Peter Diamandes of X-Prize fame (who I have know since he was an MIT student) gave the first public announcement of an idea he is working on at the Saturday night banquet. Peter, like many others at our conference, has little faith in NASA. Specifically he does not believe they will even get to Mars any time soon, let alone settle it. Peter is creative and has proven his ability to make things happen, so his idea on a funding strategy has more likelihood of crossing the dream bridge than the hot air of many sources.
It will cost billions to settle Mars, even if the known financial incompetency of the State is replaced by private, market based operations. Peter will be looking for persons of ‘supercredibility’ to do the kick off to raising funds by signing up 100,100 persons for the Mars settlement project. There will be different levels within that group; some will put in $100 thousand or even $1 million; the majority will put up perhaps $10 thousand or so each. I did not write fast enough to get the exact split, but it adds up to $2 billion. At 15% interest from investment it will not take very long to turn this into the $8 billion needed to make it happen. By the time he is ready to go, there will be a lot of private hardware for hire so he does not have to pay for the special multi-billion dollar hardware development projects which NASA always has to paste on the side. Once the project is ready to go, the 100,100 members will each have their name placed into a lottery where each has an equal chance, 1 in 1001, of winning. These will be ‘The First Hundred’ as in Kim Stanley Robinson’s ‘Red Mars’ novel. Unlike in the novel they will not go in one big international spaceship, but rather in small groups.
This is a risky mission and people will probably die. Peter asked for a show of hands and asked how many people in the room would volunteer at even outrageously high risk levels of 1 in 3 or even 1 in 2. Over half, yours truly included, raised their hands. Pioneering ain’t dead in my circle of friends.
Oh. By the way. I forgot to mention… It is a one way trip.
Well, you got cojones, Dale, I’ll give you that!
Will there be levels for lesser amounts (say $1000) and is there a website yet for this venture?
Toryboy: Depends how you look at it. If you suddenly had the opportunity to actually do something that has been the core of your lifeling answer to the question ‘What is my life about?’ Then the risk is more acceptable than failing to achieve that goal.
Joe: There is nothing yet. We were given a preview of an idea that has not even been ‘launched’ yet. When it is, I am sure it will be out there big time.
“…$2 billion. At 15% interest from investment it will not take very long to turn this into the $8 billion”
Well eleven years actually if you do the sums.
And on what planet can you achieve a 15% return consistently over an eleven-year period?
Someone is on Mars already methinks.
Such a venture would depend on the reputation of the person who organized it.
Both the potential for fraud and the potential for honest failure are obvious.
Also the amount of money in private hands (real private hands – rather than politically connected fractional reserve banks and the dependent corporations) is fairly small (in relation to the size of the economy).
Savings rates are very low, and most people are deep in debt (although escaping to Mars would be one way of getting away from one’s creditors).
The above having been said.
Good Luck!
If I had no family or commitments I’d be up for such a venture like a shot. Good for you Dale, and thanks for all these posts.
Where do I sign?
No kidding. Mean time, which extra degree to pick up in order to make myself sufficiently useful once I’m there? Medievalists ain’t exactly going to be in demand no matter how many old crafts they understand, and teachers are a non-issue w/o tons of kids on the ground.
Regarding money, if you can’t pony up 10k… you probably aren’t ready to make that shot. That’s financing a lower-end car… if you’re willing to maybe get killed on Mars, working a second job to finance the trip should be considered a minimal “statement of intent.”
I want to be in the first 50,000! I mean, once there’s a decent coffee shop and a decent Internet connection…
Methinks Bruce would have stayed in the pubs of Cambridge until the USA was formed…
And that’s cool — I’m not sure how early my wife will let me be among the pack, either, and we’ll need friendly folks supporting us in the main population back on Terra… after all, at least some of the early materials we would want to have around ought to start coming from waves three through fifteen, particularly tourists, bartering stuff. How does a small areolith painting compare in value to a dozen hawaiian shirts?
Russ Mitchell — You are being frivolous over paintings and things. You should first ask if they have Indians there who are willing to barter turkeys and corn. I hope one gets a 14 day cooling off period after signing up for a one-way mission.
Some persons are born to take pleasure from being scornful; others are born to be pioneers. I know with whom I prefer to be surrounded.
Yep, Dale, no kidding.
Freeman, actually, one of the immediate challenges, directly after establishing short-term survival capacity, will be the establishment of something resembling an economy in order to produce the myriad of things that are better purchased than locally produced — this is a direct lesson of communal experiments and colony histories. Colonies that try to produce everything from the get-go don’t do very well.
Let’s hope Dale and his fellow “First Hundred” pioneers aren’t a bunch of socialist whack jobs with a few token evil capitalists thrown in as in Kim Robinsons Red Mars. Still a good book though if you can forgive Robinsons economic naivety.