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What now Sarko? France has elected Sarkozy and I must say I am curious to see what happens next.
In the short term, will the anticipated riots in the banlieue happen? In the long term, will Sarko be France’s Thatcher and solve the serious structural problems created by decades of intrusive statism? Or will he be a disastrous Ted Heath, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic with no real understanding why things are so bad? Does he even have the perspectives needed to change the right things and move France in as more market/liberty oriented direction? And even if he does, will the System simply defeat any attempt to change it? I am dubious to say the least about the willingness of French society to break its addiction to other people’s money but we will see.
What do you think? 
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Sarkozy is sincere (for a politician), and he will try to make significant reforms in France. He will fail because the people who benefit from the status quo will be able to prevent anything important from changing. The system is hardwired for more of the same, no matter what the consequences. Look for a diaspora from France of everyone with talent and money or both later in his term as the realization sinks in that there cannot be a French Thatcher because France is not England, and the road to decline and decay to becoming part of the Maghreb is inevitable.
I think maybe good for France; probably bad for Europe in general. The reason being that he has much less truck with French exceptionalism than the socialists, or even Chirac. That means less stands in the way of more power shifting to Brussells.
In the short term, will the anticipated riots in the banlieue happen?
In a way, it might be for the best if there are riots. France has parliamentary elections coming up in a month’s time. If the racailles go berserk with rage against Sarkozy, it will remind the French of the magnitude of their real problem, and spur them to vote for representative who will support Sarkozy’s hard line.
This election was very interesting because it signs a political shift.
Dispite Sarkozy being from the “right” like Chirac the voters perceived enough diference in the Right to vote
for Sarkozy after what is more or less seen as a decrepit presidence by Mr. Chirac. From my memory that is novel.
I think this will start a period of leftist desperation that could be compounded by the US Presidential election since even Bush low scores doesnt appears to make Republican candidates dead in the water, Guiliani even getting usually better scores than Democrats. If that happens is to be expect a lot of soul searching in some parts of the left and violent reactions in others.
That is already happening in France that i am afraid it will get dirty soon . If the last ditch Ségolene try ” dont vote Sarkozy because there will be violence” is a sign.
And the Prime Minister election is in June…
It’ll be good for France if he can do what he promises. As for rampant feminists, does Segolene go in for bullying of business? Our Labor Party here in Aus, the Federal Opposition, has a female deputy who was angry that businessmen had opinions on Industrial Relations, and told them to shut up! She later retracted it with the usual ‘Just joking; taken out of context’ excuses, but we think that she really meant it.
And what’s Scotland likely to do now? Will Britain break up?
Giuliani has never been accused of being a libertarian, or even a conservative.
However, there’s hope. A true Reagan conservative would change the terrain entirely. (In other words, “Run, Fred, Run!”)
Back to the original question: I don’t know how much leverage Sarkozy will even have. There’s enough traction for his opposition, from having had decades of statism, that he’s got his work cut out for him. The pending legislative elections IMHO will tell the tale. If Royal’s prediction of riots comes true, then I see a backlash at the polls, and Sarkozy will have at least a year or so of things going his way.
OTOH, if the 2005 rioters and the unknown people who Segolene Royal thought would misbehave, instead keep a low profile going into elections, then whatever majority Sarkozy picks up will be slimmer and advancing most of his agenda will be like swimming through sand.
Hello,
I’m french, I live in France, and I’m one of the few libertarian there (we just say liberal in France).
Nicolas Sarkozy is not a real liberal and so, if I’m sure he will do a lot of things, I’m not sure he will do the good one.
Anyway, he was a better option than Ségolène Royal.
Hopefully a right-wing French president will do his utmost to scupper the Blair/Merkle plan for a EU constitution by stealth and likewise also scupper Blair’s prayers for his ‘legacy’ as EU President.
Hopefully a right-wing French president will do his utmost to scupper the Blair/Merkle plan for a EU constitution by stealth and likewise also scupper Blair’s prayers for his ‘legacy’ as EU President.
The riots will be from the socialists and those who stand to lose out because their cushy jobs doing nothing are under threat.
The students will march because it threatens their guarenteed jobs for life. They will of course try to ferment trouble in the banlieus, and will probably succeed because due to decades of socialist idiocy those in the banlieus see no future for themselves.
Why all this pessimism?
Judging Sarko by what he says he wants to do – he’s a good man. Probably better than all the past presidents of the Fifth Republic.
He’ll probably try to do what he says.
Will he succeed ?
Let’s hope that he will manage to pass at least some of the reforms he wants. Let’s be optimistic.
All the demonization of Sarkozy as a radical Thatcher equivalent seems to have boosted his popularity. I am not sure what the outcome of another Chirac candidacy would have been, assuming he had been young enough to stand.
It seems to show that there is a significant French constituency who realise what sort of reforms France needs and are willing, for now, to vote for them.
I share with Perry a curiosity as to how it will turn out in the longer term. I fear that when the going gets tough, the French will desert Sarko but, like Thatcher ‘s reforms, if people start to see positive results, Sarkozy may benefit.
Poor Sarko, he will be up aginst the most entrenched and anti democratic and anti liberal bureaucracy in the the western world. If you think Bush’s programs have been sabotaged by the permenent government, (and they have) just wait and see what happens to Sarko.
Within a month I’m sure there will be leaks out of the Palais Elysee about how Sarko eats HAMBURGERS, or similar abominations.
Maybe better that any past president, of any republic.
Any suggestions for a past president or premier in (republican) France that were better ?
There was De Gaulle of course, but not everyone loved him.
Hopefully a right-wing French president will do his utmost to scupper the Blair/Merkle plan for a EU constitution by stealth and likewise also scupper Blair’s prayers for his ‘legacy’ as EU President.
Sarkozy is, unfortunately, distinctively in accord with the Blair/Merkel plan for the stealth constitution. Or rather, he wants a mini-constitution passed by the French parliament, more protection and the creation of a real Fortress Europe, obscured by his vague ‘Meditteranean Union’ nonsense. On this one issue, at least, I would’ve preferred Madame Royal, who promised a referendum on a renegotiated constitution. Sarkozy is a centre-right conservative, much like (in European terms) Merkel and Blair, not a Thatcherite right-wing liberal.
Sarkozy’s Europe would “react” to globalisation by protecting its citizens “just as other countries do”, otherwise “protectionism will triumph and national egotisms will prevail, and the European project will crumble”.
The “European Project” is in very safe hands with M. Sarkozy. Very concerning.
It’s a win win situation for us Brits. Either Sarko cuts the mustard and modernises France, which will be good for everyone, or he doesn’t and France declines further, which won’t be too bad for everyone else.
I very curious to see how this pans out, and I live in France so all the more interesting for me. I am also curious how relations with America could change, if at all. One thing which springs to mind straight away is Turkey and the never ending EU membership chase:
A possible pomme de discorde for future French American relations perhaps.
“I made it very clear to the prime minister [Tayyip Erdogan] I think it’s in the United States’ interests that Turkey join the European Union”. – George Bush, 2006.
“Turkey has no place inside the European Union”. – Nicolas Sarkozy, January 14, 2007.
I look to what happened in Quebec to predict what’s going to happen in France. Quebec shares many of the same problems as France: powerful unions protecting their perks, an extremely left-wing and cliquish press, and a streak of radicalism that runs through every class. Five years ago the new Premier, Jean Charest, attempted to challenge this status quo and was soon facing violent strikes, demonstrations, and a hostile press. His popularity plummeted, and to hang on to power he transformed himself into a typical broker politician.
Sarko looks like he has more backbone than Charest but his challenge is greater. He will face outright sabotage from his foes, who will rather see failure — even for reforms that would benefit everybody — than let him accomplish anything. Will he fold and take the easy route? I hope not, for France’s sake.
But does not Bush have a grudge against Turkey, following the months leading up to the Iraq invasion?
The French are a very proud people. They are proud of their culture and heritage.
It appears the 85% voter turnout – which is very large -indicates that the people are tired of the irrelevance of France on the world stage.
They seem to want France to become a player again.
Well one thing is for sure, a lot more cars will be sold in France in the coming months if last night was anything to go by. It will be interesting to see if he can do anything to change France at all.
But does not Bush have a grudge against Turkey, following the months leading up to the Iraq invasion?
Sorry, a double comment, in the wrong spot and somewhat OT…Anyway, it was a response to WalterBoswell.
Speaking as an American, it would be nice to have a government in France that’s at least a little bit friendly. Seriously, I think most of us want to be friends with the French, but they keep making it so hard.
As for you Brits…I can’t help but see Sarkozy as a huge win for y’all. He may be pro-EU, but I doubt Royal could prevent EU growth.
Everything depends upon the upcoming elections. If Sarkozy picks up more support he may get something done. Otherwise he is unlikely to be effective.
The election is important simply because there is no doubt what Royal would have done. But don’t think this is a mandate for Sarkozy – Royal was a poor opponent and didn’t lose by that much.
I think Sarkozy will have to introduce change in small increments – maybe go to a 38 hour week rather than 40, trim but not end farm subsidies, etc.
Alisa said:
The relationship was put under some strain over the refusal to allow the US attack from the Turkish border. Some US officials are still complaining that the Turks hampered the plan to quickly get rid of Saddam and Co.. On the face of it the Bush administration proclaims that Turkey is a key player in their WOT. In return the Turks want the US to help in cracking down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. So far Bush has not done much in this respect, according to Erdogan anyway.
“We are exchanging information. However, we don’t think it is sufficient. We want [the cooperation] to be taken further.” – Erdogan (2005).
but…
“We will continue to have the same kind of solidarity we’ve had in Turkish-U.S. relations in the past and the future, as well. Our strategic relationship will move and take place in the future as it has been done in the past.” – Erdogan (2005).
So it would appear that for now that any grudges will be put on ice.
It appears the 85% voter turnout – which is very large -indicates that the people are tired of the irrelevance of France on the world stage.
No. It shows they had a clear choice, so more people cared to exercise it. For your theory to hold – assuming for the sake of argument that France is indeed “irrelevant on the world stage” and Royal represented the status quo (the latter more meaningful and plausible) – all the additional turnout would have needed to be on Sarkozy’s side.
Naah. The Nationalists got just over 30% of a 52% turnout, and most of those only voted for them to give Labour a well-deserved kicking. They’re 18 short of a parliamentary majority, and only the Greens (2 seats) agree with them on separation. Salmond (the SNP leader) obviously wrote his victory speech on Wednesday, because there’s no way any objective observer could portray the result as an enthusiastic endorsement of his party’s raison d’etre.
As for Sarkozy, well, I suppose he’ll be better for France, but it’s still France. The enthusiasm for “the European construction” and green nonsense in his victory speech told me all I need to know.
Remember back to 1997
Sarko – young like 1997 Blair
Sarko – promises a new France – just like Blair promised for UK in 1997
Sarko – a new start – just like 97 Blair.
If it walks like a duck…….etc.
It will all end in tears.
I’m not so sure. 6 points is a pretty healthy win – and much of that came from unlikely sources. The victory isn’t going to be as decisive as a lot of us would like precisely because Socialism in France is so entrenched; there are so many riding the government gravy train that any candidate who can manage to win a popular vote saying the things Sarkozy says counts as someone to watch.
It’s true that Royal was a poor opponent. But Sarkozy can and should take this as a clear mandate for change.
The point of view of a french guy (from the “merde”)
According to some article in French newspaper “Liberation” – the productivity of french workers (aka the quantitity of goods produced in a given time) is superior to the british, the german or the japanese – though inferior the the american. A french worker in 2005 produced 71900 dollars of goods, while the english produced 59100 dollars, and the american 81000… (numbers from the French Work Survey Bureau – BLS)
The thing with the ex-imperialist leaders of the world – aka the anglo-saxons – who created this beautiful system of absolute global market and capitalization (we’ll sell our stuff to the whole suburban world!) is that they got used to being slaves to this system, and don’t even think to question or complain anymore (legacy of the 19th century, and yes: Thatcher). That’s what strikes me each time I visit Great Britain – loads of people do crap and not very well paid jobs in some kind of enthusiastic and disciplined way (though not as much as the Chinese, sure, but the time will come). One has to be realistic when facing the question of globalization, I guess… But most of the company bosses I’ve met and observed have made profit the only reality, and just sweep their asses off with the people working for them (though I would admit that the public service jobs are not much better for that).
I am not a socialist anymore, and as someone working hard for the love of work – more than for the love of profit – I am inclined to the Samizdata’s individualistic point of view… But hell – there are so many bastards around here using the tools of capitalism to exploit and vampirize the lives of good-willed workers – just because they can. Ayn Rand was realistic, all right. But the human destiny and psyche is not only about facts and hard matter – it is also about imagination, empathy, and a sense of the collective – there no such thing as a “spontaneous lone thinking mind”. Gadgets, technology and isolation through interactive entertainement is not a viable future – it is a civilizational form of suicide – initiated by these sad people from the northern rainy countries. It is quite naturally illogical to someone from a mediterranean background (like mine).
This post was not really related to the topic, but hey, I voted for the other one, Segolene Royal, because I don’t believe that the British ot the American were better off after Reagan or Thatcher – you people just accepted to be treaded on, in some kind of disciplined “clever” way. The French are not (were not) clever and disciplined – for a while, they just wanted to protect what we call “life quality” – that means a quality which has nothing to do with economy or profit, which is just about enjoying the real, non-virtual, non “disneyland” world… It seems that from now on, we’re going to join the big sterile “Mondo Luna Park”, the Entertainement Technocracy of the World. But I’ll be out in the woods with an axe.
Greetings
A bit premature to write Sarkozy off as a Blair clone, wouldn’t you say?
All newly elected (and lots of re-elected) political leaders spout the kind of bumpf mentioned in the not-enormously-revealing parallels you detected – not just 1997 Blair and President-elect Sarkozy.
James,
Five times! Just make sure you don’t do the samewhile looking in a mirror on the Candyman thread!
Like Hokie Pundit said, I think most Americans want to be friends with the French…we actually have a rather long and amicable history together, but they often make it rather difficult. (I suspect its a simple matter of conflicting egos.)
I think that much of the “cheese eating surrender monkey” talk a few years ago was prompted by a tremendous sense of let-down. France is (was???) a pillar of the Western world and we (Americans) think of the French as being (more-or-less) on the same team. Contrary to what has been said in frustration, anger, etc by Americans…if France should ever need our help again, we’ll be there for them.
So…that was a long way of saying that I’m quite happy to see Sarkozy elected and my best wishes for his presidency and for all of his countrymen.
I can’t shake the feeling that Sarkozy’s win isn’t actually a triumph. I have a feeling that my non-existent French cousin, Le Poisson du Sol, feels mostly like he just barely jumped out of the way of an out-of-control truck, but he’s still standing in the middle of a busy freeway.
I’m not tickled with some of Sarkozy’s statements on non-economic matters. He was probably the best that could realistically happen in France in 2007, but I don’t think mon cousine is deriving much comfort from that.