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Not a good time to be a chicken A year ago, a headline like this was pure comedy. And this Evening Standard headline that I snapped last night even now has a slightly comic, Carry On Farming feel to it.
Alas, bird flu seems to be getting rather serious.
Governments thrive on infectious diseases, because only governments, or institutions that are very hard to distinguish from governments, can contain them. Which is why I always suspect that such “pandemics” (pandemic seems now to be the regular word for an “epidemic”) tend to be somewhat exaggerated. But if I were a politician, I would never dare to say such a thing.
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Not that serious. More people have died from Cartoon Flu (40) than Bird Flu (19) this year.
The danger at present isn’t bird flu as such, it’s a person with some other kind of flu getting bird flu and the two strains metamorphising into something (with a 25% or more fatality rate) that can pass from person to person (which bird flu apparently can’t at present).
I’d say caution (not panic) is called for. It’s certainly a serious (if not probable) threat.
I saw a headline — cannot say which paper — stating that organic farmers were getting worried that their free-range birdies would be confined to barracks for the duration. Such is life.
Bird flu is actually a virus developed by the Israelis to damage the genes of Arabs, first seeded in the Far East to throw people off the Zionist trail.
Come on Samiz, keep up.
Is there ever a good time to be a chicken? And it’s still true in the US that more people have been killed in Ted Kennedy’s car than by the bird flu.
An “epidemic” is a local event. “Cambridge has an epidemic of people convinced folks to the right of Che are fascists.”
A “pandemic” is an epidemic over a very large area. “A pandemic of fear and uncertainty swept the globe after last week’s Olympic Figure Skating debacle”
Pommygranate, I believe the cartoon flu death toll is now up to 45. Not enough, admittedly, but better than nothing.
I think bird flu is false alarm. Remember SARS? Where did that go? Remember the ebola virus that was going to hop continents and turn us all into wood? (I believe it migrated as far as the Middle East, though, and attacked brains.) A couple of years ago, I read an account of a Vietnamese man whose brother had died of bird flu and he got it, too. Unlike his brother, he raced off to hospital and lived to tell the tale.
Pommygranate … I thought you were making it up about Israelis developing a secret biological weapon to wreck Arab genes. Then I went to your link! For anyone who didn’t follow the link, here is a taster paragraph:
“According to the Times, Israeli scientists are trying to identify genes characteristic to Arabs and then develop viruses that attack these genes. The newspaper said the program is being carried out at the Institute for Biological Research in Nes Tsiona near Tel Aviv.”
I think, according to the laws of probability, it is far more likely that failed nation states that cannot cope with the pandemic (like Syria) will see the first strain of H5N1 that is transmittable between humans.
We should be more concerned about hundreds of thousands of infected people coming to our countries for help than about a few dead ducks in our ponds.
Verity, as is sadly so often the case, misses the key threats and points. Even with relatively rapid and good hospital treatment of H5N1, the mortality rate is pretty high for a flu virus. Also, like other major threats, rather than picking off kids and elderly people, it seems to actually be worse for heathly people in the prime of life – one of the worst aspects of the 1918 pandemic.
We’re long overdue for another flu pandemic, I hope we can dodge it as long as possible as the economic cost is likely to be pretty high.
It is truly remarkable the powers that public-health authorities once had. In America in the era from roughly 1890-1960. public-health authorities could enter any area or structure without warrant or oversight, quarantine people, buildings and communities, compel medical testing and forcibly hospitalize anyone.
During that era, people knew that micro-organisms caused disease but they didn’t have effective antibiotics or vaccines. Preventing communication was the only means of stopping disease and broad powers were granted to make that possible. It would be scary to see that kind power come back.
Shannon, that kind of power will certainly come back. And this time, they won’t be so soft as to give it up when danger is past.
Bird flu, I guess, is an example of the rule which says the state must always have something to scare us with, and now that global warming is obstinately refusing to come true, well, bring on the next one.
Naturally there will be draconian new powers to regulate chicken-keeping, with licences, inspectors, etc etc. And equally naturally, those regulations will never be repealed.
“We should be more concerned about hundreds of thousands of infected people coming to our countries for help than about a few dead ducks in our ponds.”
“Bird flu, I guess, is an example of the rule which says the state must always have something to scare us with…”
For goodness sake, get real. This is a serious threat that has nothing to do with government and everything to do with the natural world.
RNA-based viruses like HIV, and ebola etc all began as diseases that infected animals and later mutated to infect people in transmissable forms. The death of animals from these diseases that have also infected people should be taken extremely seriously since prediction of viral mutations in the wild is so difficult as to be virtually no better than astrology.
Surely we should stop distinguishing viruses that kill animals from viruses that kill people – many of the most serious viruses do both and have an unmeasured capacity to do so on a large scale. We dismiss the mass death of poultry at our own risk for such death indicates an increased quantity of these pathogens and thus greater possibilities for viral mutation.
From: Admiral Featherstonehaugh,
Commanding Rooster, Stalag Coopenhagen
It is the duty of all Chickens in enemy hands to try to escape. Your officers will shortly be crowing their plans to you. Cooperation is compulsory! Each escapee will be issued with a biological warfare kit with which to lay waste to the enemy’s lands. And remember: no eggs for oppressors!
Is there ever a good time to be a chicken? And it’s still true in the US that more people have been killed in Ted Kennedy’s car than by the bird flu.
Slav. See Robert Speirs’ identical post near the top. What was the point?
We’re long overdue for another flu pandemic, I hope we can dodge it as long as possible as the economic cost is likely to be pretty high.
1. Possibly one is overdue. But it will be a pandemic only when it is transmitted person-to-person not bird-to-person. To hybridise with human flu is going to require people living really close to poultry of which there are proportionately fewer in the world than ever. It is not going to happen in Britain. Or anywhere west of Ankara. Maybe it is less likely than ever before, because people everywhere have the opportunity to be less close to ducks and chickens.
Killing birds in areas with flu present doesn’t do any good to people except where people are actually in danger of catching it from them. (Speculation: it is possible it is even counterproductive by retarding natural attenuation of the virus.)
2. You’re worried about a pandemic because of the economic cost? Aren’t you just slightly worried by the idea of lots of people dying?
From Richard Herring’s blog:
Did the scientists actually call for the birds to be “locked up”? Is there any need, once chickens are inside, to lock the door. Surely just closing the door will be enough. They are birds and with the best will in the world do not have the ability to open even an unlocked door. To be honest they probably wouldn’t even have the imagination to try. The film Chicken Run is not an accurate depiction of chickens or their abilities. Isn’t it more likely that the scientists said “Keep your chickens indoors for a bit,” perhaps adding for exceptionally thick farmers, “Make sure you keep the doors and windows closed at all times though because chickens could get outside or diseased birds could fly in.”
OMFG! Bird Flu Will Kill Us All!!!!
Give out the ‘B’ ark boarding passes right now!!
We will be following right behind you just as soon as we can!
zmollusc – Boarding passes for the world’s species? I want to turn left when I board the ark, and sit up front with the cats. All of them! Sprawling around on other people’s seats, regardless of ownership of that seat, and napping, stretched out, on other people’s cushions because no cat has ever recognised the ownership of a cushion unless the cat holds the title on it.
The dogs/canines would, of course, turn right and settle in nicely.
Yes, Or anywhere west of Ankara. Maybe it is less likely than ever before, because people everywhere have the opportunity to be less close to ducks and chickens.