all pissing into the wind. But there’s something else with Russia. Russia has contributed great art literature and science to the world. The first man in space was a Russian for fuck’s sake. We Brits lost an empire but are content to rest on the laurels of Newton and Shakespeare (and the rest). Russia, get over it, join the civilized nations and please stop sounding like a pissed old gobshite in the boozer suggesting that Britain can be great again if it only reconquers India.
Russia is one of the great nations of the world. My wife loved Moscow and Petersburg when she lived there as she later loved London. The idea that Russia needs a sodding empire in this day and age to prove itself is ludicrous. The idea that Russia (largest country on the planet and catastrophic demographics) needs lebensraum or even spheres of interference is just nuts.
Or in short. Getting into a C19th pissing contest in the Caucasia does less for Russia’s rep in the West than something Tschaikovsi scribbled on a napkin between courses.
Cats,
Remember the wolf guy a few weeks ago? Not positive but I think he was actually writing in Russian and then Babelfishing his posts.
I suspect that wesley may be doing the same thing. His arguments look like they could almost be persuasive, in another language and to someone with limited background information. Actually, his reads like “Throw the Jews Down the Well,” which IIRC was a deleted scene from “Borat.”
Christ. Even Another Sockpupper From China put a little more effort into it, although I’m still waiting for that lying sack of crap to tell me how over a dozen people died in less than a week from less-lethal weapons.
FWIW, by NS Yeoh’s logic, the US can occupy and annex Cuba, the Phillipines, and any number of Japanese possessions. And roughly half of Europe, now that I think of it.
As far as the US/NATO posing a military threat to Russia: I’d like an estimate of how many Russians will be killed by the missile interceptors being installed in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Is there any US military presence in a nation bordering Russia, which is there without the invitation or permission of the host government? Is there a Russian military presence in any of those nations without the invitation or permission of the host government?
And see P.J. O’Rourke’s comment about what we can infer about the people who object to our installation of a burglar alarm.
Nick, I really liked that last comment (although one could say that I have a bias on the subject).
“The mighty red army would be handed is ass (sic) in a sling”
Aye right, that’s what Mr. Hitler thought, too.
Not to mention M. Bonaparte.
Be careful what you wish for.
Andrew,
No one is planning on invading Russia, a la the two gentlemen you mention.
What will happen if the decrepit and broken down Russian were to try and face up to the West in their own territories? Ass in sling time I guess.
Remembering that the Baltics and Poland are now (politically) part of the west.
No one in the West wants a pissing contest, but we are not the ones rattling scabres.
To my mind, Russia’s leaders forget that the US could hasten the fall of petroleum prices in the medium term at the latest. It is unlikely that this would come about from one silver bullet i.e drilling but it would confirm that Russia is not in the US’s military league.
Does anyone here have an idea which of these petro-fueled dictatorships (Iran, Russia, S.Arabia, Libya) would survive a permanent slide in crude prices?
Sorry, but the silver bullet would work. A production of just a couple of percent over demand would result in a collapse in prices, just as only a slight edge of demand over supply can result in a surge in prices.
I repeat, at $40 per bbl the US has recoverable reserves eight times those of Saudi, if only congress would agree to their being accessed.
That is a f**k of a lot of oil.
Pure distilled essence of barking moonbat
You folks on the eastern side of the Atlantic have a better feel for NATO and the EU than I do, so I have to ask: Do you really think either would do anything more than talk if Russia were to invade any of the Baltic states? Poland, perhaps, since it borders on Germany, but Estonia? Personally, I’m pretty cynical about NATO; it has degenerated from a military alliance into an internation social services agency.
I hope this “clique” succeeds. “No designs” on the Ukraine, yeah, riiiight.
the international financial clique
Are we being naive here? Is this another term for that group also known, generically, as “zionists”?
From the outset of the occupation of Georgia, internally-directed Russian propaganda organs have been attempting to justify the invasion. They wouldn’t be doing this if they didn’t need to. Perhaps it is too late to counter the propaganda, but evidently the support of the Russian people for the neo-Soviets is crucial. This implies that more sewage is in the pipe.
Too bad the supreme Clintonista blunder in Kosovo alienated Russians to so great a degree, making it easier for them to be led by the nose. But what’s done is done, and we have to live with the consequences.
If there has been ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia, Medvedev could be held responsible, at a distance, at least. But that’s quite a slippery slope.
The current reluctance of China and the central Asian republics to support Russia is not something that can be counted on in the long term.
Whatever the neo-Soviets’ long-term plans are, European pusillanimity must be a dinner bell for wolves. It’ll be interesting to see whether and how the neo-Sovs ratchet up the demagoguery w.r.t. the small defensive missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. I haven’t yet seen news of any signs of guerrilla activity in northeast Ukraine or the Baltics. I suspect that Ukraine’s desire to change the terms of Russia’s Black Sea fleet’s use of Ukrainian soil could lead the neo-Sovs to simply seize territory on some sort of national-security pretext, as a fait accompli apparently not directly addressable without a major war.
I don’t think Wesley is a Russian-backed cyber warrior; it’s much more likely that he’s an undergraduate liberal arts student who’s been paying attention in his lectures.
That analysis has already been done by the present dominant coalition in Russia (weighing the possibilities ,and effect on the Russian populace, of any coordinated action from abroad).
In general, as now composed, the member states of NATO and their populations, of differing social structures and objectives are not well-classified as “powers.” The functions of NATO are now constrained by domestic politics and attitudes, including wariness of U S- initiated actions.
The U S, which does represent power (due to the capacity for executive decision, rather than “concensus”) has (through that executive) used NATO on the escutcheon of its military force, often to the angst of politicians in member states.
Some review (which is ongoing) of the current organization and operation of NATO (and lack of commitments plus unfulfilled commitments) has to be completed forthwith. The need for effective and immediate responses is indeed urgent for reasons given below.
That will likely result in the formation of either a “core” within what NATO has become, or a return to the original concept with a different make-up (including Australia).
The interim risk is mis-perception by the ruling coalition in Russia, amplified by the tendency (e.g. EU dithering) for French and German type decision avoidance.
Europe talks, whines, nothing more. I am sure that Putin and Russians are more afraid of potential resistence from Eastern Europe than about Nato or Western Europe military. For military to matter it needs there be a WILL to use them in first place. Western Europe is economically stagnated and heading for troubles and Russia is not much better overall. We are back in 30’s all along. I just hope Putin remains a realist and not a utopian.
Counting Cats: I repeat, at $40 per bbl the US has recoverable reserves eight times those of Saudi, if only congress would agree to their being accessed.
Any evidence?
Why do we talk about “NATO” as if it were an independent entity? How many Divisions does NATO have, as Stalin might have asked.
NATO is a relic from a time when the US felt a need to be involved in Europe, and wanted to be a little more subtle about it than simply annexing territory for bases from defeated enemies. But the modern EUnuch’s constant tirade of anti-Americanism has been successful — the only people left in the US who care about Europe any more are the readers of the New York Times, who are themselves rapidly becoming a threatened species.
Under President Obama, the EU will lose the American umbrella; and when it rains, Europeans will get wet. Putin knows this, even if the average German has not realised it yet.
If the Americans don’t want to play and the Europeans decide they need to act over this or that state then I think Ringo and Kratman had the only viable answer in their Posleen War novel Watch on the Rhine.
(For those who haven’t read the book, they used Galactic rejuvenation techniques to resuscitate a load of old SS men to stiffen up the modern German army with troops who could actually fight and had the will to do so.)
And yes, my tongue is very much in my cheek, but the point is quite serious. Few troops in the European armed forces have had any experience of war and the ‘brass’ of those armies have not had their theories or skills put to the test.
Historically, this situation has not been ideal when hostilities have broken out.
Of course the Russians are pretty much in the same boat, so any confrontation between the two is likely to be messy. In this situation, my guess would be that much of the high tech would be squandered early and it would be down to boots on the ground.
Whether either of the two sides would resort to nukes would of course be the defining question of such a war.
Although many complain about the supposed weakness and ‘pacifism’ of France and Germany, I suspect that if they became significant military powers again, the kind of British folk denouncing them for being weak would be moaning that there was a new Napoleon in Paris and a new Hitler in Berlin.
More fine libertarian arguments: cap the price of oil (and the people advised to do this are the oil barons in the Whitehouse remember, whose sabre-rattling re: Iran is doing more to push the price of oil up than anything.. surprise…) and keep the war party going – pushing and pushing on Russia’s borders contra Reagan’s promises and cheering on a conflict just to see Russia ‘handed its ass (and how foolish that idea is – schoolboys and taxi drivers are proving too much for the combined forces of Britian and the USA in two countries. You back France and Germany against Russia though.. yurp).
Clueless, just clueless.
And mocking the idea that people like Soros and Rothschild financed the coloured revolutions, and that Soros’s foundations trained the puppet-leaders of the western friendly regimes and funded their state media and police only reveals your narrow mindedness. You don’t even have the excuse that this is little known… everyone knows it.
If you think I complain about these people because they are Jewish, just because the Rothschilds support ethnic nationalism for the Jewish people but oppose it for other peoples; and because Soros funds pro-diversity organisations and propaganda in non-ethnic-states, but leaves Israel well enough alone, you are wrong. That double-standard is hardly unique to Jews, all our major parties adhere to it, and so do most of our media.
Wesley,
Nobody said anything about capping the price of oil. If for example Europeans invested heavily in nuke power or Canadians started exploiting the oil shale in Alberta or Americans… You get the picture. It’s market driven.
And other than that Wesley just please do fuck off.
Ok, lets be honest here about what Wesley is really saying. It is ‘The International Jewish Conspiracy’ who are responsible for, well, whatever… I figured this was where he was headed the moment he used the word ‘clique’ earlier. There is a 99.9% correlation between people not worth debating and people using the world ‘clique’. Seriously, not joking. This is ZOG lunacy here.
Of course!
Barking. Moonbat.
Do not feed the trolls.
Russians are not space aliens.
They are not have the word “wicked” written in their D.N.A.
What has happened is that a group of very nasty people (led by Putin) has gained control of Russia (taking the opportunity given them by the inflation, banking collapse and economic decline of the Yelstin years – itself caused by following very bad “liberal” economic advice from Western advisers).
Putin and co did not do only bad things – for example they restricted the growth of the money supply (although not enough) and the replaced the highly “progressive” (and therefore daft) income tax of the Yelstin years with a flat rate tax.
However, they have taken total control of education and the media to impose their view of the world on the population – and sadly most people what they are told (if there is no real alternative sources of information – and “the internet, the internet” is NOT enough).
Anyone who thinks it can not happen in the West is mistaken.
For example, a point of view (that of “progressive left”) already has great power in education (so the more “educated” someone is the more close minded they become) and the media in the United States.
With a bit of a push this great power could turn into a de facto monopoly.
And, yes, that is exactly what the “progressive left” are planning.
So yes it “can happen here”.
The difference being that Putin is a pragmatic (although power lusting) thug who happens to be have been trained in some Marxist tactics (having been brought up in the Soviet Union and trained in the K.G.B.).
The threat in the West is from people who are lot more sincere than Putin is.
I have been rather taken aback by the internal propaganda campaign too. It’s got quite a few people I know spooked – after all, there must be some reason for it and it’s not clear what. Perhaps things are going to go Chechnya style in Ingushetia, or maybe Putin’s post-Soviet complexes have crossed the line into obsessions and he’s lost it.
Thank God for people like Ron Paul, Sean Gabb, Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell and Hans Hermann-Hoppe.
Without these handful of realists, the world would be entitled to think all libertarians were blood-thirsty money-obsessed lunatics incapable of principled thought – or reasoned argument.
You want moonbats, Perry: ask anyone outside neocon or faux-libertarian circles what they think of comments like this:
… given America’s recent exploits in south west asia and elsewhere – and contrasted with Russia’s defense of civilian populations over South Ossetia.
No wonder more people think you lot are moonbats, than think I am.
Actually when it comes to foreign affairs the views here are very mainstream, so I have no idea what Wesley is talking about.
Wesley can give thanks to his imaginary invisible friend all he likes but I cannot take anyone in his list of luminaries seriously when discussing international affairs. These ‘libertarians’ are people who unerringly find themselves supporting the greater evil (such as China, Russia, Sudan or Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbia) against whoever they are beating up on.
Oh, we’re calling the recent Russian aggression “defence of civilian populations” now, are we? Does the Russian propaganda ministry know you’re plagiarising their work?
OTOH, I suppose the Russians are adhering to a doctrine of “forward defence”, what with their military still dug into positions deep inside Georgian territory…a bit harder to determine a humanitarian angle from that fact, wouldn’t you say, Wesley?
Wesley writes:
Raimondo has been ranting about the influence of the Israeli lobby and Jews for years. He has zero credibility, even with some of the more intelligent parts of the “anti-war” side; he’s little better than Chomsky. I would not trust him if he gave me street directions for the nearest shop.
Lew Rockwell is the man credited with writing a series of racist newsletters for R. Paul. Sean Gabb, while a good guy most of the time, is a hard-line isolationist who has also, I am angered to say, once briefly worked as a pr flack for the islamist government of Sudan.
If you lie down with dogs, you get fleas.
given America’s recent exploits in south west asia and elsewhere
What has America got to do with it? If Russian soldiers raping and pillaging across Georgia is right and proper, then anything America may have done, or not done, somewhere else is of no relevance.
The logic simply does not stand up.
Mentioning America is a red herring.
Tell me Wesley, what were all those armaments doing there? Why had they been moved to the border in secret?
BTW, you seem not to be aware that even the Russian government has dropped the claims about Georgians attacking the civilian populations. This was such obvious tripe that even these guys could no longer face the embarrassment of repeating it.
You are not even keeping up with your masters latest propaganda. Under Stalin you could have been shot for that.
Wesley –
Oceania is at war with Eurasia, Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia.
This week.
However, they have taken total control of education and the media to impose their view of the world on the population – and sadly most people what they are told (if there is no real alternative sources of information – and “the internet, the internet” is NOT enough).
Anyone who thinks it can not happen in the West is mistaken.”
I thought this had already happened here? Watching TV, which I rarely do nowadays, convinces me it’s a left-wing propaganda conduit straight into people’s living rooms. The education system ditto.
If the EU were to ask me to fight against the Russkis, I’d consider that Hobson’s choice. Both pretty much would be interested in wresting democracy out of the hands of the people, dicing and slicing the country up, erasing national cultures and replacing the people with incomers. I think I’ll sit on me hands in that case.
Andy.
Were I running things in the Ukraine I’d be stocking up on anti-tank (which is conveniently also anti-APC) mines and doing a lot of deployment along the Eastern border, anywhere the terrain would permit troop movements en-masse.
That and some plans for fast action to disable key roads would make for a very important and useful slowing-down action in case of “troubles”.
(I’d also be talking with the United States, both openly and semi-secretly. I say semi-secretly, because I’d want the Kremlin to find out quite a bit about what I was saying.
[“The Premier loves surprises – it was to be announced at the Party Congress next Thursday.” – not so good.]
Dangerous (politically and personally)? Yes.
But so’s the alternative.)