On the face of it this is good news for those of us who don’t want Britain to join the Euro:
The pro-single currency campaign, Britain in Europe, faces an exodus of staff, including the expected departure of Simon Buckby, the man who runs it.
The resignations have been prompted by frustration at the Government’s failure to take the lead on euro entry and a sense that the campaign had “lost its direction” after the Government’s assessment of its five tests for entry in June.
But there is a bit more to it than a campaign for something bad getting into a mess, which on the face of things would obviously be good. After all, this is a report from the Independent, which is not exactly anti-Euro.
Until recently, pro-Euro-ites have been paralysed by their belief that they ought not to say anything too critical of the Blair regime, on account of the Blair regime being so popular. But now the Blair regime is getting less popular. So now, pro-Euro campaigners need to separate themselves from Blairism. If they already want to, they now can.
The crisis has prompted the board of Britain in Europe to try to distance itself from the Labour government and return to its roots as a cross-party alliance.
It is felt the campaign will be better able to put its point across if it is not seen as a Blairite organisation, afraid of taking the lead where the Government will not.
Arguably, the reason why the case against British involvement in the Euro has been put even as forcefully as it has – you can argue about how forcefully that is, but at least that case has been put – is that the people putting this case have not bothered themselves about what effect this might have on the popularity of the Conservatives, there being no Conservative popularity to affect. They have just plugged away, communicating as best they could with the actual people. If anyone accused them of splitting the Conservatives in the process, they have just said: So? The pro-Euro people now look as if they are being pushed by events into doing the same smarter thing themselves, which is actually to argue their case in public, something which they have been notably reluctant to do for about the last thirty years, with the prevaricating results that they now so belatedly lament.
The reason why this pro-Euro organisation is now in difficulties is because it has been over-run with Blairites, who have been more concerned with keeping the Blairite policy of masterly Euro-indecision in place than they have been concerned with questioning that policy. But now their formerly willing – or just resigned to their Blairite fate – footsoldiers feel able to be publicly pissed off at all this Blairite vacuity, as they were formerly not able to be, and are leaving. Hence the “crisis”. This may weaken Britain in Europe, but it will probably strengthen the campaign for Britain adopting the Euro.
The point is, there is now liable to be a much more vigorous public campaign saying that Britain ought to adopt the Euro, instead of merely the endlessly repeated claim that it is going to anyway, so what’s the point in arguing about it?
Which could be rather a pity. Because once these people decide to take part in the Euro-debate, there is at least the possibility that you will win it, and actually persuade enough British people to be in favour of it, as enough British people presently are not.
Having a proper public debate one whether or not we should join the Euro is probably a good thing. It’s not something that we’ve really had so far; I don’t think Joe Public really knows the pros and cons of joining or not joining.
Tim’s right. It’s amazing that no referendum has been held since the UK was invited to join in 1973.
Kodiak,
No, there was a national referendum in 1975 on whether or not to stay in the EEC (as it was called then).
The pro-Euro folk have a larger problem than Blair’s unpopularity, namely the green shoots of growth in the US economy. A year ago international investors piled out of the US market and into Euroland, believing that the downturn there would be shallower than in the US. For that to be so, of course, Euroland’s dip had to be of a normal, cyclical variety. Slowly, slowly it is dawning on these geniuses that the main Euroland economies are facing structural decline reversible only with massive liberalisation, the end of trans-national economic control – starting with the hopeless Stability Pact – and a singular resolve of an order quite unobtainable in the political minefield walked by the ECB. Schroeder has had some small success in freeing up the machinery in Germany but it won’t be enough and, anyway, France is now sinking as fast as Germany was.
As America and the UK rebound, on the other hand, the ghastly spectacle in Euroland will be thrown into ever greater relief. The Euro enthusiasts in this country will simply find themselves out of ammunition. Debate or no debate, the issue is unwinnable for them in the UK.
The EUniks are in a race against time. The more the world economy and world events move forward, the more the EU will look either foolish and irrelevant or downright dangerous to potential members. Have faith in the essential mediocrity of bureaucracy, folks – in the age of information, bureaucracies will be visibly outmaneuvered by reality.
Membership deferred is membership denied. Let the debate begin, and drag out indefinitely. As long as people are talking about joining the EU, and not actually joining, the good guys are winning.
What on Earth do you all want a debate for? Who cares what Joe Public thinks about anything, certainly not me. Britain must remain out of the Euro at all costs whether the public likes it or not. We should only debate these people if we are absolutely forced into it.