I found this article by Edward L. Glaeser, about the city of Buffalo, very interesting. Both Buffalo’s rise and its current eclipse were caused by transport, first in the form of the Erie Canal, and then in the form of trains and lorries which made the canal less significant. Also important, at first, was proximity to Niagara Falls and its abundant energy supply. Later, when more efficient means of transmitting energy were developed, that proximity also counted for less.
More recently, of course, the Federal Government has only made things worse by throwing billions into the bottomless pit of successive ‘urban renewal’ projects, like superfluous housing schemes to add to the already abundant housing stock, or a superfluous train system to add to the already abundant road system. Instead of trying to help the place, says Glaeser, the Feds should be helping the people, to have good lives. In Buffalo or wherever else they end up living. Buffalo, he says, should “shrink to greatness”. I think it would be even better if the Feds didn’t try to help at all, and just knocked it off the income tax, but then I would, wouldn’t I?
All of which is very interesting, but I found this bit of Glaesar’s article especially intriguing:
And Buffalo’s dismal weather didn’t help. January temperatures are one of the best predictors of urban success over the last half-century, with colder climes losing out – and Buffalo isn’t just cold during the winter: blizzards regularly shut the city down completely. The invention of air conditioners and certain public health advances made warmer states even more alluring.
I should guess that this consideration may have something to do with the relative stagnation of the north of England compared to the south of England in recent decades. But because the difference is less marked, this would presumably be harder to prove. Whether that particular effect is real or not, a lot now would seem to hinge on whether the weather is going to get warmer, as the current orthodoxy among the politicians and their preferred scientists says it will, or colder, as some heretics now prophecy.
“January temperatures are one of the best predictors of urban success over the last half-century, with colder climes losing out”
Monotonically? I’d think there has to be a limit.
Seems to me that San Francisco is a better place to live and work than Los Angeles (and Seattle is better than either), just as Wellington and Melbourne are better than Auckland and Sydney.
The warmer of those pairs get the heavy industry, the cooler get the creative (including software) and arts.
Sorry, but this one won’t fly.
You only have to compare London with Madrid, Lisbon, Rome, Athens or Ouagadougou to realise that January temperatures have little connection with cultural vitality.
And if that isn’t a clincher, try comparing New York with anywhere south of it.
New York City cold is slightly irksome.Upstate cold is something else again. Why anyone would put up with it and then in addition pay NY’s high taxes is beyond my understanding.Well a lot of them are poor enough that taxes don’t matter. I pay NYC’s high taxes because I enjoy the amenitities here ,which exist despite a dysfunctional and extravagant political culture. Why do people stay in this state? Well actually they don’t; NY has essentially zero population growth or rather piss poor immigrants come here from the third world while the native born move out.
Having lived in FL, it often felt like there are more NYorkers in there than there are in NY.
Other historians have noted the importance of air conditioning as a force for demographic change in 20th Century America (i.e, you lived in places like Buffalo because it was impossible to live in places like Phoenix until about 1960).
But Buffalo itself is clearly an outlier because of the rise and fall of the Erie Canal.
So, “global warming” could help Buffalo, but it’s got to be stopped…
renminbi: “New York City cold is slightly irksome.Upstate cold is something else again. Why anyone would put up with it and then in addition pay NY’s high taxes is beyond my understanding.Well a lot of them are poor enough that taxes don’t matter. I pay NYC’s high taxes because I enjoy the amenitities here ,which exist despite a dysfunctional and extravagant political culture. Why do people stay in this state? Well actually they don’t; NY has essentially zero population growth or rather piss poor immigrants come here from the third world while the native born move out.”
Except for the irksome cold, you’ve just described California pretty well also.
And I would point out that the economies of Denver, Boston, and Chicago don’t seem to be hindered too greatly by cold winters either.
“blizzards regularly shut down the city”..
If by regularly you mean ever few years then yes that’s true. Despite my current location I lived in the Buffalo area for several years. Historically most of the snow in Western New York falls south of the city.
I think its a combination of cold and whether the local economy can change and adapt. Also whether the city fulfills a vital role in the regional economy. Obviously Chicago, and Denver offer enough to survive their winters. However, they don’t call the area from Syracuse through Rochester on to Buffalo the “rust belt” for nothing.
David, I agree. I live in Canada’s ‘sunny south’ , the Niagara Peninsula, and we are perpetually tuned in to Buffalo’s classical station so we hear the Buffalo weather bulletins. The nastier wintry weather is more often than not in the southern tier.
I’d also like to put in a good word for Buffalo’s cultural heritage. The music scene there is wonderful and for architectural buffs there is a vast amount of Frank Lloyd Wright building to be seen. There are also large numbers of churches with attractions such as Tiffany stained glass, etc. etc. a legacy from Buffalo’s boom times.
As for climate having an adverse effect on development I’m Canadian and the last time I looked my home and native land looked pretty cutting edge. I’m not rah rahing cold climates just pointing out that good things can happen in somewhat marginal climates.
The author hit the economic reasons for Buffalo’s decline exactly right. The weather part — not so much. Boston and Minneapolis are doing quite well.
Our problem in Buffalo is the combination of living in the most heavily-taxed state combined with a population that was historically blue-collar and thus less inclined toward entrepreneurialism.
On the other hand, neighboring Rochester is a relatively “high-tech” town (Kodak, Xerox, Bausch & Lomb), but even its highly-skilled and educated population can’t overcome the drag of NY’s costs of government. It’s shrinking, too.
A couple of degrees temperature this way or the other can’t matter that much. It has become fashionable these days to attribute everything to climate…
This article shows how important it is for a city to reinvent itself when it’s original raison d’etre ceases to be. No amount of redevelopment dollars can kickstart an economy once it has for all practical purposes ceased to exist.
For the most part I agree with the commenters that economic factors are at the root of Buffalo’s decline, weather not so much. Although it’s worth pointing out that even among northern cities Buffalo has a particularly bitter winter caused by the “Lake Effect” of winter storms picking up water as they sweep over Lake Erie.
One response to the climate that successful northern cities have made is to build a “city beneath the city” an underground city linked by tunnels. Buffalo, to my knowledge has not made a significant investment in this area. It might be a place to start.
Alisa
New Yorkers in Florida are what Rudy G. is counting on. We will soon see if he is correct.
As for the main point.
Alberta is one of the coldest Provinces in Canada and it is also the most successful.
“Oil – ditto Alaska in the United States”.
It is not just oil – but, yes that is a lot of it.
But how does this explain the success of cold New Hampshire, or cold South Dakota or cold…..
Very fast population growth (and no not poor third world immigrants) and great prosperity in price parity terms (although the Democrats may change that in New Hampshire).
Actually I think that Brian had the true factor.
It was the high taxes of Buffalo that caused its decline.
You have the high taxes of New York State without either the wonders of New York City (which attract a lot of very rich people even now) or the wonders of rural New York State (some very attractive country indeed).
Who would want to live in Buffalo or any of the cities of New York State apart from (for those who like this sort of thing) New York City.
Albany, as State capital, has a reason to exist – but the rest?
As for California – fast growing population, of immigrants from other parts of the world.
More Californians leave the State than people from other parts of the United States go there.
This can be unfortunate – as a lot of the recent wave of Californians to go to Colorado (a rather cold, snow covered place this time of year) have taken there Californian statism with them.
“Things have got really bad where I am, I will move somewhere else….. and make it just as bad as the place I left”.
Still at least we can still joke.
“What is the best thing a businessman ever sees in California?”
“The road to Nevada”.
What do Coloradoans dream about?
10,000 hybrids with California plates, westbound on I-70 passing Fruita, each with a Texan in the trunk.
Funny that in the early years of the 20th century Buffalo was one of the most entrepreneurial cities in the US. A lot of the early auto manufacturers and designers got their start in Buffalo. It was only the rise of the industry in Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana that caused so many of the Buffalo manufacturers to relocate and take their workers and engineers with them. That was when Buffalo went downhill. The basic infrastructure is still there if the state of New York would only get out of the way and let them do what they do best. The same with Rochester and Schenectady and Binghamton as well.
I wouldn’t be so quick to discount climate as a significant factor in population trends. It’s not the sole factor, but I do think it plays a role.
Having grown up in Illinois (NOT CHICAGO!), spent some time in southern Arizona, now back in the Midwest in Omaha…I know a LOT of people moved to the south because of the weather.
It’s generally cheaper to live in warmer climes and historically, Southern states haven’t had the tax burden that the Northern states inflicted upon themselves.
Consider that, for instance, Tennessee has no income tax and is quite a bit warmer than (for example) New York….a resident in Tennessee is saving money both in taxes and heating/fuel. Given current tax rates AND fuel costs, that amounts to a nice chunk of change.
It’s an interesting study in a city. The problem is that I’m not sure exactly what city the author is describing. Living in Buffalo, NY, I can safely say that it’s not my town. Although the city of buffalo may have college graduation rates that reflect the national average, the surrounding communities more than make up for it. Western New York as a whole is a college town, and the diverse work force reflects it.
Safe streets and better schools? The NYS school system is one of the better in the country and Buffalo and surrounding communities ranks extremly low for crime rates. Compared to the authors home town of Boston, one would be much better off walking our streets at night.
Buffalo does have a problem with being over taxed and over regulated. It has driven out jobs which has led to a declining population. This, however, is a temporary problem and one hopes that the free market resolves it quickly.
In the mean time I live in an area with low home prices, friendly neighbors, beautifull summers falls and springs and a quality of life that can’t be beat.
Winter? Honest to god it’s better here than most of the North East.
Good schools?
I have heard that New York had gone in for the “Everyday Math” course (the farce produced by the University of Chicago Education Department) with its questions of “if mathematics were a colour what colour woul it be?” and “if mathematics were an animal what animal would it be?” – and all the rest of the nonsense.
But perhaps that is just New York City – rather than the whole State.