We are developing the social individualist meta-context for the future. From the very serious to the extremely frivolous... lets see what is on the mind of the Samizdata people.

Samizdata, derived from Samizdat /n. - a system of clandestine publication of banned literature in the USSR [Russ.,= self-publishing house]

Samizdata slogan of the day:

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away

-Phillip K. Dick

Sum of All Fears

According to Debka, the nightmare whose name I dared not speak may be upon us:

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources think it possible that the al Qaeda chief may have accumulated as many nuclear devices of unknown types as Saddam, with only a part of his nuclear stock kept in Afghanistan; some devices may even have been smuggled into the United States.

Earlier in the same article they imply that Saddam and bin Laden are co-operating on nuclear weapons. Now Debkafile is sometimes so far in front of the story they are off the planet, but they are correct often enough that I can not reject this story out of hand. Additionally, there is little here that doesn’t jive with my own hunches and my own expectations of behavior of the various players.

No one has ever satisfactorily explained to me what happened to the missing Russian tactical nuclear weapons described in a multi-page spread here in the UK some ten years ago. Taken altogether it is enough that I suggest US residents take SFC Red Thomas’ NBC survival advice [Words of Wisdom About Gas, Germs, and Nukes, Samizdata 2001-11-08] very seriously indeed.

A Time For Heroes

From the first recognized day of the war I have been reporting character and true heroism are alive and well in America. That character came packaged in all sorts of shapes and sizes including very “non-traditional” ones: a gay San Francisco rugby player as an example. We simply cannot say enough about these very ordinary people who stepped onto an airplane in a world at peace. Within a few hours they had fought and died in the first battle of the war. These individuals acted in a way that would honour the noblest traditions of any Corp of the US military. Unlike a soldier who is trained, briefed, ordered and given a mission, these people improvised their own structure and strategy on the spot and then implimented it. I find it heartening that the President and the Nation recognize this:

“Above all, we will live in a spirit of courage and optimism. Our nation was born in that spirit, as immigrants yearning for freedom courageously risked their lives in search of greater opportunity. That spirit of optimism and courage still beckons people across the world who want to come here. And that spirit of optimism and courage must guide those of us fortunate enough to live here.

Courage and optimism led the passengers on Flight 93 to rush their murderers to save lives on the ground. Led by a young man whose last known words were the Lord’s Prayer and “Let’s roll.” He didn’t know he had signed on for heroism when he boarded the plane that day. Some of our greatest moments have been acts of courage for which no one could have ever prepared.

We will always remember the words of that brave man, expressing the spirit of a great country. We will never forget all we have lost, and all we are fighting for. Ours is the cause of freedom. We’ve defeated freedom’s enemies before, and we will defeat them again.

We cannot know every turn this battle will take. Yet we know our cause is just and our ultimate victory is assured. We will, no doubt, face new challenges. But we have our marching orders: My fellow Americans, let’s roll.” — President George W Bush, November 8th, 2001.

In honouring these fine people we honour ourselves, for “They” are us. Let us hope we live up to the high bar of courage they have set for us.

Samizdata quote of the day

Libertarians do not seek chaos but rather a more spontaneous order

– Perry de Havilland, said at a ‘Brian’s Friday’ event

Is real life starting to imitate computer games?

There is an interesting Boston Herald article about the draconian plans to, in effect, declare martial law in the USA in the event of a bioweaponized attack of smallpox.

Probably the best computer game yet made is Deus Ex, in which you, the player, take on the role of J. C. Denton, an ‘enhanced’ agent of uncertain background and shifting loyalties.

Initially you start out as a good little statist secret policeman working in the USA and supporting FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (which actually does exist in real life) as it tries to distribute vaccine to key people as a terrible disease ravages New York city in the near future… and fighting against the ‘terrorist’ bad guys who for some reason are trying to thwart FEMA. Eventually you end up working for these self same ‘terrorists’ and fighting against your previous employer when it turns out that the plague is really just an excuse for FEMA to mastermind a coup d’etat, suspend all civil rights and take over the US government.

Read the Boston Herald article and then ask yourself…is reality starting to take it’s lead from computer games? Scary thought.

Deus Ex is a superb game. Unlike most ‘first person shooters’ in which you interact with people mostly by shooting them, in Deus Ex you have to actually talk to them (and of course some you do indeed end up shooting). This is a game which actually has characters expressing political and moral views, from mystical totalitarianism to cynical statism to well armed libertarianism! Also, how many other computer games do you know of in which during a visit to Paris, you can find yourself being subjected to a believably idiotic existentialist argument? Likewise, whilst stealing some weapons from an arms dealer’s house, if you click on a book next to his bed you will find yourself reading a chapter of Common Sense by Tom Paine. Elsewhere, you may or may not encounter two utterly incidental characters who are clearly very closely based on The Story of O. This is a superb and intelligent game that does not treat the player like an ignoramus.

However let’s hope it is not also an accurate vision of the future!

Archane mobile wisdom

Archane mobile wisdom
News you can use

Tip: do this before your mobile phone is stolen!
(translation: that means ‘cell phone’ to you bloggers in the United Snakes of America)

You may find the tip below of interest but hopefully you will never have to make use of the knowlage.

A little ‘get your own back’ if you have your mobile stolen.To check your Mobile phone’s serial number, key in the following digits on your phone:
*#06#

A 15 digit code will appear on the screen. This number is unique to your handset. Write it down and keep it safe.

Should your phone get stolen, you can phone your service provider and give them this code. They will then block your handset so even if the thief changes the Sim card your phone will be totally useless. You probably won’t get your phone back, but at least you know that the thief can’t use/sell it either. If everybody did this, there would be no point in stealing mobile phones!

Impart this archane wisdom to as many people as possible.

Dave Shaw
Samizdata admin technoblogger

The Skeptical Environmentalist

May I strongly recommend to fellow bloggers to go out and get a Green friend a copy of Bjorn Lomborg’s book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, copyright 2001, p515, Cambridge University Press. A great book, written by a leftist former Greenpeace member who saw the light after reading material by the late, great and much-missed Julian L. Simon. Lomborg is that rarity, a Green with a thirst for the hard facts who is not afraid to change his mind if the facts don’t fit a preconceived view. Already getting rave reviews.

Read the author’s excellent summary at The Economist here.

Samizdata slogan of the day:

Turning to Communism for fear of Fascism is like suicide for fear of death

– Perry de Havilland

Hawala bashing: The arrogance, stupidity and futility of ‘power’

An article in the Washington Post reports moves against a couple of the larger ‘Hawala’ networks. Also: “Under the new anti-terrorism legislation passed by Congress last month, hawalas will be required by year-end to register with the Treasury Department and, like banks, to report suspicious activities, such as unusually large cash transfers.”

The idiots seem to completely miss the point about why people use hawala (or Chinese ‘Fei Qian’) to move money internationally. It is so that the state cannot see what they are doing. To demand hawalas register with the state and report ‘suspicious activities’ is rather like passing a law requiring bank robbers to register and file a report prior to conducting a robbery. Do terrorists use hawala? Probably. So do millions of other people. Will they manage to shut the system down (which has been around since the 11th Century in India, China and other parts of Asia)? My guess is they will be even less successful than that other triumph of the state’s excursion into international paramilitary policing, namely the ‘Drug War’. These hawalas occur within ethnically homogenous tight knit communities. It is going to be impossible to shut down more than a few of these dispersed, multiply redundant networks as they are semi-underground as it is and extremely easy to set up again by others if any given hawala is disrupted.

What is a hawala?

A hawala (or fei qian) is a simple network set up to transfur funds internationally, usually using a member of an extended family or personal friend on both sides of the network (though a few larger hawalas are almost like banks). Vijay (or Abdul or Deng) goes to a hawala (typically a small back street office) in London (or Los Angeles or Paris or Toronto) and gives them a quantity of cash plus a small brokerage fee. He tells the hawala who he wants to collect the money in Calcutta (or Karachi or Cairo or Shanghai) and then leaves. The business is conducted with a handshake and trust. The hawala in London calls his contact in Calcutta (often a cousin or other family member) and tells him how much to disburse and to whom. This is often done on the phone but increasingly it is done by PGP encrypted e-mail. Next day, a relative of Vijay (or Abdul or Deng) goes to the hawala in Calcutta, identifies himself to the associated hawala there and collects his cash. The hawala run accounts with each other and periodically settle up the old fashioned way: a guy with a suitcase packed full of used 50 pound notes (or 100 dollar bills) gets on a plane in London, flies to Calcutta and settles the tab in cash. It is that simple!

In fact they are an excellent example of highly successful, completely unregulated, handshake based international capitalism. Hence is it hardly surprising so many people in government do not like these networks as it gives lie to all the smug claims about the supposed superiority of the West’s regulated international financial systems.

The Panopticon State is at it again… all of them!

As usual, the state wants to see all and know all… of course it will still understand nothing. Wired magazine has a good article about the current state of play.

Remember boys and girls, when crypto is outlawed, only outlaws will have crypto. I have the greatest confidence we will always find new and innovative ways of keeping the state blind, deaf and dumb about things that are none of it’s damn business… namely our business.

A Doomsday Primer

The following is an excellent primer on how to deal with the various unconventional weapons likely (or not) to be used by your basic anti-social anti-liberty terrorist types. It is also a wonderful counter to the all-Anthrax-all-the-time bombardment being conducted by the mainstream US media.
The skinny for those of you who may even now be in the midst of a swirling noxious cloud and don’t have the time to read the whole text is hold your breath, walk away and wash your hands.

Words of Wisdom About Gas, Germs, and Nukes

By SFC Red Thomas, Armor Master Gunner
U.S. Army (Ret) 10.19.01

Since the media have decided to scare everyone with predictions of chemical, biological, or nuclear warfare on our turf I decided to write a paper and keep things in their proper perspective. I am a retired military weapons, munitions, and training expert.

Lesson number one: In the mid 1990s there was a series of nerve gas attacks on crowded Japanese subway stations. Given perfect conditions for an attack,less than 10% of the people there were injured (the injured were better in a few hours) and only one percent of the injured died. CBS-Television’s 60 Minutes once had a fellow telling us that one drop of nerve gas could kill a thousand people. He didn’t tell you the thousand dead people per drop was theoretical. Drill Sergeants exaggerate how terrible this stuff is to keep the recruits awake in class (I know this because I was a Drill Sergeant too).

Forget everything you’ve ever seen on TV, in the movies, or read in a novel about this stuff, it was all a lie (Read this sentence again out loud!). These weapons are about terror, if you remain calm, you will probably not die.

This is far less scary than the media and their “experts” make it sound. Chemical weapons are categorized as Nerve, Blood, Blister, and Incapacitating agents. Contrary to the hype of reporters and politicians, they are not weapons of mass destruction. They are means of “Area Denial,” effective to keep an enemy out of a particular zone for a limited period of time: terror weapons that don’t destroy anything. When you leave the area you almost always leave the risk.

That’s the difference; you can leave the area and the risk. Soldiers may have to stay put and sit through it and that’s why they need all that spiffy gear.

These are not gasses; they are vapors and/or airborne particles. Any such agent must be delivered in sufficient quantity to kill or injure, and that defines when and how it’s used.

Every day we have a morning and evening atmospheric inversion where “stuff,” suspended in the air gets pushed down. This inversion is why allergies (pollen) and air pollution are worst at these times of the day.

So, a chemical attack will have its best effect an hour of so either side of sunrise or sunset. Also, being vapors and airborne particles, the agents are heavier than air, so they will seek low places like ditches, basements and underground garages. This stuff won’t work when it’s freezing, it doesn’t last when it’s hot, and wind spreads it too thin too fast.

Attackers have to get this stuff on you, or, get you to inhale it, for it to work. They also have to get the concentration of chemicals high enough to kill or injure you: too little and it’s nothing, too much and it’s wasted.

What I hope you’ve gathered by this point is that a chemical weapons attack that kills a lot of people is incredibly hard to achieve with military grade agents and equipment. So you can imagine how hard it would be for terrorists. The more you know about this stuff, the more you realize how hard it is to use.

A Case of Nerves
We’ll start by talking about nerve agents. You have these in your house: plain old bug killer (like Raid) is nerve agent. All nerve agents work the same way; they are cholinesterase inhibitors that mess up the signals your nervous system uses to make your body function. It can harm you if you get it on your skin but it works best if you to inhale it. If you don’t die in the first minute and you can leave the area, you’re probably going to live.

The military’s antidotes for all nerve agents are atropine and pralidoxime chloride. Neither one of these does anything to cure the nerve agent. They send your body into overdrive to keep you alive for five minutes. After that the agent is used up. Your best protection is fresh air and staying calm.

Listed below are the symptoms for nerve agent poisoning.
Sudden headache, Dimness of vision (someone you’re looking at will have pinpointed pupils), Runny nose, Excessive saliva or drooling, Difficulty breathing, Tightness in chest, Nausea, Stomach cramps, Twitching of exposed skin where a liquid just got on you.

If you are in public and you start experiencing these symptoms, first ask yourself, did anything out of the ordinary just happen, a loud pop, did someone spray something on the crowd? Are other people getting sick too? Is there an odor of new mown hay, green corn, something fruity, or camphor where it shouldn’t be?

If the answer is yes, then calmly (if you panic you breathe faster and inhale more air/poison) leave the area and head upwind, or outside. Fresh air is the best “right now antidote.” If you have a blob of liquid that looks like molasses or Karo syrup on you; blot it or scrape it off and away from yourself with anything disposable.

This stuff works based on your body weight: What a crop duster uses to kill bugs won’t hurt you unless you stand there and breathe it in real deep, then lick the residue off the ground for while.

Remember, the attackers have to do all the work, they have to get the concentration up and keep it up for several minutes, while all you have to do is quit getting it on you and quit breathing it by putting space between yourself and the attack.

Bad Blood and Blisters
Blood agents are cyanide or arsine. They affect your blood’s ability to provide oxygen to your tissues. The scenario for attack would be the same as nerve agent. Look for a pop or someone splashing or spraying something and folks around there getting woozy or falling down. The telltale smells are bitter almonds or garlic where it shouldn’t be. The symptoms are blue lips, blue under the fingernails rapid breathing.

The military’s antidote is amyl nitride and, just like nerve agent antidote, it just keeps your body working for five minutes till the toxins are used up. Fresh air is the your best individual chance

Blister agents (distilled mustard) are so nasty that nobody wants to even handle them, let alone use them. Blister agents are just as likely to harm the user as the target. They’re almost impossible to handle safely and may have delayed effects of up to 12 hours. The attack scenario is also limited to the things you’d see from other chemicals. If you do get large, painful blisters for no apparent reason, don’t pop them. If you must, don’t let the liquid from the blister get on any other area: the stuff just keeps on spreading. Soap, water, sunshine, and fresh air are this stuff’s enemy.

Bottom line on chemical weapons (and it’s the same if they use industrial chemical spills): They are intended to make you panic, to terrorize you, to herd you like sheep to the wolves. If there is an attack, leave the area and go upwind, or to the sides of the wind stream. You’re more likely to be hurt by a drunk driver on any given day than be hurt by one of these attacks. Your odds get better if you leave the area. Soap, water, time, and fresh air really deal this stuff a knock-out-punch. Don’t let fear of an isolated attack rule your life. The odds are really on your side.

Up and Atom
Nuclear bombs: These are the only weapons of mass destruction on Earth. The effects of a nuclear bomb are heat, blast, EMP, and radiation. If you see a bright flash of light like the sun, where the sun isn’t, fall to the ground!

The heat will be over a second. Then there will be two blast waves, one out going, and one on its way back. Don’t stand up to see what happened after the first wave. Wait. Everything that’s going to happen will have happened in two full minutes.

Any nuclear weapons used by terrorists will be low yield devices and will not level whole cities. If you live through the heat, blast, and initial burst of radiation, you’ll probably live for a very very long time. Radiation will not create fifty foot tall women, or giant ants and grasshoppers the size of tanks. These will be at the most 1 kiloton bombs; that’s the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT.

Here’s the real hazard: Flying debris and radiation will kill a lot of exposed (not all)! people within a half mile of the blast. Under perfect conditions this is about a half mile circle of death and destruction, but when it’s done it’s done.

EMP stands for Electro Magnetic Pulse and it will fry every electronic device for a good distance. It’s impossible to say what and how far, but probably not over a couple of miles from ground zero is a good guess. Cars, cell phones, computers, ATMs, you name it, all will be out of order. There are lots of kinds of radiation, but , physically,you only need to worry about three: alpha, beta, and gamma. The others you have lived with for years.

You need to worry about “Ionizing radiation,” little sub atomic particles that go whizzing along at the speed of light. They hit individual cells in your body, kill the nucleus and keep on going. That’s how you get radiation poisoning: You have so many dead cells in your body that the decaying cells poison you. It’s the same as people getting radiation treatments for cancer, only a bigger area gets irradiated.

The good news is you don’t have to just sit there and take it, and there are lots you can do rather than panic. First, your skin will stop alpha particles, a page of a news paper or your clothing will stop beta particles. Then you just have to try and avoid inhaling dust that’s contaminated with atoms that are emitting these things and you’ll be generally safe from them.

Gamma rays are particles that travel like rays (quantum physics makes my brain hurt) and they create the same damage as alpha and beta particles only they keep going and kill lots of cells as they go all the way through your body. It takes a lot to stop these things, lots of dense material. On the other hand it takes a lot of this to kill you.

Your defense is as always to not panic. Basic hygiene and normal preparation are your friends. All canned or frozen food is safe to eat. The radiation poisoning will not affect plants, so fruits and vegetables are OK if there’s no dust on them (Rinse them off if there is). If you don’t have running water and you need to collect rain water or use water from wherever, just let it sit for thirty minutes and skim off the water gently from the top. The dust with the bad stuff in it will settle and the remaining water can be used for the toilet which will still work if you have a bucket of water to pour in the tank.

The Germs’ Terms
Finally there’s biological warfare. There’s not much to cover here. Basic personal hygiene and sanitation will take you further than a million doctors. Wash your hands often, don’t share drinks, food, sloppy kisses, etc., …with strangers. Keep your garbage can with a tight lid on it, don’t have standing water (like old buckets, ditches, or kiddy pools) laying around to allow mosquitoes breeding room.

This stuff is carried by vectors, that is bugs, rodents, and contaminated material. If biological warfare is as easy as the TV makes it sound, why has Saddam Hussein spent twenty years, millions, and millions of dollars trying to get it right? If you’re clean of person and home, eat well and are active, you’re going to live.

Overall preparation for any terrorist attack is the same as you’d take for a big storm. If you want a gas mask, fine, go get one. I know this stuff and I’m not getting one and I told my Mom not to bother with one either (How’s that for confidence?). We have a week’s worth of cash, several days worth of canned goods and plenty of soap and water. We don’t leave stuff out to attract bugs or rodents so we don’t have them.

These terrorist people can’t conceive of a nation this big with as much resources as it has. These weapons are made to cause panic, terror, and to demoralize. If we don’t run around like sheep, they won’t use this stuff after they find out it’s no fun and does them little good. The government is going nuts over this stuff because they have to protect every inch of America. You only have to protect yourself, and by doing that, you help the country.

Finally, there are millions of caveats to everything I wrote here and you can think up specific scenarios in which my advice wouldn’t be the best. This article is supposed to help the greatest number of people under the greatest number of situations. If you don’t like my work, don’t nitpick, just sit down and explain chemical, nuclear, and biological warfare in a document around three pages long yourself. This is how we the people of the United States can rob these people of their most desired goal, your terror.

SFC Red Thomas (Ret) Armor Master Gunner Mesa, AZ
Unlimited reproduction and distribution is authorized. Just give me credit for my work, and, keep in context.

An interesting twist in the maze of identification technology

Once perfected, you may want to be a bit careful about what you pick up. The nefariously minded can doubtless dream up a slew of innocuous methods to scan your prints and use them later for their own evil purposes. Just as facial recognition software will push the eyeglass and false mustache fashion, look to print scanners to herald the return of elbow length gloves.

Sensor-on-a-chip passes fingerprint test

from the Morgan Chase Tech Industry Daily
The EntréPad fingerprint sensor fits onto a single chip and is less than a centimeter square–small enough for use in cell phones and PDAs, ZDNet News reported yesterday. The device has low power requirements and uses under ten milliwatts when imaging. A finger to be identified is applied to the top surface of the chip, which has an especially hardened coating. Identification takes place in under a second.

The sensor works by detecting the pattern of living cells beneath the dead epidermis. It creates a low-power field of radio waves that are distorted by the conductive salty fluids in the skin cells. A matrix of sensors on the chip’s surface measures and charts this distortion, and the rest of the chip recreates the fingerprint image for analysis. The pattern of the cells beneath the epidermis is identical to that on the surface itself.

Comment: Because the sensor doesn’t react to the surface of the finger, it can’t be distracted by changes to that surface – calluses, dirt or ageing aren’t registered. The company said that as part of its tests, employees attempted to remove their fingerprints using abrasion, but this didn’t affect the accuracy of the measurements. Ouch. Startups, it seems, draw a very committed type of employee.

Biometrics–the science of identifying people through personal attributes–is increasingly being seen as an important part of security. Fingerprints and iris recognition are among the most accurate and reliable methods being considered. Voice recognition is also attractive — because it doesn’t require physical presence, it is more attractive for remote authentication — though, as a result, there are a lot more technical hurdles to overcome.