And quite eminent men to boot:
A powerful cross-party group of peers will seek today to begin a national debate on whether Britain should stay in the European Union by demanding a parliamentary investigation into the economic benefits of membership.
Their action reflects a growing feeling in the House of Lords that withdrawal from the EU might be preferable to signing up to a new European constitution that would erode British sovereignty.
They may not get the debate they want as it is highly likely to be scuppered. Even if they get the debate they want it may not produce the result they want. And even if it does produce the result they want said result will have no legal or political effect whatsoever.
But it will have an effect, albeit a marginal one.
To date, the idea of British withdrawal from the EU has been unthinkable in any respectable circles. It is the Great British Political Taboo. Discuss our relations with Europe by all means and criticise the EU if you must but suggest we pull out?!! Are you mad?
But the problem with taboos of this nature is that they will not bend so they can only break and it only takes a few people to start thinking the unthinkable before they begin to look fragile. If people start saying the unthinkable (and keep saying it) then it is only a matter of time before the cracks begin to appear.
We are not there yet. Not even close. But if more people just keep talking publicly about withdrawal then that emboldens others to do the same and eventually the drip, drip effect begins to eat away at the consensus. What starts as a few whispered heresies can grow into a chorus of raucous disapproval.
So, more and faster please.
Mehopes that France and Germany will emerge scot-free later this month despite their complete disregard for the “Stability Pact”; perhaps that will add some ammo…er, kindling to the UK debate.
The thought of Britain, with her long, proud history of freedom, signing the EU Constitution drives me to despair. The heroic efforts of her ancestors in seeing off past European tyrants will have been for nought! Is Napoleon to have the last laugh?
Unless the UK is willing to at least examine the possibility of life outside the EU, it has no credibility in its negotiations over the future of that organization. Otherwise the Franco-German axis will just say “tax harmonization? It’s going to happen whether you approve it or not. What are you going to do about it?”
Forgive my American ignorance, but what the heck does “scuppered” mean?
David,
Actually, this may all come to pass by christmas this year and will be determined by the Bush Administration in DC.
With the Froggie-Kraut Axis set to impose massive rises on import duties for US goods and services entering the EU sometime early next month, with Washington most likely to retailate, I rather suspect the British may well side with the Americans. Couple this with the continuing decline in support amongst the British in general to change their currency over to the EUro we may well see the Lords getting their outcome without ANY inquiry.
This of course bodes well for next year as a new theatrical play takes centre stage in the remake of “The Three Musketters” starring Britian, Spain and Italy.
Scuppered = Sunk
“With the Froggie-Kraut Axis set to impose massive rises on import duties for US goods and services entering the EU sometime early next month, with Washington most likely to retailate…”
Shaun,
I rather think that Bush will repeal the steel tariffs using the WTO/EU as political cover. He can tell the Rust Belt voters he did his best while still minimizing the damage to the US economy.
Mike in Ca,
I beg to differ with you on this in a number of areas.
This oncoming trade war is an electoral winner for President George Bush and the Republicans as it will muster an increasing number of Democratic voters in the manufacturing and related sectors because President Bush will be seen as a man of action in supporting their continued employment and manufacturing as a whole in the US.
This will remove a major drawcard from the Democratic party’s playbook.
The Froggies and to a lesser extent the Continentals in general are now paying market prices for Oil which is slowly suffercating their Petro-Chemical based industries.
Many large Kraut based multinationals like Bosch, Siemens, BMW, Mercedes-Benz etc would find it crippling to have the EU start a trade war as much of their North American Products are destined for the EU.
Since most of your patent covered medicines are produced in the US, do you think these will be affected ?? :-()
In the long term Boeing would be a major beneficiary as US sales of Flying Renaults would cease, eventually forcing Flying Renaults out of business as the Froggie Government would collapse under the economic strain of continuing to prop them up……which they are going to in the long run anyway.
If you take the time to look you find that Froggie exports, especially tourism, have taken a nosedive in the past 12 months and showing no signs of recovery, but we see a continuing upward demand for things “American” on the continent in general.
In the event that the EU slaps on this trade war the question arises as to how this upward demand for things “American” is satisfied ?? Easy answer really, through Britian, Spain and Italy….the 3 countries that are at a “distance” from the EU bureaucracy and most likely to bolt.
If people start saying the unthinkable (and keep saying it) then it is only a matter of time before the cracks begin to appear.
Happy to do my bit. PULL OUT OF THE EU! NOW!
R C Dean: Me too! OUT NOW!!
Well in the Tory Party it used to be a no-no, even amoung the most ardent sceptics to even contemplate a pull-out. Now it is being said publically at fringe meetings sponsored by groups such as Bruges Group and the CWF. The meme has escaped and there is nowt that the government can do about it.
First, the steel-tarriffs are an unmitigated disaster for Bush:
a) He’ll have to get rid of them one way or the other, losing a lot of whatever goodwill he got for slapping them on in the first place.
b) Price of steel up: lose jobs in swing states => lose votes in swing states
c) The EU can, and will, target the tariffs at swing-state economies, so as to help send Bush back to Texas.
Secondly: Leaving the EU – not going to happen. Not in a million gazillion bagillion years. Dream on. An IF you do, IF, you can say goodbye to your free-market in Europe, a rather large trading partner eh? Like I said, in your wet dreams.
oh, and
d) He’s already lost the support of a lot of consciencentous libertarians who don’t like the steel tarriffs or the increases in farm subsidies which they view as electoral pandring of the most brazen sort.
IRONIC, eh?
Max M: Secondly: Leaving the EU – not going to happen. Not in a million gazillion bagillion years. Dream on. An IF you do, IF, you can say goodbye to your free-market in Europe, a rather large trading partner eh? Like I said, in your wet dreams.
How do you figure that? To describe the EU as a free trade area is bizarre… it is a heavily regulated trade area to which the UK has access. That is not the same thing at all.
The UK economy is so large and important to the EU that the EU needs to trade with the UK as much as the UK needs to trade with them, with all the political implications that brings if the UK decides to cut the regulatory cord… plus a bigger chunk of UK trade is export oriented outside the EU than other EU country. The facts are that the EU is in no position to dictate trading terms to the UK any more than they can to the USA. The EU simply cannot affort to ‘lock out’ Britain without wreaking huge damage to their own economies. Aint gonna happen.
Also leaving the EU makes it possible for the UK to enter into bilateral trade agreements with NAFTA to more than off-set any problems with any irrational EU actions.
The UK economy is so large and important to the EU that the EU needs to trade with the UK as much as the UK needs to trade with them
Agreed! The UK has a trade deficit with the EU. While I don’t think that is a problem, mainland European exporters are not going to want to lose the British Consumer so they would have to keep the trade window open even if Britain left the EU. Besides, I think there is much to be gained by the first political party that says membership of the EU is not a matter of principle and if we don’t get our way in negotiations we will leave. I just don’t understand the mentality of anyone who would go into a negotiation having first ruled out the option of walking away from the whole deal.
Max – In addition to what Perry and John have said, which are very substantial points, the fact is, it is very handy for the Europeans to have a friendly Anglophone country on their doorstep. It opens up a lot of other doors. If we decided to walk away, there would be a lot of scorn for “insular” (read independent) Britain, America’s lapdog, blah blah blah – but talk’s cheap. Tradewise, it wouldn’t make a shred of difference. And we would be dictating the terms under which we live our own lives.
Max, I think you’re a little off.
Well, I doubt he got any goodwill in the first place. He was courting the unions, which are all lining up, as they always have, behind one of two Democratic candidates. It was a stupid move politically in the first place – all cost (pissed off the free traders, as you note) with no benefit.
Everyone who cares knows that the tariffs cost more jobs than they saved. If the EU gives Bush a face-saving way to back out, then they probably did him a favor. Dropping the tariffs will likely increase jobs in swing states, but the connection between jobs and tariffs is so obscure it won’t drive any votes. Any pickup in jobs (or loss of jobs) from the steel tariffs will likely be swamped by the overall recovery.
If the EU insists on a trade war, it will be a winner for Bush, not a loser. Are you seriously proposing that the EU will target its tariffs at Michigan, but not New York? How will they do that?
If the EU is seen to do so, they will drive union members and other “Reagan Democrats” into the Bush camp in droves. Like good Jacksonians, they will be much more pissed at the EU for sticking its nose in, than at Bush for fumbling trade policy.
I would expect the US economy can withstand a trade war better than the EU can. I doubt the EU is doing more than bluffing, giving Bush cover to dump his stupid steel tariffs.
The steel tariffs are a piece of ephemera, only important for the passing moment. The EU is forever (until it falls apart, but that could be a long, long time) and we’ve got to get out while we can. This is a very grave issue.
Does anyone have any thoughts about Spain, by the way? They, in a sense, are in the same position as us. They have a gigantic former empire which speaks their language and with whom they share massive trade. I believe they’re the biggest internet users on the continent (not per capita-wise, but population-wise). Spanish is the second or third largest language employed on the internet – depending on where Chinese is. They’re a monarchy. They’re energetic and business-oriented – powering way ahead of France. Do you think if we go, Spain might be tempted to do likewise? I don’t know the figures, but I suspect, like us, given Central and South America, they do most of their trade outside the EU. Does anyone know off-hand?
Another similarity is, through their connection with Mexico, they might be as welcome to join NAFTA as we might be, if they go. Now that, to my mind, is an interesting scenario.
Are you seriously proposing that the EU will target its tariffs at Michigan, but not New York? How will they do that.
By imposing sanctions on critical industries in critical swing states: Florida citrus, textiles made in the Southeast, Harleys made in PA, WI and MO.
As for saying that tarrifs are epemeral: steel and steel consumers are important rust-belt industries. A lot of steel consumers are very, very angry at Bush, and they’re organising – they’ve lost “$680 million in capital and labor returns since the tariffs were put into place, according to International Trade Commission numbers”
And if you think the steel producers won’t scream bloody murder, think again.
Finally, trade wars – Bush can’t afford to do it. The EU can hope to be joined by other steel-making nations Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Norway, New Zealand and Switzerland. Election year remember? He simply can’t afford it.
Bush pandered, hoping it’d help him out in the elections for Congress, and now its backfiring. All I can say is I’m enjoying the show – and I’m gonna enjoy even more when Bush explains why he’s giving in to the surrender monkies!
oh, here’s a link to everybodies favourite new-source.
Anyway, I’ll just say this again, Britain is not going to leave the EU. Look at Howards cabinet – ‘where are all the euro-skeptics gone, long time ago?’ Even the conservatives realise by now that this sort of hard-line euro-skepticism is an out-and-out loser; a recipe for internecine warfare. Ain’t gonna happen!
Max M,
Bush is in a win-win situation here. He has already shown the steel workers his support, but the EU trade sanction will make further tariffs impossible, which makes me as a libertarian happy. So they will be ceased. And best of all, he can blame it on the despicable frogs. It is a predictable outcome, and a clear political winner for Bush.
According the the massive Pew Research poll recently released, Republican voter identification has heavily increased in PA, MI, and other states with manufacturing bases. Bush will carry them easily in 2004.
And finally, to think that Ultra-Republican South Carolina will vote for Southern-basher Howard Dean or any other Democrat is ridiculous. Not a single state in the south will vote Democratic in the upcoming presidential election.
Just for your benefit Max M:
Britain should effect and immediate withdrawal from the European Union.
Max – Britain will leave the European Union, and sooner rather than later. Only the socialists want it. The intelligent people are all on the other side. Socialists have’t run anything successfully in the history of the world. Socialists haven’t devised anything the rest of humankind will go along with willingly in the history of the world. Socialism only prevails by force. That is why we have to get out before they start introducing force.
Britain remain in the EU? Ain’t gonna happen.
Max M,
Lost in all the rhetoric is the primary reason the Bush Administration put the Steel Tarriffs in place in the first instance, that being to give the steel producers time and money to upgrade their plant and equipment, which is the real reason the Froggies etc are really POed, because these improvements for the US Steel Producers are leading to much higher productivity from their plants resulting in substantually reduced costs per ton produced…achivements which are unobtainable within the EU.
New Zealand a steel-making nation ??…..man are you blowing some “good shit” up your nose !
Japan, South Korea and Brazil’s number ONE trading partner is the USA.
The EU lives in hope that it can fool most of the people all of the time.
Preliminary polling data out of the “Left Coast” since Arnie’s landslide indicates that President Bush will carry California. Now Max, if that data continues to hold up through March, albeit with some help from Jack “the Nazi” Chirak, next year you will be able to Watch President Bush stride up to the victory podiumn with a broom in hand.
BTW, Harley-Davidson survives tody in excellent health because a few years back they were given a couple of years of tariff protection to get their house in order.
When the ten new countries join the EU next year there will be rejoicing throughout Europe. I suspect it will not last very long. I have two mutually exclusive scenarios as to why not.
1) The new entrants will successfully attract millions of jobs eastward, exacerbating stagnation in the west.
2) EU regulations will strangle struggling transition economies creating greater unemployment and unrest in the east. (One potential outlet could be for millions to emigrate to the UK)
I favour scenario two, but whichever happens, the Brussels elite are unlikely to emerge unscathed.
Shaun – “Lost in all the rhetoric is the primary reason the Bush Administration put the Steel Tarriffs in place …”. The “rhetoric” was people discussing the point of the thread: the emergence of a national debate about whether Britain should remain in the EU, or get out. Why Prez Bush and his steel tariffs got thrown into a debate on Britain’s future as a nation I can’t quite figure …
Scuppered
Not so much sunk, as thrown overboard. To wit:
Definition: Scup”per, n. [OF. escopir, escupir, to spit, perhaps for escospir, L. ex + conspuere to spit upon; pref. con- + spuere to spit. Cf. {Spit}, v.] (Naut.)
An opening cut through the waterway and bulwarks of a ship, so that water falling on deck may flow overboard;
Seems too good to be true that the UK would pull out of the EU. I hope it comes to pass so the UK doesn’t have to take part in the suicide that is the EU.
Many of my family died while fighting in Britain’s many wars so her people would remain free. It’s been horrid watching the UK surrender her sovereignty to a bunch of bureaucrats.
I believe the EU will eventually sink under its own bloat. I’d rather the UK avoid this inevitable event.
Think of all the unaccounted-for money the UK will save from not sending it to Brussells.