The occasional refrain here at Samizdata is that we are relentlessly pessimistic. Even though the recent series on Burt Rutan’s space adventure was anything but, our political writings rarely highlight good news. Alrighty then, two items that should brighten your long-term outlook for liberty:
First, Mark Steyn reviews recent history in Latin America and notes how it might apply to the Middle East.
If you think the democratization of Arabia is a long shot, so was the democratization of Latin America. But it happened.
Second, the Iraqis are showing more spine than most, maintaining confidence in their pending government in hte face of terrorist brutality.
The first survey since the new government was announced by U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi about three weeks ago showed that 68 percent of Iraqis have confidence in their new leaders. The numbers are in stark contrast to widespread disillusionment with the previous Iraqi Governing Council, which was made up of 25 members picked by the United States and which served as the Iraqi partner to the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority.
Connect the dots.
The new Iraq gov. has been a triumph of psy-ops properly done. In particular, they have maintained a constant appearance of wrong-footing the US and being one step ahead of it. They are also making assertive proclamations of their own rather than toeing the line. Either it’s all real or they are putting on a planned act (I suspect that latter) but either way, they’re impressively competent at it. Well done them.
Well, I guess 68% approval isn’t such bad news, though I’m not so sure that this should lead us to be optimistic generally about the overall mess in Iraq. The level of trust Iraqis have for the US is at an all time low, and nothing is really going to change insofar as our involvement in Iraq anytime soon. The long term prospects for stability and democracy in Iraq IMO remain very bleak, and the threat of civil war remains a very real possibility. While I intially supported the removal of Saddam Hussein, I still think the way the Bush administration handled Iraq, both pre and postwar, is a fantastic example in how not to do things. I fear that at the end of the day, we will have done much more harm than good, both for ourselves, for the region (the ME) and the world at large. Its time to get back to the war on “terrorism”, or rather the war on Qaeda, as chimpy should have called it.
Mussels – we are not at war with al Qaeda alone, we are at war with the entire Islamoterrorist complex. Picking out AQ is like going after one Mafia family and ignoring all the rest.
As for how Iraq has gone – the major combat ops went brilliantly well. I don’t see how anyone can argue that. There is no military challenge to the US on the ground in Iraq at all. The only problems are political (not to minimize them, but lets keep them in perspective).
On the political front, the Hussein dynasty is done for. Outside of the Baathist triangle, things are pretty peaceful and quite a bit of local administration has been handed over. The handover to indigenous Iraqis is on schedule.
There is no meaningful opposition to the Americans that is not either (a) imported or (b) Baathist bitter-enders. The Iranian and Syrian proxies had their first counteroffensive decisively repulsed. What we are seeing now is the A team from Lebanon doing their worst, and we see that the Iraqis are not toeing the line.
About South America and democracy – have a look at this article from the NY Times. Things are not so simple, and Mark Stein’s knowledge of South America is skimpy. Democarcy was never a success there in the past, and seems also at present, democratic governments were weak, corrupt, populist and totally irresponsible. Military dictatorship came to power to save the states from bankruptcy and chaos caused by the politicians’ utter incompetence. Some military dictatorships did well, others were just as bad, corrupted and incompetent as the democratic ones.
Some economic ups and downs ocured under military regimes just as they did under democratic ones. It matters not so much how a regime came to power, what matters it how it performs, what it does. Democracy doesn’t have a good track record there.
About Iraq’s new government – don’t assign too much meaning to some dubious surveys. Seems the new government is powerless and meaningless, except as a PR stunt. Maybe they will manage to build some security forces to take control of Iraq and repell the extremists, but it is a process that will, at best, take many months or years, and it’s outcome is far from clear. At this moment nobody can say how things will turn out.
A good dose of pessimism is in order.
Regarding South America and Democracy, interesting piece here on the wave of Protestantism sweeping South America and the subsequent implications for the development of true democracy:
Protestantism in South America
The Difference between liberal western style democracy and democracy in Iraq is that in the west there is a consensus for the democratic process. When the Conservatives were faced with defeat in 1997, they didn’t rig the elections, stage a violent coup or take up arms. I think we are heading for a Mugabe style democracy in Iraq – corruption, oppression, stagnation and then finally dictatorship.
Optimists are simply pessimists who don’t know what is going on.
Steyn is right, Latin America (to include Central as well as South) is much more democratic than it was 20 years ago. Countries like Nicaragua and El Salvador have regular elections that go fairly well. It has been a long haul and there were lots of obstacles (inc marxists in the Catholic Church) but they are getting there.
Pessimists would be optimists if they could see the big picture.
I am taking this poll with a grain of salt. Considering what happened to folks who spoke out or disagreed with the last government of Iraq, I would be a bit enthusiastic with my support of the new one.
I don’t know if Allawa is a good guy or not. Nobody does until after he takes power. And I don’t blame the Iraqis for supporting him now, especially in light of what a lack of enthusaism could get you in the past.
I hope things go well, and I would like to believe this poll. But considering Iraqi’s past, I am going to wait and see.