Having read the article based on the observations of Marian Tupy it has occured to me that Jean-Marie Le Pen could be the next President of France.
Now before anybody goes getting their shorts in a knot, please note that I said ‘could’ not ‘will’ because Marian reminds us that an alarmingly high percentage of the electorate voted not just for Le Pen or his fellow traveller Bruno Megret, but also for Soviet-worshipping loop-de-loos like Jean-Pierre Chevenement and Arlette Legullier. Altogther, more than 30% of those who voted, voted for totalitarian government.
It is widely assumed in the press and elsewhere that the hard left will throw its weight and numbers behind Jacques Chirac out of disgust at Le Pen but Marian points out that this is a dangerously flawed assumption. In fact, they are just as likely to throw in their lot with Le Pen and, if they do, then Chirac is struggling.
It is equally assumed that the 28% or so who failed to turn out will turn out this time for fear of a Le Pen victory. But, again, this could be quite wrong. What if a lot of those abstainers are Le Pen sympathisers who failed to register their vote because they felt that he had no chance of winning? Now that he does have a chance, will then weigh-in? If they do, then Le Pen will win.
Of course, this is all just speculation and, on balance, the odds probably do favour Chirac but I think it unwise to regard his victory as a foregone conclusion, because it isn’t.
