Appropriately given that we have been mentioning the subject of optimism and pessimism, Paul Marks says why he sees the cup as half full.
People who read my blogs (such as the latest one Ignorance has never been an impediment to journalism) may regard the idea that ‘Paul Marks is an optimist’ as a sick joke. However, I do not regard telling the truth (whether about, New Labour, the Telegraph papers, the financial system, or anything else) as giving in to despair – on the contrary understanding reality is the first step to genuine hope (rather than fantasy).
I do believe that “things will turn out all right” (not for me – but for world generally), and I want to briefly say why I think this.
My belief is based on two points. Firstly that the mainstream left are not savages and secondly that most people are capable of learning.
Take the example of California. By all accounts the present Governor (Gray Davis) will be reelected in November. Mr Davis is a bad Governor. He endlessly increases taxes and spending (he has an “F” grade from the Cato Institute), in what was a big government State even before he was elected. Mr Davis and his friends in the State Legislature also love regulations and blame all of California’s problems on greedy business people (even the power shortage was not caused by price controls – it was all a plot by Enron).
When Mr Davis is reelected there is very little chance of him reforming. He will carry on in his statist way and California will continue to slide – especially as the economic problems of the United States (which will get worse next year) will prevent much expansion of federal aid.
So why am I optimistic about California? Because Mr Davis (and most of his followers) is not a beast – he will not set up a police state, he will not kill or lock up his political foes. Some leftists in California would indeed do these things (indeed I suspect that they desire the taste of human flesh in their mouths and the feeling of human blood flowing down their throats). However, such leftists in California are a tiny minority and I believe that they will not come to power (especially as so many of them choose to be active in fringe groups rather than the Democratic party).
Millions of people in California will vote for Bill Simon this November. He will lose, but he will have told them the truth – that the path of statism is a bad path. At the next election (2006) the people who see that statism does not work will not be minority – they will be the majority. Must people can learn IF they have evidence and IF people are prepared to tell them the truth (even at the cost of losing elections in the short term).
What will be true for California in 2006 will eventually be true for the world. The mainstream left (in Britain, France, Germany etc as well as the United States) is not interested in eating people. When their policies fail they will not set up a police state to try and cling to power. IF politicians are prepared to tell people the truth (or even part of the truth) eventually this message will get through to people (as they see the evidence with their own eyes) and reform will take place.
It takes only ONE major nation to reform for this to spread. There are (for example) many free market politicians in the United States (although not the man who sits in the White House). After Mr Bush loses in 2004 the left will come to power. But the Democrats will not feast on human flesh, they will simply flap about as the economy continues to fall apart – and in 2008 free market Republicans will be elected. The example of the United States will influence the rest of the world (where people will be desperate for a way out of economic decline).
Reform may even start before this. In New Zealand the left has just be reelected – but it was not the landslide they were predicting and many of the opposition groups had people within them who told the voters some of the truth. As the economy declines this will be remembered – and in the next election (2005) Labour may well be kicked out and reform take place.
What lessons for Britain? Simple enough – politicians should tell people the truth (that the path of taxes, spending, regulations and funny money) will not work. As the economy collapses these politicians will eventually come to power with a mandate to clear away statism – so that people can start to rebuild civil society.
It will not be easy or quick (and I will not live to see it), but statism will be driven back and civil society will be rebuilt.
Paul Marks
