I’ve had half an eye on British TV all evening, and you might be quite surprised how gung-ho it has rather suddenly become. Finally, we are getting all the stuff about what a total bastard Saddam Hussain is, from fearsome looking guys with towels on their heads. On Newsnight they’re now discussing the nuances of the fighting that might happen, with an elderly military guy who sounds confident and expert and who I’ve never seen before. Funny how war seems to cause all manner of total strangers suddenly to pop up in TV studios.
All this makes me remember that there is just one more guess about this “war” that I want now to get on the samizdata record before events overtake me and leave me having to say: “I said that! Didn’t I say that?!” So now let me say it.
There’s been a lot of grumbling in the blogosphere, and from the likes of Mark Steyn and many others, about how absurdly delayed this “war” has been, and what a “rush to war” there hasn’t been.
The dominant explanation of this now is that Dumbo the Elephant alias George W. Bush has been standing like a greyhound in the slips (Henry V – please pardon the mixing of the animal metaphors) and that Tranzi Tony Blair has been restraining Dumbo with a lot of flummery about the UN, World Opinion, and other such foolishnesses not held in very high regard in our corner of the blogosphere.
But what if the reason the “war” has been so delayed is that it has taken a long time to get it ready? If I understand the Americans correctly they’ve been planning this war since 9/12. And one of the things they have been most concerned to achieve is low casualties, on both sides. And one of the most important ways they’ve been setting about how to get that result is by throwing technology at the problem. If I’m right, the USA has been abuzz for the last eighteen months with military gadgeteering aimed at winning this war and winning it very, very well. They’ve been going as fast as they can but it has taken time, but now the job is approximately done. The new super-toys are ready. Genuinely accurate bombs will materialise, unlike last time. Magic tricks for winning street fighting, if it ever comes to that, will be deployed, and then drooled over in the colour magazines. Magic toys for neutralising whatever gas and bug weapons Saddam may have will be revealed as having achieved miracles now unimaginable. Put it this way. Do you think the yanks haven’t been doing stuff like this?
In particular I believe that genuinely accurate bombing will happen this time.
In the thirties it was confidently stated that big four engine bombers could flatten a country and win a war in about a week. Well, they tried, but at first it didn’t work, despite appalling civilian casualties. But eventually, with the A-bomb, it did work. These things can take time, but eventually they happen. I think that the world may be about to witness another of these often delayed miracles, so often promised that it is quite forgotten that it might eventually happen exactly as advertised.
The reason I so often want to put “war” into inverted commas is that – fingers crossed – so few people will (I hope) die in this thing that when it finally materialises it could seem more like the SAS putting an end to a hostage situation (with the Iraqis as the hostages) than anything resembling a regular war.
Of course the politicians and the soldiers are now being all gloomy in public, just in case it all goes wrong and they have to slug it out for a couple of blood-soaked months. Wars are never “over by Christmas” if you promise beforehand that they definitely will be. So the public story now is: it will last as long as it lasts, and until “the job is done”, and quite right too.
But if all goes well, it could all end in a flash of high-tech magic. Hence my eagerness to get this posting up now, rather than leave it until, I don’t know, tomorrow evening.
Six months ago I wasn’t at all sure that the US government was as bothered about minimising Iraqi casualties as I thought it should be. Now, I’d be very surprised if there is anything remotely like the slaughter that the peaceniks have been predicting, and which some peaceniks, I suspect, may even want.
I really hope I’m right about this. For of course this could all be wishful thinking of the most abject sort. I don’t know what’s going to happen. But I’ve now placed my bet.
Brian: This is exactly what I’ve been hearing behind the scenes from my friends in the tech game. Some very, very good people decided it was time to lay aside their qualms about designing weapons for “the military industrial complex”. Did so with a vengeance. Or for vengeance perhaps.
I really don’t think a lot of the people in the world understand the quiet long burning anger 9/11 created. It hasn’t even come *close* to burning out yet.
As I told someone here in Belfast in late 2001; “We’ll hunt down and kill al Qaeda even when they are old men in walkers.”
It’s like the jews after Nazi leaders. We won’t ever forget. We won’t ever forgive.
We’ll just kill them.
I am sure that the soon to be ‘liberated’ denizens of Iraq will be overjoyed at the thought of how much creative brilliance went into the hideous death raining from the skies.
Now, I’d be very surprised if there is anything remotely like the slaughter that the peaceniks have been predicting, and which some peaceniks, I suspect, may even want.
There is indeed a small number of so-called peace lovers who would like nothing more than for thousands of people to die on both sides just so that Bush and Blair might be embarrassed one day. For the rest of us in the peace camp, it goes like this: The war has begun; so we want the war over as quickly as possible; therefore we have to be as pro-aggressor as it is possible to be; a nasty paradox to have to live with.
I envy all you arm-chair generals. Live is very easy when war is reduced to the level of free pornography.
Eamon
“I am sure that the soon to be ‘liberated’ denizens of Iraq will be overjoyed at the thought of how much creative brilliance went into the hideous death raining from the skies.”
I think the point of the post was the hope that what rained down from the sky would be less deadly and less hideous.
Anyways, I am vaugely pro-war when the chips come down, and I definately don’t see this as “free porn”. Free porn makes me, well, feel ‘comfortable’ – war on the other hand has me going around highly strung and nervous without any good reason, feeling slightly queasy all the time. Well, I too hope it’s short and that it turns out well for all involved except Mr. Hussein and his cabal.
Regards / GulGnu
-Stabil som fan!
Eamon: I envy all you arm-chair generals. Live is very easy when war is reduced to the level of free pornography.
Free pornography? Bloody expensive pornography mate! Do you have any idea how much that stuff costs and the fact that we are the ones who paid for it?
Yeah, it would be lovely to have peace in Iraq, but are you seriously saying that Iraq under Saddam Hussain and his Ba’athist Socialist regime is peace in any meaningful sense?
So if I was to ask the good folks in the ‘peace camp’ what effective measure they would like to see implemented to end the monstrous state of affairs right now in Iraq, are they going to have any alternatives to war that will result in Iraq ending up not ruled by Hussain or his family? As I usually find the same people who oppose war also oppose sanctions, it is hard to not think that in reality the ‘peace camp’ is actually a life support organization for the guy who slaughtered the inhabitants of Halabja with poison gas. That may not be the intention but is that not the truth?
Iraq will never be a viable civil society unless Ba’athism is overthrown and that is not going to happen by banging drums and singing Kumbayah over and over again.
Eamon posted on “The Smeared-Pages Fallacy”.
(“free pornography”)
<><><><><> (head shakes)
Also let’s remember that coalition forces (read: Yanks & Brits) truly want to minimize loss of civilian life and property precisely because they will be the ones responsibile for rebuilding.
It’s human nature to be much more careful about making a mess when you’re the one who must clean it up.
Eamon, I believe the correct description of your post is troll pornography.
War without collateral damage? That would be nice. Many people I’ve talked to scream on the top of their lungs that people will die. Yes, people will die, most likely people from Saddams own army. Civilians? Probably, though we all hope not. The ones still screaming about people getting killed are most of the time in possesion of a naive world view. There’s only One right thought and opinion. Nothing else matters.
I’m throwing the same argument back to them, that people will die if Saddam and his pals remains in power, not only Iraqis, but God knows who’s next?
I don’t think many civilians will die in this war. I also hope that relatively few Iraqi soldiers can be killed, simply because these poor bastards are in most cases ordinary people with no love for Saddan Hussein who have been conscripted. The coalition forces clearly can kill a great many Iraqi soldiers if necessary, but hopefully they will not have to.
It’s interesting to look at the propaganda leaflets that the Americans are dropping on the Iraqis (that CENTCOM have placed on the web ). There is a big focus on “Fight and we will kill you. Don’t fight, and you will get to return to your familes and see your children grow up and live long and prosperous lives”, combined with “Be involved in the use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in any way, and we will use our all seeing technology to hunt you down and make you suffer, regarless of what it takes”. The Americans at least seem to be trying to send the message that they will not kill Iraqi soldiers indiscriminately if they can possible help it. Obviously if they succeed in this endeavour and can get themselves a reputation for being merciful, then it will help in governing and rebuilding the country later, so I have no reason to doubt the Americans intentions here.
Still, of course, things can go wrong, in which case it is possible to slip in terms of acting the way you originally intended. However, I am hopeful at least for now.
I messed up the HTML. Humble apologies.
Was the wait worth it?
War never goes as planned, which makes it extremely popular for “what if” speculation, but ill suited for assessing the outcome of alternate courses of action with any certainty. Thus we will never know the true cost, and can only pray our troops and the citizens of Iraq don’t pay too high a price for freedom.
We do know that the wait flushed out the Axis of Weasels. An unforeseen consequence to be sure, but still a valuable one. Now the world knows Chirac’s word is worthless. Nations now have even less reason to trust France/Germany now that their true nature has been exposed. Vive Nouveau Europe.
Don’t watch much TV so I’d love to know whether British TV viewers have yet been introduced to the Project for the New American Century at: http://www.newamericancentury.org/statementofprinciples.htm
For me, it was hugely reassuring to see how many other Americans have roundly condemned the project, as at: http://www.newamerica.net/index.cfm?pg=article&pubID=1172 and http://home.earthlink.net/~platter/neo-conservatism/pnac.html and http://www.bigmagic.com/pages/blackj/column78a.html
Benjamin Netanyahu testified before Senate armed services commitee last fall, and asked if we should invade iraq to disarm and destroy the Ba’arthist regime, he said yes, but let us prepare. So I think Blair, Straw, and Greenstock have been running interference for Israel; and the Media fell for it, hook line and sinker. What a bunch of stoopid K*nts!