A scientific opinion poll has been carried out in Iraq for the first time. The results are about what one should expect, given the situation. That is to say, the media image of the situation is pretty bogus. Iraqis by and large want the Coalition to stay just long enough for them to get their country standing on its’ own feet. A large percentage, especially among the majority Shiites, want no part of a religious state. Most Iraqis are fairly positive towards America and Americans but not uncritically so. The population appears to be very secular for that part of the world.
There appears very little danger any of our nightmare scenarios will happen. Baathists will be tried and punished. There seems little desire for amnesty towards the managers of 35 years of brutality in the Iraqi public’s heart. Osama is personna non-gratis by a super-majority. Iran is not their favoured model for their future, not even among the southern Shiites.
Iraq may not end up a democracy; but it will probably not end up a disaster. I think these people will sort themselves out just fine.
In a few years it will be a very friendly place for American and British tourists to visit.
I plan to be one of them.
All this may well be true. However, “the trouble is”, as has often been noted, many local people will say what they guess they are supposed to say.
I most recently heard this from some British soldiers interviewed on B.B.C. Radio 4 – now yes indeed the B.B.C. are liars, but I have often heard this sort of thing before (from other sources – not the B.B.C.).
“Yes I love you all dearly” says the local to the opinion poll taker, “yes I will kill the Franks tomorrow” the same man says to his visiter in the middle of the night.
When much of the Royal Family (and many other people) were mutilated and killed in Iraq in 1958 the Royal Yacht happened to be abroad. According to a Englsh witness the crew cried and screamed with every indication of sincerity.
And then (when they had been talked to by supporters of the coup) the crew cheered and shouted with joy – again with every indication of sincerity.
Where the crew expressing their true feelings the first time and then expressing false feelings out of fear? Or were they expressing grief out of a feeling that they would be expected to and then expressing their true feelings when told that they could?
Or were the crew expressing their true feelings both before and after they were talked to? Being able to change what they felt to be in line with the balance of advantage?
Who knows.
I have cooled (to put it mildly) on the wild spending Mr Bush, but I am still no supporter of the “Red-Brown” alliance against him (the Communists of the Guardian and the Fascists of the Daily Mail – with their doctrine that 9/11 was a Bush plot organised as an excuse to attack the Middle East).
So I hope the Bush-Blair adventure in Iraq goes well – but I would warn against taking seriously anything the locals say.
Problem.
Man with clip-board knocks on the door, escorted by a humvee load of heavily-armed Marines.
Man with clip-board: “Hello, I’m from ACME market research, these gentlemen are my protection. I’m here to ask for your views about the coalition force occupation.”
Local resident:”…”
Me: I would give the exact answers the pollsters wanted to hear, inflected with just enough ‘independence’ of thought to make it credible.
There is every indication neither of you read the Opinion Journal article. The methodology for getting accurate readings was assisted by people familiar with the problems of doing so in Eastern Europe; and the poll was done by Zogby, nothing to do with the military at all.
I suggest reading before commenting.
Dale Amon writes:
“Iraqis by and large want the Coalition to stay just long enough for them to get their country standing on its’ own feet. A large percentage, especially among the majority Shiites, want no part of a religious state. […] The population appears to be very secular for that part of the world.
There appears very little danger any of our nightmare scenarios will happen […]
Iraq may not end up a democracy; but it will probably not end up a disaster. I think these people will sort themselves out just fine.”
Sure – these people will “sort themselves out just fine”. They will “sort themselves out” Muslim style: with blood along the happy highway. Firstly there is no such thing as the ‘Iraqi people’. The Iraqi people is a social construction with knobs on. There are at least three ‘peoples’: the Kurds, The Sunnis, the Shiites. In other words, Iraq is a fine old ‘multicultural’ and ‘multiracial’ society, which means that once the lid is off the inhabitants will start doing what all such societies do when given a chance: slaughtering one another in the name of the Lord. Witness Yugoslavia; witness almost all countries whose name ends in -stan.
Forget questionnaires — whatever the majority may believe, it’s the minority of fanatics that call the shots, always. Most ‘ordinary decent people’ in Northern Ireland also wanted ‘peace’. Look what happened over thirty years! Forget ‘ordinary decent people’.
History is made by assholes, not by the nice guys who fill in questionnaires and tell you what you want to hear. And there are plenty of assholes in Iraq, just rearin’ to go.
So here’s my wager: next summer, when I visit my retired aunt in Andersonstown, West Belfast, I’ll bring along a free bottle of Glenlivet for Dale Amon if there haven’t been at least 10000 (ten thousand) violent deaths in Iraq by 1 August 2004. Dale doesn’t have to reciprocate — I’m sure that, deep down, he doesn’t really believe his own wishful thinking.
Dale – you’re whistling in the dark.
You are quite right Dale – I have not read the “methodology” of the latest poll.
But as it is in line with the polls the British government has been talking about for some time, do I have to?
I never claimed that the poll was a fraud. I just said that it is unwise to put trust in what the locals say (which is true).
By the way where did the “35 years” come from? 1958 was 45 years ago and Iraq was not exactly peaceful even before then. If you had said “the last several thousand years” you might have been closer to the truth.
As you know, back in the early 1960’s the main alternative to the Baathist socialists were the Communists – who liked nothing better than rape, torture and muder (just like the Baathists).
As I say I hope the adventure goes well (although I might well not have gone in for it myself – I certainly would not have talked endlessly about “weapons of mass destruction” without physical evidence that they existed, that was giving a hostage to fortune).
What I object to is Mr T. Atkins being treated like a mushroom (you know “being kept in the dark and fed on shit”), most of the local population may be wonderful people (kind to their children, lovers of small animals and so on), but trusting them is a good way to end up dead.
I happen to not share any of the dire attitudes expressed towards people from that part of the world. I expect there will be at most a few thousand deaths by then, mostly by terrorist attacks of the sort we’ve seen already. They will have a government up and running.
They are just people, no different from any of you at all.
An evening at Madden’s then?
They will have a government up and running.
I’m surprised anybody who is regular here would necessarily view that as a feature rather than a bug.
Dale writes:
“I happen to not share any of the dire attitudes expressed towards people from that part of the world. […] They are just people, no different from any of you at all.”
I know, I know.
If you prick them, do they not bleed?
If you tickle them, do they not laugh?
I know, I know.
They are warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer ….
But people – no matter how like you and me they tend to be – still have this penchant towards ethnic cleansing when they share the same ‘narrow ground’, when they don’t see themselves as belonging to the same community of fate.
Forget the Arabs and the Muslims. Just look at ourselves – at Holy Ireland, at Yugoslavia, at Cyprus.
It’s not really a question of having ‘dire attitudes’ towards different people. It’s a question of predicting, on the basis of historical experience, what is likely to happen in a specific combination of circumstances.
I’m raising the ante to 20000 violent deaths….
They are just people, no different from any of you at all.
Oh, my, no…that won’t do. That’s saying it isn’t possible for human populations to differ from one another in fundamental ways, and that’s not true at all.
You may put it down to nurture rather than nature, if you like – I honestly don’t know how much of each is implicated. Since we can no more entirely divorce them from their history and environment than we can divorce them from their genes, it really doesn’t matter.
We’ve all heard it said that Iraq is more secular and Westernized than its neighbors, so perhaps the picture isn’t as grim as the pessimists make it. But it’s a long way from a sure thing.
“Iraqis by and large want the Coalition to stay just long enough for them to get their country standing on its’ own feet”
Reformulation: after having endured US & British unilateral, illegal aggression causing death, poverty & anarchy in Iraq, the Iraqis are very happy with their invaders’ occupation.
Bravo! Goebbels couldn’t do better…
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“The population appears to be very secular for that part of the world”
A fact Saddam must be credited for. No irony intended. (Remember: Saddam & Oussama are not good old friends)
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“Iraq may not end up a democracy; but it will probably not end up a disaster”
It is already a disaster & democracy can be fostered by UN only; not by occupiers. (Even George II gets round to that)
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“In a few years it will be a very friendly place for American and British tourists to visit. I plan to be one of them”
Arrogant statement: you don’t know what the World will be like in two weeks.
Interesting thought: Iraq is supposed to be the most secular society round thereabouts. And yet look how much trouble it’s being. That should give the more neocon-ish pause in their ambitions to “democratize” the whole middle east, at gunpoint.
The Arab tradition that the majorities that count are those among the people who are heavily armed, as well as issues about polling methodology in this unusual environment, are duly noted.
However, the results of this poll do not strike me as necessarily misleading. Most Iraqis must be as aware of the danger of civil war and general strife as we are. Frankly, that awareness is probably the single biggest thing we have going for us. I have had some concern that a greater effort was not being made to increase that awareness in central Iraqi cities where coalition forces have had the most trouble.
I am sick and tired of people who disagree with a policy calling it illegal. Illegal in what way. I don’t remember the US handing over it’s sovereignity yet to the United Nations. As far as unilateral, how can it be unilateral when it is the US and Britain. That would be bilateral. But that is the hallmark of the left. Turn policy disagreements into criminal acts.
and you can’t have a leftist comment without the obligatory Nazi reference. Talk about mind numbed robots.
I think Dale is being conned – 10,000 violent deaths. Now hang on that would “just” be a crime problem DO NOT TAKE THAT BET
If there only 10,000 violent deaths in the next year it would be a miracle (the rate of violent crime in Iraq is far higher than that).
Only take the bet if it is “10,000 TERRORIST deaths” (then you might have a chance of winning).
Do I take a “dire” view of the local Arabs – YES I DO. I base my view on the evidence.
Just as I believe that my fellow English people are badly dressed and debt ridden – the ones I know are (I dress badly to).
I base my opinions on what people are like – Dale bases his opinions on what he wishes people were like.
This makes Dale a better person than me (I admit that). But I would advise Dale not to play tourist in Iraq.
Kodiak says:
“It is already a disaster & democracy can be fostered by UN only….”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
/pause, breathe
Wait, did he really say that?
/read again
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…….
Socialists are much more fun now that I’m not one of them…..
Yosemite Sam,
This is especially disgusting since Kodiak is upset that the Nazi-loving Baathists were overthrown.
Ernest Brown,
No, no, it is OK, because as much as Baathist were Nazi-loving, Saddam really styled himself as a second Stalin. Stalin was a Communist, not a Nazi. Communists may have been a bit bad, (misguided, really) but they meant well, you know.
–Interesting thought: Iraq is supposed to be the most secular society round thereabouts. And yet look how much trouble it’s being. That should give the more neocon-ish pause in their ambitions to “democratize” the whole middle east, at gunpoint.–
The reason is their neighbor and sometimes enemy. Don’t forget, Iran also claimed tourism once Iraq was under control of Saddam. It has a vested interest in bringing the mosques under its control, or numerous reason.
Compared to Germany, it really isn’t that much trouble. Fischer said we’re failing. It’s been 5 months. Took 7 years w/Germany and look how well they’re doing today – (sarcasm off).
It’s the triangle where most of this stuff is happening. Don’t forget, this is the size of CA.
Kodiak, don’t tell Denmark the UN can do better, it’s regional co-ordinator in Basra now.
With all that access and contract possibilities.
See what happens when you’re good to your “allies?” Your “allies” are good to you.
Nice cartoon in Le Monde this AM.
Yosemite Sam,
“Iraqis are very happy with their invaders’ occupation. Bravo! Goebbels couldn’t do better…”
+
“and you can’t have a leftist comment without the obligatory Nazi reference. Talk about mind numbed robots”
OK. Is that all right for you?
“Iraqis are very happy with their invaders’ occupation. Bravo! FoxNews couldn’t do better…”
The poll may well have been carried out using accepted scientific methods, but it seems significant to me that Baghdad was not one of the four cities chosen. It is all very well choosing Ramadi as a “hotbed” of resistance as a gesture towards balance, but in the absence of the biggest and most influential concentration of Iraqi citizens, it is likely to have skewed the results further.
Baghdad and Tikrit further north were prime beneficiaries of Saddam’s largesse and Baathism was born (OK, copied from the Syrians) there. And given that Baghdadis, largely secular and relatively modernised, have suddenly lost their comfort zone to rampant crime, power and water outages, transport and fuel difficulties etc, one has to conjecture that their views may have resulted in somewhat different figures.
It would be nice to be able toi believe these numbers, but I don’t think they are reliable indicators.